New Jersey Real Estate Report

Of course NJ knows how to negotiate

Posted on April 18, 2025 by grim

From ESPN (I have no idea, but I’ll take it):

New Jersey Homebuyers Rank Among America’s Top Negotiators

New Home prices have been on the rise across the United States. In New Jersey, there has been a 12.5% increase in all types of properties on the market over the last 18 months.

A major reason for these price surges is because of limited inventory. There are not enough homes on the market to meet the demands of the market.

Also, many homeowners are holding onto low mortgage rates they locked in years ago, so fewer people are selling because they do not want to get caught in the inflation surge.

But despite these housing market price increases, there is some good news for New Jersey home buyers according to new research from Agent Advice.

The research team at AgentAdvice.com surveyed 3,000 homeowners in all 50 states in America to find out their negotiations for new homes. They found that 54 percent of homebuyers admitted to walking away from making a deal when the seller refused to negotiate a lower price.

New Jersey Home Buyers Saved the fourth most average money thanks to negotiations before making a deal for their new property. NJ buyers saved an average of $19,634 thanks to negotiations before signing the dotted line.

The average home price listing in New Jersey is $503,432 so negotiating a savings of almost $20,000 off the sale price is significant.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 129 Comments

Monmouth foreclosures up (but the number is tiny)

Posted on April 17, 2025 by grim

From NJ1015:

This county had the sharpest increase in foreclosures in NJ

If you’ve been following the housing market in New Jersey, you already know it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster. Between rising interest rates, high home prices, and economic uncertainty, it’s been tough out there for both buyers and homeowners.

But it’s been a long time since we’ve heard about rising foreclosures. It’s almost as though foreclosures disappeared when interest rates were low. After all, those monthly payments with three or four percent interest were very affordable!

But foreclosures are back, and one county, in particular, is really feeling the pinch right now. And the latest numbers prove it.

According to a new report from PropertyShark, Monmouth County just saw the sharpest increase in foreclosures in the entire state. Foreclosures in Monmouth more than doubled compared to this time last year (a 105% year-over-year spike), making it the most active foreclosure spot in New Jersey so far this year.

Now, not all the news is bad. Sussex County had the biggest drop in foreclosures (down 56%), and counties like Morris and Middlesex also saw a pretty big decline. Hudson and Hunterdon counties didn’t budge much at all and stayed flat.

Posted in Economics, Foreclosures, New Jersey Real Estate, Risky Lending, Shore Real Estate | 49 Comments

NJ economy softening?

Posted on April 15, 2025 by grim

From nj.com:

Layoffs in N.J. double. More than 3,600 jobs are gone this year.

New Jersey saw twice as many layoffs in the first quarter of 2025 than it did last year, even before tariff fears, according to federal labor statistics.

There were 28 businesses in the state that announced layoffs of a combined 3,618 workers in the first quarter of this year. The layoffs were more than double the 1,753 layoffs announced by 118 companies during the same period in 2024, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The surge in layoffs comes amidst concerns over the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on the nation’s product imports and the governor’s race in New Jersey.
…
According to federal data, the level of people quitting has leveled off after it peaked during the so-called Great Resignation, when many quit work and found better employment opportunities immediately after the pandemic.

The level of job openings has also softened, federal data shows, after a spring 2022 peak.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 135 Comments

At least we still have the house

Posted on April 12, 2025 by grim

From the WSJ:

Americans Have $35 Trillion in Housing Wealth—and It’s Costing Them

The extra half a million dollars seemed to come so easily—on paper, at least.

In 2021, Nikole Flores and Rocco Savage bought an 1,800-square-foot home in Miami Shores, Fla., for $875,000. The real-estate market rose, they added a pool and pergola, and today the house is worth an estimated $1.35 million.

After accounting for mortgage payments, their home equity—the portion of their home they own outright—grew by about $525,000. But there was another surprise: Their property taxes have increased by more than 50% since the purchase after multiple reassessments, to nearly $21,000 annually.

