Tallest, but only for a moment

From the Star Ledger:

Jersey City tower becomes tallest residential building in N.J.

A new Jersey City tower is the tallest residential building in New Jersey—for now.

At 713 feet high and 69 stories, Urban Ready Life (URL) Harborside 1 towers above nearby Trump Plaza and the Merrill Lynch building. City officials, construction workers and the project’s developers celebrated the building’s superlative on Thursday with a flag-raising ceremony. But if other developers get their way, URL’s status as the tallest residential building will be short-lived. A 950-foot residential building is planned for 99 Hudson Street. Journal Squared, which began construction last year, is also poised to become one of the state’s tallest residential buildings.

Developers Ironstate and Mack-Cali touted the tower’s height and said that the project will be a landmark in the city. The threat of being usurped as the tallest residential building doesn’t lessen URL’s impact on the city’s skyline, representatives said.

“We think URL is to residential towers what the Chrysler Building is N.Y.,” Michael DeMarco, president of Mack-Cali, said in a statement. “The Chrysler held the title for tallest building for a short time before the Empire State was built. What was important was how the Chrysler changed how skyscrapers were viewed forever.”

David Barry, president of Ironstate, said the building will be a “timeless milestone in the trajectory of Jersey City.”

“I think it’s symbolic of Jersey City’s vibrancy, its growth and its importance in this state,” he told the crowd on Thursday.

The $330 million development is the first phase of three planned towers, which will consist of 2,358 residences. The first tower will have 763 rentals and will start leasing in the winter of 2016. Attendees on Thursday were able to take an elevator to the 57th floor—which is currently open to the outside— to check out the building’s view of Manhattan. Mayor Steve Fulop said the project will “redefine the entire Gold Coast.”

“It is remaking the entire New Jersey skyline,” Fulop told NJ Advance Media while touring the 57th floor of the building. “We couldn’t be more proud of the growth of Jersey City. The fact that residents fill these buildings up as soon as we build them speaks to the demand of Jersey City.”

Posted in New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 64 Comments

The new closed market

From the WSJ:

Real-Estate ‘Pocket Listings’ Go Mainstream

The 19th-century brick rowhouse on a leafy street in the capital’s upscale Dupont Circle neighborhood is the sort of property that usually would spark a bidding war in a hot real-estate market.

But when the elderly owners were ready to sell, the home didn’t appear in the local real-estate listings. There was no for-sale sign nor even an open house.

Instead, like a growing number of properties sold here and in other major cities, the home was sold as a “pocket listing.” Such properties aren’t advertised to the public but pitched mostly by word-of-mouth among tight-knit networks of agents and their clients.

Pocket listings—also known as “whisper” and “coming soon” listings—have been popular for years among celebrities and the wealthy seeking to shield their privacy. But they increasingly are used by a broader segment as the housing market heats up and inventory remains tight.

The practice has its critics. Some agents say pocket listings are anticompetitive, preventing sellers from getting full market value. Proponents say such listings are useful if homeowners are looking for a quick sale and understand it might result in a lower price.

Even in a strong property market, homes typically spend at least a week or two in a listing database, so appearing for only a day can be a telltale sign of a pocket sale. Though it isn’t required, some agents list pocket sales in the database so the selling price can be registered, helping them keep better track of the market.

Some agents note the practice can lead to problems beyond a lower sale price. Pocket listings punish buyers who lack connections and never have a chance to bid on properties. There is also the risk of discrimination, whether intentional or unintentional, if a property is shown only to an agent whose clients happen to all be white.

There is also the potential for a conflict of interest when an agent finds a buyer from a colleague in the same brokerage, which then collects fees from the buyer and the seller.

State laws don’t prohibit pocket listings, but generally require that agents serve their clients’ best interests, which includes wide-scale advertising to maximize a property’s value, said June Barlow, general counsel at the California Association of Realtors. However, many states allow agents to bypass that step if they get their clients’ written consent.

The trend comes amid growing frustration over a shortage of homes up for sale. Nationally, at the current sales pace, it would take 5.2 months to eat up the supply of existing homes on the market, according to the National Association of Realtors. That’s down from 5.6 months a year earlier and roughly the same level as in 2005, during the housing boom.

Posted in National Real Estate, Unrest | 93 Comments

Zillow not the best deal for consumers?

From MarketWatch:

Something you should know about real-estate agents on Zillow

Consumer advocates have long cautioned against dual agency in real-estate transactions. That’s when the real-estate agent advocating for the seller also represents the buyer.

