Why does NJ think it’s even part of the conversation?

Posted on February 18, 2022 by grim

From NJBIZ:

NJ rolls out roadmap for 21st century ‘future of work’

State officials on Feb. 17 published a long-awaited slate of recommendations laying out how the New Jersey workforce of the 21st century needs to change in the decades to come.

The 179-page report, which was first ordered by the Murphy administration in 2019 before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, delves into “how technological advancements will shape the future of New Jersey’s economy and workforce.”

Future of work has been something that the tech industry has been tinkering with for years, especially following a global pandemic that gave enough people a taste of telecommuting arrangements, which has fostered resistance from many to the return to a 40-hour, in-office workweek.

“In a rapidly changing economy directly impacted by the development of new technology, inequality, and the challenges of the climate crisis, we have an important and urgent role to play in equipping our workers to be successful,” Gov. Phil Murphy said in the Thursday announcement.

“Creating opportunities for new industries, well-paid work, and paths for career growth will be essential to our economy and to easing the fear and anxiety caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had an enormous impact on the state labor market and work environment,” he continued in a message accompanying the report.

The recommendations range from state financing for continuing education and training programs for low-income workers, to education workers’ rights and employee misclassification laws; expanded access to low and no-cost higher education tuition assistance programs; and upgrades to the state’s pandemic-ravaged, beleaguered unemployment system.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 135 Comments

Electrify the USPS? Might be the dumbest option.

Posted on February 17, 2022 by grim

If we want to reduce the carbon footprint and resource consumption of the USPS, ban junk mail instead. It’s that simple. We could probably cut the USPS fossil fuel consumption in half, at NO cost to the taxpayer. Why bother with a discussion about modernizing a typewriter company? Junk mail represents 48% of all mail delivered today. This is the equivalent of us investing in the email infrastructure used to send spam email. This doesn’t even include the positive environmental impact of the reduced paper and trash. Junk mail goes right from my mailbox into my trash, it’s a complete misuse of resources. Fix the junk mail problem first.

From Newsday:

USPS Can’t Buy All-Electric Delivery Fleet Due to Money Woes, DeJoy Says

The U.S. Postal Service can’t yet follow through on its commitment to buying and using an all-electric delivery fleet because of its “dire financial condition,” Postmaster General and USPS Chief Executive Officer Louis DeJoy said in a statementSunday.

Instead, the service is initially ordering 5,000 electric vehicles, with “the flexibility to increase the number of electric vehicles introduced should additional funding become available.”

“Absent such funding, we must make fiscally responsible decisions that result in the needed introduction of safer and environmentally cleaner vehicles for the men and women who deliver America’s mail,” the statement read.

Posted in General | 141 Comments

Huh?

Posted on February 16, 2022 by grim

From the AP:

Biden has long-term inflation plan, but voter patience short

President Joe Biden came into office with a plan to fix inflation — just not the particular inflationary problem that the country now faces. 

His belief is that a cluster of companies control too many industries, which reduces competition for both customers and workers. That leads to higher prices and lower wages in what the White House says is an average cost of $5,000 annually for U.S. families. Biden is now trying to remedy the situation with 72 distinct initiatives — everything from new rules for cell phone repairs to regulations on meatpacking to more merger reviews.

“The dynamics of the modern American economy — the increased consolidation and lack of competition — has distorted market incentives in important ways,” said Brian Deese, director of the White House National Economic Council. “The president gave us the direction that he wanted us to come back and say what could we do to address this issue of consolidation across industries in a way that would be durable.”

But even administration officials acknowledge that the initiatives outlined by the president’s seven-month-old competition council aren’t designed to quickly stop the 7.5% inflation that’s frustrating Americans and damaging Biden’s popularity. Furthermore, business groups dispute the fundamental premise that competition has faded within the U.S. economy and they are prepared to challenge the administration’s new initiatives in court.

“It will strangle economic growth,” said Neil Bradley, executive vice president and chief policy officer of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “Ironically, what this will do is actually lead to more inflation.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate | 116 Comments

Up Up Up

Posted on February 15, 2022 by grim

From the APP:

NJ inflation: Energy, furniture, food soar, and retirees may need jobs to pay for it

As Valentine’s Day approached, Lou Smith, the owner of Blend on Main in Manasquan, last week found the wholesale price of a 2-pound lobster was $39, nearly twice as much as it was before the pandemic.