They know this is a fortunate problem to have, especially since they can still pay their bills. But the higher property taxes have pushed them to trim discretionary spending.

“If property taxes continue to rise, I feel like even if I pay off my house I’m essentially still paying rent,” said Savage.

Americans have hit an odd contradiction: They have amassed $35 trillion of wealth in their homes, yet many feel less well off because of it.

Home equity has climbed nearly 80% since early 2020—up from $19.5 trillion—thanks to a turbocharged rise in house prices. That was about twice the rise in financial wealth including stocks and bonds as of the end of 2024, according to the Federal Reserve.
…

Home equity is calculated by taking the estimated value of a home and subtracting the mortgage debt attached to it. The value isn’t locked in until a sale. But rough estimates are widely available thanks to modeling tools like Zillow’s Zestimate. Checking it has become an everyday obsession of many homeowners.

The average homeowner with a mortgage had $313,000 of equity entering 2025, according to ICE Mortgage Technology.

Posted in Crisis, Employment, Housing Bubble, Mortgages | 154 Comments

As goes stocks?

Posted on April 11, 2025 by grim

From NorthJersey.com:

Do stock market’s ups and downs impact NJ’s real estate prices? We asked the experts

The stock market experienced a historic rally on Wednesday following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on most tariffs. The rally followed days of dips and volatility.

The ups and downs have those looking to buy or sell a home asking if the stock market will affect the real estate market.

The short and simple answer is yes. But how?

The stock market is essentially a prediction of future corporate earnings, meaning that it is typically an indicator of current economic conditions. Because of this, the real estate market can be impacted based on the confidence, or lack thereof, that the stock market gives consumers.

“The stock market is not the economy, and the economy is not the stock market,” said Bankrate’s Chief Financial Analyst Greg McBride. “With that being said, even people that aren’t invested in the stock market tend to look at it as a barometer of how things are going, and if the market falls suddenly, it tends to dent consumer confidence.”

McBride said that a strong stock market creates a “wealth effect.” This means that when stock prices are rising, consumers tend to spend more money because they feel more optimistic about the state of the economy.
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“If the stock market is falling because the economy is weakening and interest rates end up also falling, there might actually be more real estate activity, mostly from the investors’ perspective because it’s cheaper to finance a property. But the driving force there is the backdrop of falling interest rates,” he said. “Or if the stock market is going up and it’s also an environment where interest rates are really high, that could crimp homebuying activity because the cost of financing is very high. So again, the broader backdrop is the main driving force, but the stock market can certainty contribute to outcomes depending on other variables as well.”
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“Build up your savings and pay down debt. Job security also has a lot to do with it, too. That’s why when the economy is weak, you tend to see a drop in home sales. Nobody wants to take that risk and take on a big obligation if they’re not feeling secure in their job. So I think those are the really important variables,” he said. “If your job security is no different now than it was a month or two ago and if you continue to save money and pay down debt, then a 20% drop in the stock market doesn’t impact your decision.”

Posted in Crisis, Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 86 Comments

Here comes the inventory?

Posted on April 9, 2025 by grim

From the Bergen Record:

Despite still dealing with low inventory, NJ saw a spike in active home listings in March

As we get further into spring, real estate activity across the Garden State continues to grow. And while our region continues to battle a lack of housing inventory and rapidly growing home prices, New Jersey still experienced a decent spike in active home listings and a minor increase in home prices in March.

The state had a total of 13,143 active home listings in March, including 9,000 new listings. This was a 14.57% increase from last year and a 10.9% increase from February 2024, according to Realtor.com’s monthly market data. New Jersey also had a median listing price of $550,000, which was 0.18% higher than last year and 0.93% higher than February 2025.

