Predictions 2022!

Posted on December 31, 2021 by grim

Break out your crystal ball and let’s hear ’em!

Real Estate

Stocks/Securities

Economy

Commodities

Inflation

Posted in General | 189 Comments

Whatcha waiting for PA?

Posted on December 29, 2021 by grim

From CBS Pittsburgh:

Pennsylvania Stands Still As Neighbors Hike Minimum Wage, But Some Lawmakers See Action In 2022

What do Ohio, West Virginia, Maryland, New York, New Jersey and Delaware all share in common besides a border with Pennsylvania? They each have higher minimum wages than Pennsylvania, and some are raising them in 2022 – but Pennsylvania is not.

“It’s 5,651 days since the Pennsylvania Legislature last gave a raise for the minimum wage. That’s a long time,” PA Sen. Christine Tartaglione, a Philadelphia Democrat, told KDKA political editor Jon Delano on Tuesday.

While Pennsylvania’s minimum wage is stuck at $7.25 an hour, neighboring states will be offering more on Jan. 1: $8.75 in West Virginia, $9.30 in Ohio, $10.50 in Delaware, $12.50 in Maryland, $13.00 in New Jersey and $13.20 in New York.

Tartaglione authored the last minimum wage in 2006 and has a bill to raise the wage for everyone, including all restaurant and tip workers.

“Now I have Senate Bill 12, which will bring the minimum wage to $12.00 with a pathway to $15.00. It’s not going to start right at $15.00,” said Tartaglione.

Posted in Economics, Employment, Philly | 121 Comments

“How high is too high?”

Posted on December 26, 2021 by grim

From CNBC:

Sales of newly built homes tank as affordability hits buyers

At some point the price is just too high. That may be increasingly the case for potential buyers of newly built single-family homes.

Sales of those homes in November came in well below analysts expectations, down 14% from a year ago. And October’s sales numbers were revised to the lowest level since the start of the pandemic, according to the U.S. Census Bureau count.  

Despite slowing sales and rising mortgage rates, the median price of newly built homes sold in November rose nearly 19% from November 2020. This came even as the supply of new homes rose. That rising inventory should push prices down, observers say. However, with inventory in existing homes historically low, prices in newly built homes are continuing to jump. The question for now is, how high is too high?

“A hefty correction appears to be due, but the rapid increases in existing home prices — inventory in that market is only one-third the level in the new home market, relative to sales — is putting extra upward pressure on new home prices,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics in a note to investors. 

Prices for existing homes sold in November were up just over 13% year over year, a slight increase from the annual gain in October, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate, New Development | 114 Comments

Not slowing down yet

Posted on December 23, 2021 by grim

From the WSJ:

Homes Sold in November at Fastest Pace in 10 Months

Existing-home sales, which rose in November to the highest seasonally adjusted annual rate since January, are on track for their strongest year since 2006 as low mortgage-interest rates and a robust job market drive up demand.

Sales of previously owned homes rose 1.9% in November, climbing for the third straight month, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday. 

The booming housing market comes against a backdrop of an economy that is growing but facing pressure from high inflation and worries about the Omicron variant of the coronavirus. The new fast-spreading variant could crimp consumer spending during the holiday shopping season, particularly outlays on in-person services like travel, entertainment and dining out. 

…

Meanwhile, the supply of homes for sale dropped to a record low at the beginning of the year and has stayed well below normal all year, according to NAR. Home prices have soaredas buyers have competed for a limited number of homes. The median existing-home price rose 13.9% in November from a year earlier, NAR said, to $353,900.

The holiday season and cold weather in some parts of the country typically curtail home sales near the end of the year. But activity hasn’t slowed much in recent weeks. Buyers might have been in a rush to purchase before home prices rose further or interest rates ticked upward, said Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae.

Posted in Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 137 Comments

Where is everyone?

Posted on December 22, 2021 by grim

From Politico:

U.S. population growth in 2021 slowest since nation’s founding

The U.S. population grew just 0.1 percent in 2021, the slowest rate since the nation was founded in the 18th century, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

The Census Bureau attributed the slow population growth to the Covid-19 pandemic, though the country has been experiencing low birth rates for several years. Low population growth in recent years has historically been attributed to simultaneously rising death rates of an aging U.S. population and falling declining rates in both births and migration.

Studies showed that net migration from Puerto Rico and foreign countries declined during the Covid-19 pandemic.

According to the Census Bureau, 2021 is the first year since 1937 that the population has grown by fewer than one million people and is also the year with the lowest number of people added to the population since 1900. The population growth rate also stalled to historically low levels in 1918 and 1919, due to the Spanish Flu pandemic and World War I. 

