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Posted on August 23, 2023 by grim

From Fortune:

Housing market affordability is worse now than at the height of the housing bubble in 2006

On Monday, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 7.48%, marking the highest level since the year 2000. Even prior to this recent surge in mortgage rates, housing affordability, as monitored by the Atlanta Fed, had already deteriorated beyond the levels seen at the housing bubble’s peak in 2006. Once this latest mortgage rate surge is factored in, August 2023 will become the worst month for housing affordability this century. 

The journey to this predicament can be traced back to last year’s sharp rise in mortgage rates, which escalated from 3% to over 7%. That rate surge, coupled with the Pandemic Housing Boom pushing U.S. home prices up over 40% in just over two years, deteriorated housing affordability across the nation.

“The housing market is at a pivotal point as we head into fall. Mortgage rates are now at more than a two-decade high, and for some home shoppers, those higher rates are enough to cause them to step back from the market,” wrote Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, in a statement to Fortune. “It is likely to be a very slow fall [in the] housing market this year. Home prices, which had rebounded this summer, will dip in some markets as new listing activity increases at the same time a segment of the homebuying population sits the market out.”

While Sturtevant doesn’t expect “major [house] price corrections since supply is still at historically low levels and overall economic conditions remain healthy,” she does see risk in overheated housing markets. House prices in places like Austinand Boise have already started to fall again.

“The markets at greatest risk of price declines are those where affordability challenges are the worst, including some West Coast markets, as well as places where prices have run up quickly, including in parts of the Sunbelt,” Sturtevant says.

Posted in Crisis, Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 123 Comments

Sustainable?

Posted on August 22, 2023 by grim

From Yahoo Finance:

Goldman Sachs no longer expects US home prices to decline in 2023

Goldman Sachs housing analysts no longer think home prices will fall this year. Instead, they are forecasting a slight increase.

“We are revising our home price forecasts higher, to 1.8% for full-year 2023 vs. -2.2% prior, and 3.5% in 2024 vs. 2.8% prior,” Vinay Viswanathan, a fixed income strategist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note for the firm’s housing team. “These forecasts imply home prices will remain roughly unchanged through [the] year-end and then return to trend growth levels in 2024.”

This comes as home prices have resumed an upward trend and mortgage rates remain elevated, creating a bleak homeownership situation for many Americans. Goldman Sachs analysts previously thought that higher mortgage rates would put more downward pressure on home prices.

After declining month over month for seven straight months late last year and into 2023, home prices reversed course in February have stayed that way through May, the latest month for which there is data from Case-Shiller’s national price index.

Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, said the data backs the case that the final month of monthly declines was in January.
…

Based on the firm’s housing affordability index hitting record lows, the Goldman Sachs analysts expected that home prices would need to decline nationwide before buyers would bite. But that conclusion has changed.

“We trace most of this demand to non-economic sources: household formation and seasonal turnover,” Viswanathan wrote. “While high frequency data suggests housing turnover may moderate, household formation is well above its long-term trend.”
…

Housing affordability has worsened over the past year due to high mortgage rates, with the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage climbing north of 7% in the past week, Freddie Mac reported. 

While so far many homebuyers have swallowed these increased costs, they “demonstrated behavior that, in our view, reflects unsustainable adaptations to elevated mortgage rates,” Goldman Sachs noted.

For instance, the average debt-to-income ratio on conforming purchase mortgages is over 38%, “a significant aberration from post-Global Financial Crisis averages,” Viswanathan wrote.

“In addition, smaller and lower price homes have seen stronger price growth than larger, higher-quality properties. That said, we expect mortgage rates fall by 100 basis point through the end of next year, somewhat stabilizing affordability,” Viswanathan wrote.


Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 139 Comments

Dark clouds ahead, or too much pessimism?

Posted on August 21, 2023 by grim

From ROI-NJ:

Survey: Will N.J.’s economy remain as is or worsen by end of 2023?

How about that economy?

The answer may not be that good: 44% of 434 certified public accountants surveyed by the New Jersey Society of Certified Public Accountants believed New Jersey’s economy is expected to stay about the same during the second half of the year compared to the first half … but an equal number (44%) believed it will worsen, and only 12% think it will improve.