When it comes to the number of days active listings stayed on the market, listings in the Garden State typically stayed up for about 33 days. This was 8.33% less time than the same period last year and 25% less time than February 2025, Realtor.com said.
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Thirteen of New Jersey’s 21 counties had an increase in new listings compared with March 2024, and four counties saw no change. But when compared with February 2025, all of New Jersey’s 21 counties had a more than 10% increase in new listings.

With 464 new listings, Morris was the only county in North Jersey that had a slight decrease in new listings (-0.85%) compared with this time last year. Similarly, Bergen County had 756 new listings, which was about the same as what the county had in March 2024. All of the remaining North Jersey counties saw increases.

Passaic: 284 new listings (12.7%).
Essex: 556 new listings (21.93%).
Sussex: 220 new listings (1.85%).
Hudson: 524 new listings (39.36%).

When compared with February, all six North Jersey counties saw increases in new listings as our region’s real estate market continues to pick up this spring.

Bergen: 27.7%.
Passaic: 40.59%.
Morris: 54.67%.
Essex: 34.95%.
Sussex: 52.78%.
Hudson: 39.36%.

Posted in Demographics, New Jersey Real Estate | 191 Comments

Deal time?

Posted on April 7, 2025 by grim

From Yahoo Finance:

Builders sitting on a pile of unsold homes are slashing prices and offering mortgage rate deals

Homebuilders are sitting on the most unsold homes since the depths of the Great Recession, giving buyers a chance to snag deals — provided they’re in the right part of the country.

As of February, builders had completed some 119,000 homes that weren’t yet sold. To lure buyers, they’re dangling incentives like mortgage rate buydowns, closing cost credits, and money toward upgrades. In some cases, they’re slashing prices altogether, something they usually try to avoid because it hurts earlier buyers.

Most large builders aim to sell homes before they finish the construction. But they also typically build at least some properties “on spec,” without a buyer lined up. Spec properties, often called “move-in ready” or “inventory homes” by the industry, appeal to buyers who can’t wait months before they move and can help builders manage their costs during uncertain times.

Inventory has been steadily growing since early 2022, after builders that rushed to meet pandemic-driven demand ran up against higher mortgage rates and worsening affordability that shut out potential buyers. While that means the market has turned in buyers’ favor now, it may not last. Many builders are now slowing down construction activity while they clear their backlog.

“We fell pretty far in terms of prices,” said Scott Turner, the owner of Riverside Homes, a spec builder in Austin, Texas. He estimates that home prices in the urban parts of the city where he focuses dropped 30% from their peak to their trough. “That’s left builders with inventory that’s very difficult to sell. What that does, obviously, is have a chilling effect on new starts.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Development | 188 Comments

What’s going to happen to the spring market?

Posted on April 5, 2025 by grim

From NPR:

More homes are finally hitting the spring market. Will buyers take the plunge?

It’s springtime, and “For Sale” signs are popping up in front of homes across the country.

But with so much uncertainty in the economy, it’s an open question whether the spring housing market will be hot … or not. Let’s check out the forecast.

It’s certainly not the cheapest time to buy a home. The average 30-year mortgage rate is now 6.65%, down a bit from January, but still pretty high.

Many analysts predict that mortgage rates will linger around this level for now, especially since the Federal Reserve has indicated it’s unlikely to cut interest rates until later this year.

Selma Hepp, chief economist at real estate analysis firm Cotality, says market volatility could bring down mortgage rates. That’s because mortgages typically follow the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds, which are affected by investors’ worries about the economy.

“Because of the concerns around a slowing job market, because of concerns maybe about rising risks of a recession,” Hepp says.

But there are other factors keeping mortgage rates high – among them, inflationary policies like tariffs.

Another deterrent for buyers is the elevated cost to buy a home. The median home price has shot up 47% in just the last five years.

Last year was the slowest existing home sales market since 1995. It’s wasn’t that people didn’t want to buy — there simply wasn’t much for sale.