Idaho added the most to its population in 2021, with 2.9 percent growth. The District of Columbia and New York had the greatest population declines, losing 2.9 percent and 1.6 percent of their populations, respectively.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate | 145 Comments

Grim beginnings

Posted on December 20, 2021 by grim

Thanks CNN:

US could be in store for a ‘grim beginning’ to the new year, experts warn, as dual variants of Covid-19 spread

With the Delta and Omicron coronavirus variants spreading across the nation as the new year approaches, health experts are urging Americans to get vaccinated or boosted to protect themselves and others before they face greater chances of infection.

Airport travel before Christmas is up by nearly double from a year ago, according toTransportation Security Administration data, with more than two million people screened each day from December 16-18. And the indoor gatherings among friends and family that highlight the holiday season could ultimately infect more who are at higher risk for Covid-19 complications. 

“We’re all anticipating with Delta, with all the travel that we’re doing and all these holiday get-togethers, the beginnings of Omicron and its spread as well as … influenza also making its appearance, we could be in for an ominous winter season and a kind of grim beginning of the new year,” Dr. William Schaffner, a professor in the Division of Infectious Diseases at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, told CNN’s Jim Acosta Sunday.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate | 238 Comments

When do we get our recovery?

Posted on December 19, 2021 by grim

From the NY Federal Reserve:

The Region Is Struggling to Recover from the Pandemic Recession

The pandemic struck the New York-Northern New Jersey region early and hard, and the economy is still struggling to recover nearly two years later. Indeed, employment fell by 20 percent in New York City as the pandemic took hold, a significantly sharper decline than for the nation as a whole, and the rest of the region wasn’t far behind, creating a much larger hole to dig out of than other parts of the country. While the region saw significant growth as the economy began to heal, growth has slowed noticeably, and job shortfalls—that is, the amount by which employment remains below pre-pandemic levels—are some of the largest in the nation. Among major metro areas, job shortfalls in New York City, Buffalo, and Syracuse rank among the five worst in the country. Thus, despite much progress, the region is struggling to recover from the pandemic recession. By contrast, employment has rebounded above pre-pandemic levels in Puerto Rico, reaching a five-year high.

The New York-Northern New Jersey region saw particularly sharp job losses during the pandemic recession (February to April 2020), and the region has not yet caught up to the rest of the nation during the recovery. The chart below shows employment trends through the pandemic, indexed to pre-pandemic (February 2020) levels. With New York City emerging as the epicenter of the pandemic early on, the initial job loss of more than 20 percent in the downstate New York region greatly exceeded the national decline of 15 percent. Similarly, job losses in Northern New Jersey, Fairfield County, and upstate New York were greater than for the nation, at around 17-18 percent.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC | 73 Comments

NJ gets back to work

Posted on December 17, 2021 by grim

From NJ101.5:

As jobless benefits end, NJ sees surge in hiring

As enhanced unemployment benefits expired and tens of thousands of New Jerseyans faced the end of jobless benefits altogether, there are signs the hiring crisis is easing.

The Garden State added back thousands of jobs to the economy in November across nearly all private sectors. The unemployment rate fell to 6.6%, down 0.4%.

New Jersey Department of Labor figures show strong hiring, with 25,800 jobs added in November and 76,000 jobs over the last three months.

The best performing segments of the recovering economy in New Jersey is the professional and business service sector, which added 8,600 jobs.

Strong growth is also seen in the leisure and hospitality sector with more than 3,000 jobs added back.

Only the construction sector saw negative growth, and that is likely due to an annual seasonal fall back as well as supply chain issues with construction materials.

Despite the strong job growth, however, many private employers continue to report issues finding workers and New Jersey still lags behind much of the nation when it comes to pandemic recovery. New Jersey’s unemployment rate remains more than two full percentage points above the national rate of 4.4%.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 247 Comments

Thanks Millennials!

Posted on December 15, 2021 by grim

From the WSJ:

Millennials Are Supercharging the Housing Market

Alex and Michelle Angert lived the last years of their 20s without a permanent address. They moved out of a small Manhattan apartment in 2018 to stay in short-term rentals around the U.S. before embarking on a yearlong honeymoon to travel the world, starting in the Philippines.

When the pandemic cut their travels short last year, Mr. Angert, 31, decided to take a job in public relations in Richmond, Va. He and Mrs. Angert, who is also 31 and works at a healthcare tech company, started house hunting this spring. After losing out on multiple offers, they raised their $400,000 budget. In July, they plunked down $635,000 on a three-bedroom ranch in a tree-filled lot near a Richmond country club.