Common sense dictates this scenario can be detrimental to both parties. The buyer’s agent is supposed to help his or her client get a home for the lowest price; the seller’s agent is supposed to f3tch the highest price. Advocating for both sides seems impossible, yet some consumers still end up in that scenario.

A high percentage of those agents advertising on Zillow enjoyed more dual-agency transactions as a result, according to a recent report from Morgan Stanley. Specifically, it found that 60% of those real-estate agents who advertised as a “premier agent” on Zillow received a 30% increase in these dual-side deals. Financially, that means a big payday for the agent, who doesn’t have to split the commission with someone else — effectively doubling his or her pay.

Zillow representatives point out that users see information for the listing agent and three other agents when they search for homes, and can look at customer reviews of agents on the site as well. “We believe that access to information creates a more efficient and ethical real-estate marketplace,” the company noted in a statement, in response to questions about the Morgan Stanley report.

But the fact that there is so much information on Zillow — including information on home prices and community features — actually can work to confuse consumers, said Chris Whitehead, president of the National Association of Exclusive Buyer Agents. They perceive it as a site for information, but fail to realize it’s mainly a place where agents try and collect clients, he added.

“Zillow, to the consumer, is a resource, but all it is is a lead-generation site for real-estate agents,” he said. “The real-estate industry has become an industry of transactions, not people. That’s what all the advertising out there is built toward — getting another transaction,” Whitehead said.

Posted in General | 48 Comments

Snippy maybe, perhaps Snooty, but never, ever, Snobby…

From the APP:

Snobsville: Where are the snobbiest places in New Jersey?

Here’s the Top 30:

1. Princeton
2. Chatham
3. Mendham
4. Edgewater
5. Glen Ridge
6. Bernardsville
7. Westfield
8. Hoboken
9. Summit
10. Oradell
11. Ridgewood
12. Manasquan
13. Watchung
14. Glen Rock
15. Morris Plains
16. Mountainside
17. Haddonfield
18. Boonton
19. Florham Park
20. Franklin Lakes
21. Englewood Cliffs
22. Allendale
23. Closter
24. Madison
25. Fair Haven
26. Park Ridge
27. Little Silver
28. Montvale
29. Norwood
30. Upper Saddle River

Posted in Humor, New Jersey Real Estate | 119 Comments

Existing home sales fall, nobody cares

From the WSJ:

U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall

Rising home prices are starting to catch up with buyers and may be leading some to put off buying for a little longer.

Existing home sales tumbled 4.8% in August to a 5.31 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, the National Association of Realtors said Monday, the steepest month-to-month decline since January, when they fell 4.9%. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected August sales would drop 1.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.53 million.

Behind the decline were particularly big drops in the West and the South, two areas where prices have risen particularly sharply. In the South, where the median home price is up 6% over a year ago, month-to-month sales fell 6.6%. And in the West, where the median price rose 7.1% over the year, sales were down 7.8%.

Nationwide, the median home price hit $228,700 in August, a 4.7% increase over a year ago.

Analysts said they weren’t particularly troubled by the monthly decline, noting that year-over-year sales were up a robust 6.2%.

“Even with the decline, I believe we are comfortably set for the best home sales year in eight years,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR.

J.P. Morgan economist Daniel Silver said he maintained “a relatively upbeat view on the housing market,” based on low inventory levels and a decrease in foreclosure sales.

“The August lull in existing home sales should prove short-lived because the fundamentals for housing remain highly supportive,” wrote Deutsche Bank economists Joseph LaVorgna, Brett Ryan and Aditya Bhave.

Gregory Daco, head of U.S. macroeconomics at Oxford Economics dismissed the August number as a “hiccup” in a note to clients.

“Rising employment, slowly accelerating wage growth, rising housing demand, slowing home price inflation and mortgage rates at historical lows will underpin greater housing demand and in turn sales through the remainder of the year and into 2016,” he wrote.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 63 Comments

Can someone please school Yellen?

From Bloomberg:

Janet Yellen Sees a ‘Very Depressed’ Housing Market

While Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen heaped praise on the U.S. labor market in her press conference on Thursday, the housing market got little love.

Residential real estate “remains very depressed,” she told reporters after announcing at the end of a two-day meeting that policy makers had decided against raising the benchmark interest rate. “Demand for housing should be there and should materialize as the job market improves and income growth improves.”

So what counts as a “very depressed” level of housing? Yellen cited housing starts that are “below levels that seem consistent with underlying demographics, especially in an economy that’s creating jobs.” Commerce Department data earlier Thursday showed that new-home construction dropped in August after a downward revision to the previous month, representing a pause in a general upward trend.