Inflation and the ability to find skilled personnel are two of the biggest challenges facing survey participants this year, at 66% and 53%, respectively, followed by state and federal policies that are unfriendly to businesses (40%) and rising interest rates (39%).

Going forward, respondents said the most helpful steps government could take to improve business conditions include implementing measures to ease inflation (73%) and reducing burdensome regulations (66%). Respondents recommended addressing the needs of small business, lessening the tax burdens of individuals, cutting government spending, reducing the pension burden and incentivizing people to work.

“As strategic advisers to their clients and organizations, CPAs are good sounding boards about the business environment. Our members always have a great read on what’s important for growth and sustaining business operations,” Aiysha Johnson, executive director and CEO of the NJCPA, said.

This year’s survey, conducted in June and sponsored by Bernstein Private Wealth Management, was conducted to gauge CPAs’ outlook on the national and New Jersey economies midway through the year.

The moderate stance is more positive than the same economic survey initiated by the NJCPA in 2022, which showed nearly 65% of CPAs believed New Jersey’s economy would worsen during the second half of the year and 28% of CPAs believed economic conditions in the state would stay the same. Only 7% thought it would improve.

Last year, the survey showed similar top concerns, but inflation at that time was a heavier worry at 73%, followed by the availability of skilled personnel at 57%.

“Surveys like this one are a good way to gauge sentiment in all facets of society. It’s not surprising that inflation was more of a concern last year,” Roosevelt Bowman, a senior investment strategist with Bernstein Private Wealth Management, said.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 63 Comments

Sorry about your job

Posted on August 20, 2023 by grim

From the Record:

NJ job market numbers are out: See where we’re headed

New Jersey’s private sector lost 9,500 jobs in the past two months and the unemployment rate ticked up from 3.7% to 3.9% according to a preliminary jobs report released Thursday morning by the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development. 

That comes despite 73,300 new jobs added over the past year, 59,500 of them in the private sector — signs pointing toward a cooling job market according to economists and other analysts.  

The figures come amid 11 rate hikes by the U.S central bank; a move designed to taper economic growth and curb inflation.

In September 2022, the state’s jobless rate was 2.8%, according to Federal Reserve data — though 3.9% is still a far cry from the 15.5% unemployment seen in May 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.
…
The New Jersey job market seems to be slowing. Last year, it added nearly 130,000 jobs. For the first seven months of 2023, the state added 37,700 jobs. 

“The economy was moving at 85 miles per hour, it shifted down to 70 miles per hour,” said James Hughes, a Rutgers professor and former dean at the university’s Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy. “It’s still speeding, but you’re cooling off a little bit.” 
…
Preliminary figures from the state Labor Department show that there were 4.3 million people working either in the public or private sector, compared to 4.26 million people in July last year.
…
There was a total job increase of 1,000 jobs last month. The increase of 8,400 jobs in the public sector offset the loss of 7,400 jobs in the private sector.

In July, New Jersey tied with its neighbor of New York for a 3.9% unemployment rate, according to preliminary federal data, and fared better than Delaware with a 4.1% unemployment rate.

Neighboring Pennsylvania had a 3.5% unemployment rate. The national unemployment rate as of July was 3.5%. It will be updated Sept. 1.

State labor officials noted in the report Thursday that the rate increased in part due to “additional residents entering the labor force.” 

Posted in Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 31 Comments

20 year high

Posted on August 18, 2023 by grim

From NPR:

Mortgage rates just hit their highest since 2002

Mortgage rates jumped to their highest level in more than two decades, making home-ownership even less affordable for many would-be buyers.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate home loan climbed to 7.09% this week, according to mortgage giant Freddie Mac. That’s the highest it’s been since April 2002 and comes after the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates aggressively in a bid to fight inflation.

Mortgage rates have more than doubled in the last two years, sharply raising the cost of a typical home loan. The monthly payment on a $350,000 house today, assuming a 20% down payment, would be $1,880, compared to $1,159 in 2021, when interest rates were below 3%. 

“A lot of buyers have been priced out,” said Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders. “If you don’t have access to the bank of mom and dad to get that down payment, it’s very challenging.”