“I would have had all of these regrets in life if I didn’t travel,” Mr. Angert said. “But it feels like the right time to settle down and put down some roots.”

For years, conventional wisdom held that millennials, born from 1981 to 1996, would become the generation that largely spurned homeownership. Instead, since 2019, when they surpassed the baby boomers to become the largest living adult generation in the U.S., they have reached a housing milestone, accounting for more than half of all home-purchase loan applications last year.

The generation’s growing appetite for homeownership is a major reason why many economists forecast home-buying demand is likely to remain strong for years to come.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate | 303 Comments

Realtors: Just 2.9% in 2022

Posted on December 14, 2021 by grim

From Fortune:

How much 2022 home prices are forecast to shift in each of America’s 100 largest markets

It’s official: The rate of U.S. home price growth is finally beginning to decelerate after 16 consecutive months of price acceleration. 

That deceleration could be the start of a bigger cooldown. At least that’s what Realtor.com, a real estate listing site owned by News Corp., is forecasting. By the end of 2022, the site is predicting U.S. home values will climb just 2.9% as rising mortgage rates take some steam out of the market. That would represent both the smallest annual uptick since 2012 and also a big-time slowdown from the 19.5% U.S. home price jump posted in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index from September 2020 to September 2021.

That said, buyers and sellers alike shouldn’t necessarily expect Realtor.com’s forecast of 2.9% home price growth in their local market. Separate from its national forecast figure, Realtor.com also modeled predictions for year-over-year home price changes in the nation’s 100 largest housing markets. Those projected growth rates vary from 10% in Portland, Maine, to 0.2% in Honolulu. The former represents a bullish market that would look a lot like the 2021 frenzied landscape, while the latter would be a margin of error away from seeing prices fall.

Joining Maine’s largest city in the bullish camp are markets like Providence, R.I. (forecast to jump 9.5%); Salt Lake City (8.5%); Worcester, Mass. (8.2%); Boise (7.9%); Palm Bay, Fla. (7.9%); Stockton, Calif. (7.8%); Spokane, Wash. (7.7%); Boston (7.5%); and Seattle (7.5%) rounding out the top 10. Many of these markets, like Boise and Portland, have seen an inflow of remote workers during the pandemic looking to escape high-cost markets like San Jose. That trend, Realtor.com says, is likely to continue to shake up the market in 2022.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate | 81 Comments

Prognostication Season

Posted on December 12, 2021 by grim

From HousingWire:

Will the housing market continue its hot streak in 2022?

1. Demand will continue to be strong into 2022.

The first signal we look at to forecast the strength of the housing market is days on market – how fast are homes moving? Right now, we’re seeing a median of 49 days on market and climbing, as it normally does this time of year. A typical December would see market time at 85-100 days, so you can see from the chart that demand is staying elevated later in the year, which is a bullish sign for next year.

Due to the strong seasonal patterns, I predict days on market will hit a low of 21 days in April, tying the record-fast market times from earlier this year.

2. Low inventory will continue to be a major issue.

Unfortunately for all these eager homebuyers, inventory continues to be at record low levels. We are currently at just over 350,000 single-family homes on the market. You can see from this chart that inventory has been on a downward trajectory for years, and recent strong demand has only accelerated this trend. You can also see that it’s normal for inventory to drop at this time of year, but it’s actually declining faster than I expected even a few weeks ago, which indicates that we’ll start 2022 with record- low levels of available inventory, even less than in 2021.

At this point, it looks like we’re going to end the year at just under 300,000 single-family homes for sale. If we’re lucky, we’ll start getting greater inventory in the housing market in February, then it’ll start climbing and be at a more normal curve next year, but we’re still miles away from a normal level, with no indication that we’ll return to our usual million homes anytime soon.

3. Home prices will remain high into 2022.

With demand showing no signs of cooling and record-low inventory, I expect home prices to remain high into next year. The median home price for single family homes this week is $375,000, which is about 10% higher than last year and where we are likely to end the year.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate | 81 Comments

Would someone please think of the $550k a year families. They are not rich.

Posted on December 10, 2021 by grim

From the Star Ledger:

96% of N.J. residents would get their full property tax break restored under this Senate plan

Efforts to restore the full federal deduction for state and local taxes have run into opposition from some Senate Democrats who want to limit the tax break to middle-class taxpayers.