The big question now is whether a frozen market can begin to thaw. Signs suggest things are starting to shift, with more inventory coming on the market.

In February, there were 17% more existing homes for sale compared to last year, followed by a 10% increase in new listings in March compared to a year ago.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Mortgages, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 91 Comments

You need to make more money

Posted on April 4, 2025 by grim

From NorthJersey.com:

Six-figure salary needed to buy a home in 30 states. This is how much you’ll need in NJ

Earning more than $100,000 a year is something many of us can only dream of. What if we told you that salary is the annual income needed to buy a home in more than half the United States?

At the start of 2025, an annual household income of $116,986 is required to be able to afford the nation’s median-priced home of $418,489. This is a nearly 50% increase from the income that was needed in 2020, according to Bankrate’s 2025 Housing Affordability Study.

With this, homebuyers in 30 states and the District of Columbia need to make a six-figure annual household salary to afford the typical home in their area. In 2020, only six states and the District of Columbia required a six-figure annual income.

“Between elevated mortgage rates and the rise of home prices nationally to a record level, many aspiring homebuyers feel like owning a home is out of reach,” Bankrate senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick said in the report. “We can’t say when these conditions will ease, but we should note that home prices and availability widely vary around the nation and even throughout larger communities or metro areas. Some combination of patience and flexibility is called for.”

New Jersey has the eighth-highest annual income required for residents to afford the state’s median-priced home. To become a homeowner in the Garden State, a median household income of $160,001 annually is needed to afford the state’s median-priced home of $539,100. This is a 54.15% increase from the annual income needed in 2020, which was $103,794.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 193 Comments

That new build or renovation just got more expensive

Posted on April 3, 2025 by grim

From Politico:

Where Trump’s tariffs will really hit home

When President Donald Trump unveils his broad slate of new tariffs Wednesday, one industry that typically gets a sympathetic ear from the former real estate magnate is likely to feel especially vulnerable — homebuilding.

Tariffs on imported goods will slam the housing sector – which represents about 16 percent of GDP – just as it’s starting to show signs of life after years of stymied sales due to soaring home prices and high mortgage rates. But the market’s comeback is fragile, and the typically busy spring selling season has been a disappointment so far. The last thing it needs is a price hike on the materials used in new home construction and remodeling.

“Our conversation with the White House has been consistent from Day One – that tariffs will increase the cost of housing because of the building materials we import from Canada, Mexico and China,” said Jim Tobin, president and CEO of the National Association of Home Builders.

Trump was elected in part because of Americans’ frustration with inflation. And housing costs are the biggest single factor in inflation, making up fully one-third of the Consumer Price Index. Trump released an executive order on the first day of his presidency to tackle the rising cost of living, singling out housing as a big target. Now, Tobin said, the president is undercutting his own plans.

“Canada, Mexico and China are our biggest building material trading partners,” he said. “He has pledged to build more housing, and we believe the tariffs work against that goal.”

The rumored 25 percent tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian goods would hit the construction industry particularly hard. Of the 30 percent of lumber that is imported, 70 percent comes from Canada. It’s already tariffed at 14.5 percent, and lumber prices in March were nearly 16 percent higher than they were a year earlier.

Mexico, meanwhile, is the main source of a material used in drywall, with 74 percent of the imported gypsum and lime in 2024 originating there. And ceiling fixtures and electronics often come from China.

“There isn’t a room in a newly constructed home that will not be affected by these tariffs,” Tobin said, noting that manufacturers have already increased their costs in anticipation.

The additional levies could drive up the cost of a new home by about $9,200, according to builders NAHB surveyed. A private survey conducted by Zelman & Associates in February found that builders expected home prices to increase by between 4 and 6 percent – a jump that works out to between $16,700 and $25,000 for a $419,000 home (the median home price in the fourth quarter of 2024).