Rising interest rates not only make it harder for first-time buyers to become homeowners. They also discourage people who already own homes from trading up. 

“If you’re a homeowner who’s got a 2% or 3% mortgage, you’re not in a hurry to put your home up for sale because that would require a higher mortgage rate,” Dietz said. “So resale inventory is about half of what it should be.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages | 71 Comments

Too much money, too few options, more records

Posted on August 16, 2023 by grim

From News 12:

Home prices on Long Island hit record high 

Home prices on Long Island are hitting record highs this summer.

In July, Nassau County’s median closing price was $725,000.

The price is $30,000 more than the month before, and the highest on record. 

Meanwhile, Suffolk’s median closing price was also up — tying a record high at $575,000.

The numbers are according to OneKey MLS, which tracks housing prices.  

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, NYC | 124 Comments

9.7% of North Jersey homes over a $1m

Posted on August 15, 2023 by grim

From Redfin:

Nearly 1 in 10 U.S. Homes Are Worth at Least $1 Million, Close to All-Time High

Just over 8% of U.S. homes are worth $1 million or more, near June 2022’s all-time high of 8.6%. 

This analysis estimated current home values using the Redfin Estimate, public records and MLS data, and past home values using public records and MLS data. The figures in this report represent June 2023, unless otherwise noted. See the end of this report for a detailed methodology.

The share of homes worth seven figures is on the upswing after dipping to a 12-month low of 7.3% in February. That’s because home prices are rising on a year-over-year basis after falling at the beginning of the year. The median U.S. home-sale price rose 3% in July, the biggest increase since last November. Prices are rising faster for high-end homes, with the median sale price of U.S. luxury homes up 4.6% year over year to $1.2 million in the second quarter. 

Today’s elevated mortgage rates are discouraging potential home sellers, with homeowners staying put to keep their relatively low mortgage rates. Inventory is so low that even though many buyers are sidelined by high rates, those who are in the market are competing for the few homes for sale. That’s driving home prices up and pushing many of those on the cusp above the million-dollar mark. 

“The supply shortage is making many listings feel hot,” said Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao. “In most of the country, expensive properties that are in good condition and priced fairly are attracting buyers and in some cases bidding wars, mostly because for-sale signs are few and far between right now.” 

“Still, there’s no rush to offload high-value homes,” Zhao continued. “Recent economic signals that the U.S. may avoid a broad recession could cause high-end buyers to feel more confident in making a major purchase in the coming months. There may be more demand coming down the pipeline.”

For homebuyers, the uptick in homes worth seven figures illustrates ongoing challenges with housing affordability in the U.S. And for buyers using loans, monthly payments on million-dollar homes are even more expensive than they were a year ago. A buyer purchasing a $1 million home would have a monthly mortgage payment of $6,604 with June’s average 6.7% mortgage rate, up from $5,984 with last June’s typical rate of around 5.5%. 

The share of homes worth seven figures has doubled since before the pandemic; just over 4% of homes were valued at $1 million or more in June 2019. The share has shot up because home prices skyrocketed in 2020 and 2021 as record-low mortgage rates and remote work drove Americans to buy homes. 
…
Parts of New England are gaining million-dollar homes fastest. Just over one-quarter (25.8%) of homes in the Bridgeport, CT metro–which is made up of many popular New York City suburbs–are worth at least $1 million, up from 23.1% a year ago, the biggest increase of the metros in this analysis. It’s followed by Boston, where the share increased from 20.3% to 21.5%, and Newark, NJ (8.7% to 9.7%). 

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 45 Comments

When will rates impact housing?

Posted on August 14, 2023 by grim

From HousingWire:

Where are mortgage rates headed?

ast week ended with a wild ride for mortgage rates. We anticipated the two inflation reports could help mortgage rates, however, we had a bad bond auction last Thursday, and the 10-year yield rose sharply. Weekly active inventory grew slowly again and purchase apps were down week to week again.

  • Weekly active listings rose by only 4,270
  • Mortgage rates went from 7.03% to 7.19%
  • Purchase apps were down 3% week to week

Last week we started with lower bond yields as we anticipated inflation reports to continue the trend of slower year-over-year inflation data. This happened as expected, except we had a lousy bond auction, which meant too much debt supply came online with insufficient buyers. This pushed yields higher Thursday and Friday to move mortgage rates to 7.19%.