The price increases, he said, don’t stop with lobster. Chicken, beef and anything made with flour is surging, too.  

“Something had to give,” Smith said of the impact of rising prices on his restaurant. “So my sanity is first.”

Inflation has climbed at its highest rate in nearly 40 years, forcing New Jerseyans to dig deeper to pay for everything from cupcakes to automobiles. 

…

The Consumer Price Index rose 7.5% from January 2021 to January 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last week, the biggest annual gain since February 1982.

The CPI in New York City and Northern New Jersey, which includes Monmouth and Ocean counties, was tamer, rising 5.1% during the past 12 months, the agency said.

Still, the increases hit all sorts of items regionwide. Energy was up 28.5%; durable goods like furniture was up 17.2%; meat, poultry, fish and eggs were up 16%; and new vehicles were up 14.6%, according to BLS.

…

Business owners said they aren’t sure what to expect any given week. Food Circus, a Middletown-based company that owns five Super Foodtown supermarkets, recently was hit with higher prices for chicken cutlets, whole milk and mayonnaise, Lou Scaduto Jr., the company’s president, said.

And there are signs that the supply chain remains bottled up; the grocer ran into trouble getting deliveries of Gatorade and Capri Sun juice boxes, Scaduto said.

“Those costs have to be passed on; we can’t afford just to eat it,” Scaduto said last Wednesday. “I got another notice today just on Hellmann’s mayonnaise. It’s going up $10 a case for the 30-ounce jar. They are blaming it on oil. They can’t get the (cooking) oil to produce mayonnaise.”

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 90 Comments

Housing survived the pandemic too

Posted on February 14, 2022 by grim

From Mortgage News Daily:

MBA Says Delinquencies Fall Below Historic Levels

For the second time this week a major report on loan performance has confirmed that homeowners are recovering rapidly from the pandemic. The National Delinquency Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) put the nationwide rate of non-current mortgage payments at 4.65 percent of outstanding loans at the end of the fourth quarter of 2021. This is down 23 basis points (bps) from the third quarter and 208 bps lower than a year earlier. The figure includes delinquent loans that are in forbearance programs.

“Mortgage delinquencies descended in the final three months of 2021, reaching levels at or below MBA’s survey averages dating back to 1979,” said Marina Walsh, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The fourth-quarter delinquency rate of 4.65 percent was 67 basis points lower than MBA’s survey average of 5.32 percent. Furthermore, the seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 2.83 percent in the fourth quarter, close to the long-term average of 2.80 percent.”

Added Walsh, “The quarters right before the COVID-19 pandemic represented some of the lowest delinquencies ever recorded. Delinquencies are now approaching levels not seen since the first quarter of 2020, which is a testament to the strength of the U.S. labor market.”

Walsh credited economic forces, including the low rate of unemployment, growing labor force participation, wage growth and accumulated home equity for the low delinquency rates. Forbearance programs and subsequent loan workouts have also contributed to the current outcomes.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 117 Comments

Sorry about your savings

Posted on February 11, 2022 by grim

From CNN:

America’s annual price increase was worse than economists had forecast

A key measure of inflation climbed to a near-40-year high last month. Economists are hopeful that America will reach the peak of the pandemic-era price increases in the early months of 2022. Here’s to hoping.

The consumer price index rose 7.5% in the 12 months ending January, not adjusted for seasonal swings, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday. It was the steepest annual price increase since February 1982 and worse than economists had forecast.

Stripping out food and energy prices, which tend to be more volatile, prices increased by 6% between January 2021 and January 2022, marking the largest increase since August 1982. Food prices rose 7% over the same period, while energy prices rose 27%, led by fuel oil and gasoline prices.

In January alone, prices rose 0.6%, including seasonal adjustments, the same rate as in December and more than economists had predicted. That served up some bad news for people who hoped the monthly data would indicate a slowdown of the price hikes.

White House economic adviser Jared Bernstein acknowledged that the administration has “way more work to do” on inflation.

Posted in Economics | 251 Comments

Experts offer milquetoast predictions, nothing you didn’t already know.