One possible compromise circulating on Capitol Hill would do just that — and it would cut taxes for 96% of New Jerseyans, according to a recent study.

Under the proposal, taxpayers making up to $400,000 would be able to deduct up to $80,000 in state and local income and property taxes. The $80,000 figure is included in the House-passed 10-year, $1.75 trillion social spending bill, with no income limit.

…

In New Jersey, that proposal would give 91% of the benefits to those making $400,000 or less and the remainder to those making between $400,000 and $475,000. Under the House-passed provision, 44% of the benefits would go to those making $400,000 or less, 8% to those making between $400,000 and $475,000, and the remaining 48% to those making more than $475,000.

…

Menendez, for example, has suggested setting the income limit for increasing the deduction for state and local taxes at $550,000 rather than $400,000.

“I’m pretty much where I’m going to be,” he said. “If you’re in New Jersey and you’re making 550, you’re not rich. Those families should be taken care of.”

Posted in Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate, Property Taxes | 224 Comments

Zillow predicts the future

Posted on December 9, 2021 by grim

From Zillow (not that they are ever right on anything):

Zillow’s Hot Housing Takes for 2022

2022 will fall just short of record-breaking

Sellers keep the upper hand

Large rentals will be in high demand

The ‘Sun Belt surge’ will extend to secondary markets

More Gen Zers and millennials will buy a ‘second home’ before a primary residence

No end in sight for the renovation boom

Work will play a key role in moving decisions

New construction gains will only be a drop in the bucket, despite best efforts of builders

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate | 178 Comments

Are they really?

Posted on December 7, 2021 by grim

From NJB:

Despite Labor Issues, Companies are Still Eyeing NJ, Panelists Say

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, October marked the tenth consecutive month of nonfarm job gains in New Jersey. The state’s private sector employers added more than 38,000 jobs during the past two months, and overall, New Jersey has now recovered 512,900 jobs, or about 72%, of the number of jobs lost in March and April 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite these gains, there does remain a disconnect when it comes to the state’s unemployment rate, which currently sits at 7%, well above the national average of  4.6%, and the number of job openings in the state, of which there are approximately 300,000.

There are a host of reasons as to why people aren’t going back to work, including child care concerns and now-expired unemployment benefits, but the overall feeling among panelists at the New Jersey Business & Industry Association’s (NJBIA) 2022 Public Policy Forum is that over time, more people will end up reentering the workforce as the state continues to recover from the effects of the pandemic.

“There is still a level of optimism,” said Choose NJ President and CEO Jose Lozano, during a panel discussion at NJBIA’s Public Policy Forum, held at the Delta Hotels by Marriott Woodbridge. “We still have a significant number of companies coming to New Jersey, and still hiring and adding more jobs.”

He said that New Jersey’s well-documented benefits such as its desirable location and highly educated workforce remain attractive to companies despite the state’s current unemployment rate, and, more importantly, its high taxes.

“This region is still the choice region for international companies looking to expand into the US,” Lozano said. “Companies are looking to build the workforce of tomorrow, and the workforce of tomorrow really values some of the things that we in New Jersey take for granted, such as being a great place to raise a family and great school systems.”

Posted in Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 252 Comments

$931,698 – What the average NJ resident will pay in taxes over their life

Posted on December 5, 2021 by grim

From NJ101.5:

New Jersey residents pay the most taxes over a lifetime

The governor downplays it and the media, the PR arm of the Democrat Party, seem to ignore it. Taxes are and have been the biggest concerns of most informed adults in New Jersey for generations. So, when a recent poll came out that points out the fact that taxes are the biggest problem facing the state, most of us without our heads up our asses, said “duh!“

…

In New Jersey, we have a giant, well-funded bureaucracy. Government is just too big in this state. The problem with reducing it now, is that most families have at least someone who is connected to it. So many people want to keep the gravy train going for their mom, dad, son, or daughter and vote for the party of big government, Democrats.

They have a majority in both the assembly and senate that will probably never be overcome. Now we are in a period that we will even elect Democrat governors who promise to raise taxes and thumb their noses at the constituents who complain about it. The big tax that hurts the most and drives so many people out of the state is property taxes. The biggest chunk of that tax goes to pay for public schools, about 70-75%.

…

In New Jersey we have two sets of people. The people who work to pay taxes to feed the machine, and people who make up the giant machine that can’t be satisfied unless taxes go higher and higher. The tax burden is more than just property taxes. We here in New Jersey will pay more taxes than any other state over a lifetime. Some people benefit greatly from those taxes and most of us just suffer through it because we love this state.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Property Taxes | 86 Comments