A valid case for higher mortgage rates in the short term is that we are simply going to be in an environment where we don’t have a lot of bond buyers versus the supply coming in, thus making it harder for mortgage rates to go lower. We saw an example of that last week. 

For my 2023 forecast, my range on the 10-year yield has been between 3.21%-4.25%, emphasizing that the bond yields can go lower than 3.21% only if the labor market breaks. The labor market breaking to me is if jobless claims on a four-week moving average go over 323,000; currently, that data is 231,000. As the economy has stayed firm, bond yields are at a higher level of my range for 2023.
…
The painful housing inventory story of 2023 continues as we had yet another week of slow inventory growth. Last year when mortgage rates spiked higher, inventory growth was much faster, but we were also working from the lowest levels recorded in history in March of 2022. This year, it’s been a much different story. 

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 61 Comments

Peak Shore?

Posted on August 13, 2023 by grim

From the Philly Inquirer:

Did Shore house owners push their luck with high rents? Prices are dropping and weeks are open.

Last summer, her Shore house in Avalon fully booked, Katie Leighton took the family on a vacation to Europe. But this summer, a gaping hole emerged in prime season as some of her regular renters decided to take their families to Europe.

So she and her family spent a lovely week at the Jersey Shore.

“My kids have never spent a week at the beach at high season because it was always rented,” said Leighton, of Wilmington. “They were doing cartwheels.”

After three summers of a pandemic-bloated crush of demand that filled up Shore homes, created new investors, and pumped up rental and sale rates, things this summer are quite different. Unheard of in past summers, weeks are going unrented, and rental prices are dropping.

Maryellen Sheehan, who owns five Shore houses in Ocean City and manages others, says the market has definitely softened this summer.

One owner of a home she helps manage dropped a prime week’s price of a five-bedroom place with ocean views from $10,000 to $5,000 in order to get it booked.
…
It’s a big deflation from the last three summers, when it seemed nobody went anywhere else but the Shore.

But as owners raised their rates, people began to balk.
…
Overall, she said, there were 5,174 available listings at the Jersey Shore in June, down to 4,988 in July. This still represented a 13% increase in availability from a year earlier, possibly reflecting an increase in investors new to the market. Demand did not keep pace, she said.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Shore Real Estate, Unrest | 23 Comments

You’ll need to find another way to launder money

Posted on August 11, 2023 by grim

From Reuters:

US set to unveil long-awaited crackdown on real estate money laundering

The U.S. Treasury Department will soon propose a rule that would effectively end anonymous luxury-home purchases, closing a loophole that the agency says allows corrupt oligarchs, terrorists and other criminals to hide ill-gotten gains.

The long-awaited rule is expected to require that real estate professionals such as title insurers report the identities of the beneficial owners of companies buying real estate in cash to the Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN).

FinCEN is slated to propose the rule sometime this month, according to its regulatory agenda, though the timeline could slip, said two people briefed on the developments. Anti-corruption advocates and lawmakers have been pushing for the rule, which will replace the current patchwork reporting system.

Criminals have for decades anonymously hidden ill-gotten gains in real estate, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in March, adding that as much as $2.3 billion was laundered through U.S. real estate between 2015 and 2020.

“That’s why FinCEN is taking this important step to put something officially on the books that would root out money laundering through the sector once and for all,” said Erica Hanichak, government affairs director of advocacy group the FACT Coalition.

Some advocates say FinCEN, which declined to comment on the timing of the proposal, has moved too slowly. Officials first said in 2021 that they planned to implement the rule.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, Politics | 74 Comments

Another day, another record

Posted on August 10, 2023 by grim

From CNBC:

The average Manhattan rent just hit a new record of $5,588 a month

Rents in Manhattan hit a new high in July, as higher interest rates and low supply continued to drive up prices.

The average monthly rent in July was $5,588, up 9% over last year and marking a new record. Median rent, at $4,400 per month, also hit a new record, along with price per square foot of $84.74, according to a report from Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman. It was the fourth time in five months that Manhattan rents hit a record.