Posted on February 10, 2022 by grim

This is all you’ve got? Talk about bold predictions. From MarketWatch:

‘Home price growth may return to normalcy.’ 5 economists and real estate pros predict what will happen in the housing market in 2022

Prediction 1: Mortgage rates will rise

“Mortgage rates snapped upward in January as mortgage investors realized what the Fed intends to do, which is raise interest rates aggressively this year,” says Holden Lewis, home and mortgage expert at NerdWallet. “Now, mortgage rates are rising more gradually as markets wait for the Fed to clarify their timetable.”

Prediction 2: Home price growth may ‘return to normalcy’

Heym says the market is suffering from record-low inventory levels, which has driven prices to new highs even as the number of sales has declined. “I don’t expect this to change in the next few months as home builders can’t build houses fast enough to help the supply issue,” says Heym. Specifically, Yun says home prices are solidly higher by double-digit percentages compared to one ago. “However, with mortgage rates moving up and some home buyers getting priced out, home price growth will return to normalcy, to around 5% for all of 2022,” says Yun.

Prediction 3: Expect near-term bidding wars

The clock is also ticking as 2021 interest rate locks with 60-90 day expirations are set to mature any day. But what does this mean for buyers? Essentially, they’re rushing and overbidding on properties in the hopes of securing a low interest rate before the next Fed increase. “This is causing bidding war frenzies,” says Pierre Debbas, managing partner of real estate law firm Romer Debbas LLP. 

Prediction 4: It will still be a tough market for buyers though

Buyers will continue to have limited options in most areas as inventory will remain scarce, pros say. “Prices will continue to rise, which combined with higher mortgage rates, will drive some buyers out of the market,” says Heym. That said, it will continue to be a strong seller’s market, which means if you’ve been thinking about listing your home — there’s no time like the present. 

Prediction 5: But there are still wildcards

The big wildcard is the permanency of work-from-home policies or even hybrid models of employment. “That will lead to changes in residential locational choices with more households willing to buy a home farther away from job locations and home price growth therefore will be stronger in small towns and exurbs compared to downtown locations,” says Yun.

Prediction 6: Spring will bring more activity

With the spring home shopping season right around the corner, expect activity to heat up. “It’s likely inventory and sales will pick up over the next few months,” says Bachaud.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 143 Comments

Who? Why?

Posted on February 8, 2022 by grim

From the LA Times:

Joe Pesci sells extremely 1980s New Jersey mansion for $5 million 

On the coast of New Jersey, an Art Deco-style mansion that screams Joe Pesci has been sold by the man himself for $5 million.

The Oscar-winning actor, who grew up in the Garden State, bought the property in 1994 for $850,000. He’d been shopping it around for the last three years for $6.5 million before finally finding a buyer. The sale closed on Wednesday.

A mish-mash of the over-the-top style of the 1980s and ’90s, the waterfront estate spans a third of an acre in Lavallette overlooking Barnegat Bay. Dramatically different than its neighbors, the mansion looks like a natural fit for one of Pesci’s gangster characters in films such as “Goodfellas,” “Casino” or “The Irishman.”

The cream-colored home flaunts a curvaceous exterior topped by a glass atrium. Inside, a sculptural staircase winds its way upstairs.

Other highlights include a rounded dining room under a gold lighting fixture, as well as a memorabilia-filled media room complete with a “Lethal Weapon” pinball machine. There’s also a gold-colored barbershop chair, a carousel horse, an elevator, an office, eight bedrooms and eight bathrooms — including a primary suite with a private balcony.

Posted in General | 115 Comments

Really Zillow?

Posted on February 7, 2022 by grim

From Fortune:

Zillow: Our 2022 housing forecast is way off—home prices now set to spike 16%

Homebuyers got crushed last year as home prices soared at their highest clip on record. Housing economists saw that price growth—which peaked at a year-over-year rate of 20% last year—as simply unsustainable. Their economic models agreed: Among the seven forecast models reviewed by Fortune heading into 2022, every single one predicted home price growth would slow significantly this year.

But over the past few weeks, that consensus is no longer so unified. Now, more industry insiders are throwing out their previous forecasts and replacing them with more bullish short-term outlooks. Indeed, some experts say the 2022 spring housing market might go down as one of the most competitive on record.