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, New Development | 222 Comments

Not dead yet

Posted on April 2, 2025 by grim

From the Real Deal:

Manhattan office leasing is back, baby

After finishing last year on a high note, the Manhattan office market came out the gate even hotter in 2025.

Office leasing volume reached 12.2 million square feet in the first quarter, the most since the fourth quarter of 2019, when the borough logged 12.7 million square feet, according to a new report from Savills. The leasing boom comes as work-in-office rates reach 76 percent of pre-pandemic levels, with one in four employers planning to further increase office attendance, according to The Partnership for New York City.

“Manhattan, in general, is in a class of its own right now as far as major U.S. office markets,” said Savills’ Matthew Schreck, a co-author of the report. “We’ve had three to four straight quarters of continually accelerating demand. The reason is due in part to the tenant mix that exists in this market… and their attitude towards work on-site.”

The market was boosted by a wave of large leases, including 16 deals for 100,000 square feet or more.

The largest lease of the quarter, according to Savills, was Jane Street Capital’s 400,000-square-foot expansion at Brookfield’s 250 Vesey Street, which increased the firm’s footprint to nearly 1 million square feet. Eight of the ten largest leases were renewals, some including expansion components.

The second-largest lease was Horizon Media Group’s 367,000-square-foot renewal at Hudson Square Properties’ 75 Varick Street. Universal Music Group’s 334,000-square-foot lease to relocate to Vornado’s Penn 2 office tower, came in third.

Availability continued to tighten, especially in Class A buildings. The overall availability rate was 17.7 percent, down from 20 percent a year ago. Availability at the highest-end buildings, classified as trophy and Class A+, dipped below 12 percent across Manhattan and fell to 7.5 percent in Midtown.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Development, NYC | 113 Comments

NJ Property Taxes – Uncapped Liability

Posted on April 1, 2025 by grim

From the Star Ledger:

Struggling N.J. school district wants to raise taxes 36% in ‘shocking’ move

Local officials are facing off in Plainfield after the city’s board of education proposed raising local school property taxes by 36% — the district’s first tax increase in six years — to help close a budget gap.

Plainfield Mayor Adrian Mapp publicly criticized the move, saying it would further burden residents who are already facing financial struggles in the Union County city.

“This decision, which will place an even greater financial strain on homeowners, is a shocking abdication of the BOE’s duty to be responsible stewards of public funds,” the mayor said in a statement.

Plainfield’s median household income was $70,712 in 2022, according to Census figures. That is among the lowest in the county.

During the city’s March 18 board of education meeting, officials said the school tax increase was necessary to offset the dwindling state aid the district has relied on in recent years.

In a 7-1 vote, the Plainfield Board of Education approved a preliminary $338 million school district budget and introduced a measure to raise the local tax levy from 2.14% to 2.92% for the next school year.

The increased tax levy would mean school taxes would increase by about 36% — amounting to an $853 annual increase in taxes for the average homeowner, according to the board.

“I know that is not an easy pill to swallow, nor is it easy as a taxpayer here in the city of Plainfield, as a homeowner, to deliver,” Cameron Cox, Plainfield Board of Education business administrator, said while presenting the budget.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 139 Comments

NY Metro Leads US

Posted on March 31, 2025 by grim

From the NY Post:

Northeast city sees biggest gain as home sales prices rise again

Home sales prices continued to increase through the first month of the new year, with one major metro market in the Northeast boasting the biggest annual gain.

The latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index data released Tuesday showed that the nationwide price went up 4.1% in January from a year ago, exceeding the 3.9% gain from December 2024.

Home prices in the 20 major U.S. metros tracked by the index were up 4.7% in the 12 months ending in January, up from a 4.5% increase in the previous month. The 10-city index also increased, going up 5.3%.

Taken together, all three Case-Shiller indices showed accelerating home price growth compared to the previous month.

New York City again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.7% surge in January, followed by Chicago and Boston, with upswings of 7.5% and 6.6%, respectively.