Despite a loss in population during the pandemic, average rents in Manhattan are now up 30% compared to 2019. Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, the appraisal and research firm, said August rents could mark a new record because it is typically the peak rental month as families look to move before the start of the school year.

“We could see another month of records,” Miller said.

Manhattan’s soaring rents have continued to defy predictions of analysts and economists. The borough’s population dropped by 400,000 between June 2020 and June 2022, according to U.S. Census data. While experts say the population has increased since last year, they say it is still likely below 2019.

What’s more, offices in Manhattan remain less than half occupied due to remote work. According to Kastle Systems, New York offices were only 48% occupied at the end of July.

Yet despite the population loss and rise of remote work, Manhattan rents continue to soar. Brokers say the lack of apartments for sale, due to higher interest rates, have forced many would-be buyers to rent. Younger workers also have flocked to the borough since the pandemic.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, NYC | 40 Comments

Tipping Point

Posted on August 9, 2023 by grim

From MSN:

The shrinking American home: As demand rises, builders go smaller

“It’s pretty consistent nationally,” said Mikaela Arroyo, director of the New Home Trends Institute at John Burns Real Estate Consulting. 

In an April report, JBREC surveyed 290 residential architects, designers and design-oriented builders and learned exactly how much homes are shrinking: A third of detached homes now being planned and built are expected to be under 2,000 square feet, and 70% will be under 2,500 square feet, the company found.  Townhomes are expected to be between 1,500 and 2,000 square feet. “While overall home sizes will shrink, townhomes may grow as would-be detached homes become attached to increase density,” the report said. 

And although “a lot of the market has historically been really resistant to density,” Arroyo said, even markets where lots and homes are typically bigger are seeing it increase. “Areas like Texas, where density wasn’t very common, we’re now seeing it increasing just because that’s the only way to get prices to an affordable level.”

As newly built homes get smaller, builders are allocating more space for more heavily trafficked areas of the house.

Builders are saying goodbye, for instance, to the formal dining room and welcoming a bigger kitchen island with seating. They’re adding another small bedroom instead of a bigger walk-in closet for the primary bedroom and including more outdoor space by forgoing a loft or a bonus room upstairs.

“We’re seeing a lot of deletion of separate, defined spaces,” Arroyo said.

“Think about the dining room and the living room. In the past, you would have had the downstairs of the house, which includes the kitchen, dining and living rooms. Now it’s just one great room and one kitchen,” she said. “And the kitchen is actually getting larger than it used to be, because we’re taking away the dining room.” 

Builders are shrinking homes in part to reduce costs, according to the JBREC report. Designers said that they were redesigning projects to reduce the cost of building by 7% to 10%. 

Posted in Demographics, National Real Estate, New Development, Where's the Beef? | 37 Comments

How high can we go?

Posted on August 8, 2023 by grim

From Black Knight:

Home Prices Hit New Record Highs in 60% of Major Markets as Annual Growth Rate Rises, Boosting Homeowner Equity Levels

The Black Knight Home Price Index (HPI) hit an all-time high in June, this time on both seasonally adjusted (SA) and unadjusted levels, with nearly every major market experiencing month-over-month growth

Prices have now reached new peaks in 30 of the 50 largest markets, with several northeastern metros currently 5-8% above 2022 highs

Home prices rose by +.67% (SA) month-over-month in June, while after slowing for 14 consecutive months, the annual growth rate rose to +0.8% in June, up from a revised +0.2% in May

Broadly speaking, annual growth is strongest among Midwest and Northeast markets, while West Coast and pandemic boom markets continue to see prices run below last year’s levels

Despite overall outstanding mortgage debt surpassing $13T for the first time ever, home price growth has also pushed homeowner equity levels back to within 3% of 2022 peaks

Total mortgage holder equity topped $16T again in June, with tappable equity – the amount that can be accessed while retaining a 20% equity stake – climbing to $10.5T, within $434B (4%) of 2022 peaks

While the number of underwater homeowners is up nearly 70% from last year, it remains 52% below 2019 levels, with just 344K (0.65%) of mortgage holders nationwide currently owing more than their home is worth

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 32 Comments

Where NJ goes

Posted on August 7, 2023 by grim

From NJ 92.7:

Leaving New Jersey: Where People Choose to Live Next

#10. Delaware

  • Moved from New Jersey to Delaware: 6,955 (3.0% of residents that moved)
  • Moved from Delaware to New Jersey: 1,066
  • New Jersey is the #9 most common destination for people moving from Delaware.