Look no further than Zillow. Back in December, the home listing site predicted that U.S. home values would climb 11% this year. Economists at Zillow now say that forecast is too conservative. Their latest forecast finds home prices are set to spike 16.4% between December 2021 and December 2022. If it comes to fruition, it would mark another brutal year for home shoppers. 

Why is Zillow raising its 2022 home price growth forecast? A lot of it boils down to housing inventory. During the pandemic, inventory has plunged to a four-decade low as more buyers rushed into the market. That trend was predicted to reverse late last year as forbearance protection programs lapsed and mortgage rates rose. But not only has that not happened, the inventory situation has gotten worse. In January, there were just over 923,000 U.S. homes listed for sale on Zillow. That’s down 40.5% from the pre-pandemic level in January 2020, and down 19.5% from January 2021.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 46 Comments

Lawwwnguyland

Posted on February 5, 2022 by grim

From Newsday:

Long Island home prices surged 60% since 2012

Long Island homebuyers today have to spend more, move faster and choose from a vastly smaller roster of listings than a decade ago, according to a new report from real estate brokerage Douglas Elliman and appraisal firm Miller Samuel.

The median sale price for a Long Island home rose 60% over the past decade to $560,000 last year compared with $350,000 in 2012, according to the data, which excludes the Hamptons and North Fork and wasn’t adjusted for inflation. 

In Nassau County, the median sale price rose 60% to $640,000 over the decade, and in Suffolk increased by about 62% to $490,000, excluding the Hamptons and North Fork. It took 54 days on average between the time a home went on the market and when a sale closed, which is down by more than half from the 128 days it took a decade ago.

The median price of a single-family home sold last year on Long Island, excluding the Hamptons and North Fork, was $580,000, or about two-thirds higher than a decade ago. The median price for condos, which make up about one-eighth of the Long Island home sales market, rose 52% to $365,000 in the past decade. There were 4,430 condo sales last year, which was nearly 73% more than back in 2012.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate, NYC | 81 Comments

So how will we spend it?

Posted on February 3, 2022 by grim

From the Record:

New Jersey in line for $641 million from opioids settlement, a lifeline for treatment

New Jersey is on track to receive more than $641 million as part of a nationwide opioid settlement agreement with Johnson & Johnson and the country’s three largest pharmaceutical distributors. 

Every one of New Jersey’s counties and municipalities that are eligible to join the $26 billion settlement have signed on, which is significant because it paves the way for the state to collect the maximum amount, acting Attorney General Andrew J. Bruck said Wednesday. 

The agreement with New Jersey-based Johnson & Johnson and three pharmaceutical distributors — McKesson, Cardinal Health and AmerisourceBergen — would resolve claims involving their roles in the country’s opioid crisis. 

New Jersey needed all 21 counties and all 241 municipalities that have populations over 10,000 to approve a settlement in order for the state to be eligible for the maximum amount of more than $641 million. 

Posted in Politics | 280 Comments

No return to “normal”

Posted on February 2, 2022 by grim

From A Wealth of Common Sense:

Why It Could Be Years Until We See a Normal Housing Market

The people buying homes today have excellent credit scores. This wasn’t the case in the subprime boom of the early-to-mid aughts when the majority of buyers came from people with low credit scores.

Just imagine you’ve owned your home for 5 years or more. By now you’ve certainly refinanced at least 2-3 times and likely have a borrowing rate of 3% or less. You’re also sitting on some nice equity through a combination of principal payments and rising prices.

It sure doesn’t seem like housing prices are going to stop rising any time soon and rents are also on the rise so it makes sense people are choosing to hold onto their original property even after buying something new.

They can simply charge enough rent to cover the mortgage, insurance and taxes and still come out ahead by slowly paying down a cheap mortgage and seeing their house go up in value.

If I had to guess it’s going to be years until we see anything approaching a “normal” housing market. We simply didn’t build enough homes following the last housing crash to meet the demand coming from millennials reaching their household formation years.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 120 Comments

Welcome to post-covid

Posted on February 1, 2022 by grim

From NJ1015:

Many NJ residents believe it’s time to move on from COVID

Even as the omicron surge continues to drop, a new poll finds Garden State residents are still concerned about COVID but only to a certain point.

Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said the just-released survey finds almost two years after the pandemic began, “70% say it’s time we just accept it’s here to stay and get on with our lives.”

The survey finds 89% of Republicans feel this way along with 71% of independents, while 47% of Democrats agree it’s time to accept the virus and move on.

He said the poll finds “a majority of 52% support having some sort of facemask and social distancing guidelines, but that’s down from 63% back in September.”

Murray said when we look at approval for “vaccine mandates in workplaces, that number is now down to 43%, from 53% just a few months ago.”

“People are saying they’re not working so how can we mandate them,” he said.

About a third of respondents, 34%, believe the COVID outbreak will be brought under control by the end of the year, but 28% think a return to normalcy will never happen.

The survey also finds about a third of people who have been vaccinated report also being infected with COVID, and 61% of those who have not gotten a shot say they have been infected with the virus.

Posted in General | 122 Comments

We’ve got all the risk

Posted on January 31, 2022 by grim

From NJ1015:

More than 1 in 5 high-risk U.S. housing markets are NJ counties

A 2021 fourth-quarter report released by ATTOM Data Solutions shows that one-fifth of the nation’s counties most at risk for damage to their housing markets due to COVID-19’s ongoing economic impacts were New Jersey jurisdictions counted as part of either the New York or Philadelphia metro areas.

In addition to Bergen, Essex, Hunterdon, Middlesex, Ocean, Passaic, Sussex, Burlington, Camden, and Gloucester counties, Cumberland, Monmouth, and Union also cracked the Top 50.

That’s 13 counties total, out of those 50, right here in the Garden State.

According to Rick Sharga, executive vice president of ATTOM subsidiary RealtyTrac, the calculation of three distinct percentages can put a county at high risk: how much household income it takes to purchase a home, how many homes are underwater (meaning more is owed on the mortgage than the house is worth), and the volume of foreclosure filings.
…
“We’re also in a housing market that is booming across the country, and New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, no exceptions to that. The housing markets in those areas are still extraordinarily strong,” he said. “The markets that we’re looking at as being the highest-risk markets are also in states that really haven’t recovered as rapidly as some other states have from the COVID recession.”

It’s “no surprise,” then, that so much of New Jersey is high risk, as unemployment rates here have continued to trend higher than the national average.

“These are all markets that had sort of the tightest government regulations,” Sharga said. “The governments, both state and city governments, felt the need to be a little stricter in terms of battling COVID.”
…
Sharga cautions that should the coronavirus trend upward enough again to trigger economic shutdowns, housing markets could collapse in these areas.

“They tend to have a very high percentage of service industry jobs, which are the ones that have been most impacted by the pandemic in the past, and probably would be again if there’s another wave in the future,” he said.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, Politics | 127 Comments

Where now?

Posted on January 29, 2022 by grim

From Forbes:

Home price growth decelerates again—forecast models say the peak rate is behind us

Where do we go from here? Every leading real estate forecast modelreviewed by Fortune predicts this home price growth deceleration—which started in September—will continue in 2022. The most bullish outlook comes from Zillow, which predicts home prices will jump 11% this year. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac say home prices will jump 8.4% and 6%, respectively, in 2022. While that’s lower than the 18.8% we’ve seen over the most recent 12-month period, it’s still above the average rate of appreciation (4.6%) home prices have gone up annually since 1980. 

But not all forecasters are calling for strong appreciation levels this year. For the coming 12 months, Redfin says home prices will climb 3%. That’s pretty close to the forecast price growth rates by Realtor.com (2.9%) and CoreLogic (2.8%). Meanwhile, the Mortgage Bankers Association has the lowest 2022 price growth forecast—predicting median existing home prices will rise just 2.3% this year.

Even if the rate of price growth continues to decelerate, it doesn’t mean home shoppers will get any relief on the cost front. The underlying reason these forecast models predict price growth will slow in 2022 isn’t just because they’re predicting the housing market will cool down a bit. It can also be attributed to the expectation that mortgage rates will shoot up this year as the Federal Reserve works to tame inflation. As mortgage rates rise, so do monthly mortgage payments and the ability for homebuyers to bid up prices. Essentially, it’s a wash: The savings from reduced home price growth gets canceled out by the increased mortgage payments.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 128 Comments