Meanwhile, Tampa, FL, showed the lowest return, dipping 1.5%, making it the only market to post an annual decline.

“As the country as a whole faces tight inventory levels, regional variation in the housing market means that the impact varies geographically,” says Realtor.com® Senior Economic Research Analyst Hannah Jones. “Relatively strong construction activity in the South and West have helped take some pressure off of home prices. However, the Northeast and Midwest continue to see demand significantly outstrip supply, which has led to more considerable price growth in the regions.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 97 Comments

Everyone wants to be here

Posted on March 29, 2025 by grim

From the WSJ:

This 4-Bedroom Ranch in N.J. Tells You Everything About the Lopsided Housing Market

Two houses went on the market for similar prices at about the same time earlier this year. One got 25 offers. The other got none.

There are many variables that determine demand, from the condition of the house to the price set by the seller. But one factor is having a major impact right now: geography.

The Northeast and Midwest markets have far more prospective buyers than available homes. But parts of the Sunbelt are seeing a flood of houses for sale.

The divergence is playing out in places like Wyckoff, N.J., where a four-bedroom ranch was on the market for just over a week in early February. With dozens of offers, the winning buyers contracted to buy for about $200,000 above the roughly $1.1 million asking price.

But in Miami, a six-bedroom with a grand staircase and pool has sat on the market for nearly two months without a firm offer. The sellers cut the price by $9,000 to $990,000.

“There are very different realities for sellers depending on location,” said Cara Lavender, research manager at John Burns Research and Consulting.

For the past few years, nearly every market was hot and there were few deals to be found. Now, many of the markets that rose the fastest are the ones cooling the most. If that weakness spreads more broadly across the housing market, it could drag on a U.S. economy that has lately been slowing.
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Liz Ruckdeschel, an agent at Coldwell Banker Realty, figured 539 Covington Place in Wyckoff, N.J., would be a hot property.

Bidding wars in the Northern New Jersey suburb of New York, known for its good schools, are still common, she said. Ranch-style homes like the one she is selling are popular with young families and retirees looking to downsize to a single story.

Selling points included the kitchen island featuring a chunky marble countertop, the decor’s neutral tones and a custom garden. However, the roof is aging and the front steps could use repair.

Seller Kate Fishbein knew she would find a buyer but was surprised by the high level of demand.

“It was overwhelming,” said Fishbein, who expected to get about 10 offers. She and her husband, Jordan Fishbein, bought the home for about $630,000 around 13 years ago. They remodeled and updated the house over the years.

They are under contract for a larger home in the same neighborhood where their bid was chosen over multiple offers.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 66 Comments

Real estate broker challenges real estate requirement

Posted on March 28, 2025 by grim

Too good not to share. At this point, why do we even need Brokers? From the Record:

North Jersey broker challenges ‘outdated’ real estate brick-and-mortar office requirements

Signing paper contracts and filling file cabinets with physical records are likely things of the past for most people. And one North Jersey-based broker says the requirement for brick-and-mortar real estate offices should be, too.

Derek Eisenberg is the founder of Continental Real Estate Group Inc., a national online brokerage based in Hackensack that offers a la carte real estate services. He is currently in the midst of legal battles against real estate commission officials in the states of Nevada and West Virginia, where he said the rules requiring brokerages to have physical office spaces is “outdated” and simply adds unnecessary costs for his expanding business.

“All of our records are electronic,” he said. “We don’t come into our office to write up a contract. Everything is done with DocuSign or Dotloop or ZipForms online. There’s no paperwork done in the office anymore, and basically we never go into these offices.”

“They come to us for the marketing aspect, which is the MLS,” he said, referring to the Multiple Listing Service. “Then they can subscribe to as little services as they want. They can get a basic listing with six photographs and just put them in the MLS, or they can get a very detailed level of service where we will negotiate and basically do everything that a local agent would do short of putting the key in the door.

Posted in National Real Estate | 39 Comments