#9. Maryland

  • Moved from New Jersey to Maryland: 8,021 (3.5% of residents that moved)
  • Moved from Maryland to New Jersey: 3,772
  • New Jersey is the #12 most common destination from Maryland.

#8. Georgia

  • Moved from New Jersey to Georgia: 8,455 (3.7% of residents that moved)
  • Moved from Georgia to New Jersey: 1,915
  • New Jersey is the  #25 most common destination from Georgia.

#7. Virginia

  • Moved from New Jersey to Virginia: 9,511 (4.1% of residents that moved)
  • Moved from Virginia to New Jersey: 4,810
  • New Jersey is the  #17 most common destination from Virginia.

#6. Texas

  • Moved from New Jersey to Texas: 10,319 (4.5% of residents that moved)
  • Moved from Texas to New Jersey: 4,489
  • New Jersey is the #31 most common destination from Texas.

#5. California

  • Moved from New Jersey to California: 10,812 (4.7% of residents that moved)
  • Moved from California to New Jersey: 9,155
  • New Jersey is the #21 most common destination from California.

#4. North Carolina

  • Moved from New Jersey to North Carolina: 15,297 (6.7% of residents that moved)
  • Moved from North Carolina to New Jersey: 4,294
  • New Jersey is the #16 most common destination from North Carolina.

#3. Florida

  • Moved from New Jersey to Florida: 28,222 (12.3% of residents that moved)
  • Moved from Florida to New Jersey: 12,032
  • New Jersey is the #14 most common destination from Florida.

#2. New York

  • Moved from New Jersey to New York: 31,942 (13.9% of residents that moved)
  • Moved from New York to New Jersey: 58,664
  • New Jersey is the #1 most common destination from New York.

#1. Pennsylvania

  • Moved from New Jersey to Pennsylvania: 43,295 (18.9% of residents that moved)
  • Moved from Pennsylvania to New Jersey: 22,445
  • New Jersey is the #3 most common destination from Pennsylvania.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 82 Comments

Jobs Day!

Posted on August 4, 2023 by grim

From Morningstar:

July Jobs Report Forecast: Few Signs of a Slowing Economy

Forecasts for the July U.S. jobs report call for yet another month of healthy gains in the labor market, with no signs of a recession. Still, if the report comes in on target, economists see little reason for the Federal Reserve to respond with yet another increase in interest rates from their already-high levels. While job growth is solid, it is down from peak levels, and as long as inflation continues its moderating trend, that should keep the Fed on the sidelines.

“The reality is that the labor market is strong, and that’s a big part of the reason the economy has been so resilient,” says AllianceBernstein chief economist Eric Winograd.

After the June jobs report showed solid increases, economists expect another round of similar gains. Nonfarm payroll employment is expected to increase by 200,000, according to FactSet’s consensus estimates. This follows an increase of 209,000 in June, and it would be down substantially from the 339,000 increase seen in May.

“While the labor market has been strong, there is some evidence that it is gradually starting to decelerate,” Winograd says. “I don’t want to say ‘weakened’ because it isn’t weakening. It is getting strong at a slower pace.”

The monthly jobs report is also notoriously volatile, and consensus forecasts are often off by a wide margin. Winograd notes that going back to early 2022, economists have tended to underestimate the pace of job growth: “Forecasters have been too low in14 out of the last 15 months.”

Economists predict the unemployment rate will remain at 3.6%, in line with levels seen since early 2022. Kevin Nicholson, a chief investment officer at RiverFront Investment Group, points to the rate at which employers are filling in vacancies as a factor keeping the unemployment rate steady. “We’re replacing workers at the same level as we are adding more groups, in the sense that you have retirees that roll off payrolls and you have new workers that are added to the payrolls,” he says.

Posted in Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 116 Comments