The Fed chief noted that while it’s “a very small sector of the economy,” housing “plays a supporting role” to bigger drivers such as consumer and business spending. The central bankers “recognize that the housing market is sensitive to mortgage rates” and that an increase in the federal funds rate will eventually impact consumer borrowing costs. Right now, the average 30-year fixed rate is still lingering close to all-time lows.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery | 76 Comments

Underwater owners down 50% from peak

From the NYT:

Fewer Underwater Mortgage Holders

The share of underwater mortgage holders — those who owe more than their homes are worth — has dropped by more than half since peaking in early 2012, according to new data from Zillow.

The decline was driven by rising home values at the lower end of the market, a turnaround from last year. Condominiums were the exception, as their values continued to lag nationwide.

As of the second quarter of 2015, Zillow’s data, which was released earlier this month, showed that 14.4 percent of homeowners with a mortgage had negative equity, compared with 31.4 percent in the first quarter of 2012, the peak.

While the current rate is still a long way from the historically normal negative equity level of around 2 percent, it is markedly lower than the nearly 17 percent rate at the end of last year. The negative equity rate did not budge in the second half of 2014, after dropping steadily for 10 consecutive quarters, because of declining values of lower-priced homes. Another Zillow report released in March had identified 21 major housing markets in which values for the bottom 10 percent of homes were falling, rather than rising. Since then, continued demand for affordable homes coupled with low inventory has helped increase values in the bottom third of homes, lifting more homeowners out of negative territory, said Svenja Gudell, the chief economist of Zillow.

Among the largest 35 metropolitan areas, the highest levels of negative equity were in Las Vegas (25 percent), Chicago (22 percent) and Atlanta (21 percent). New York fell just below the national average, with an overall rate of 12 percent. As in many markets, however, a wide gap separated the negative equity rates at the upper and lower ends of the New York market. About 23 percent of homeowners in the bottom third of homes (by value) were underwater, compared with just 5 percent in the top third, Ms. Gudell said.

The metro-area markets with the highest levels of negative equity for condominiums were Las Vegas (37 percent), Chicago (33 percent) and Orlando (30 percent). The New York metropolitan area (which includes the city, Long Island, northern New Jersey and Westchester) was well below the national average, with 13 percent of condo and co-op owners underwater.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 19 Comments

Repossessions spike? REPOSSESSIONS SPIKE?!?!?!?!

More like “as repossessions finally begin moving from a grinding halt” (and that this is GOOD NEWS)… From the Star Ledger:

N.J. foreclosure rate again ranks among top in U.S. as repossessions spike

While the number of homes entering the foreclosure process in New Jersey fell in August from a year ago, data released on Thursday shows that overall foreclosure activity still rose in the state because of a big spike in bank repossessions.

The state’s foreclosure rate again ranked near the top in the country last month, according to report from the Irvine, Calif.-based housing firm RealtyTrac. Only Nevada and Maryland posted higher rates in August.

More than 2,760 properties in New Jersey started the foreclosure process in August, a 38 percent decrease from a year ago. But, meanwhile, nearly 1,800 properties in New Jersey were repossessed by lenders last month. That’s an increase of 295 percent from a year ago, according to the RealtyTrac data.

Overall one in every 539 housing units in New Jersey had a foreclosure filing in August, the third highest rate in the country. New Jersey, which has a judicial foreclosure process, has consistently ranked near or at the top in the country for its foreclosure rate in recent reports.

Among New Jersey’s counties, Cumberland County posted the highest foreclosure rate in August, followed by Atlantic and Sussex counties, the RealtyTrac report shows.

Though foreclosure activity fell 5 percent in August from a year ago in Atlantic City, that region still had the highest foreclosure rate among metro areas with a population of at least 200,000.

One in every 307 housing units in the Atlantic City area had a foreclosure filing in August, according to RealtyTrac. That is nearly four times the U.S. average.

Trenton posted the second-highest metro foreclosure rate in August, with filings on one in every 384 housing units.

Posted in Foreclosures, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 136 Comments

Go ahead, hike, I dare you.

From Reuters:

For hot New York property market, a Fed move won’t change much

Not even a rate hike from the Federal Reserve is expected to cool off the hot New York commercial real estate market, where demand remains high, industry executives say.

While there aren’t rumblings of an asset bubble in Manhattan property, prices are high, and some valuation metrics are at or near record peaks with sales activity at a record pace.

“I’ve never seen more capital come into this market in 35 years of doing this,” said Peter Hauspurg, chairman and chief executive of Eastern Consolidated, a New York real estate investment service firm.

“There’s been a feeling around the last three or four years that this has become almost monopoly money. We’re awash in cash, the banks can’t lend out enough,” Hauspurg said.

The Fed is due to announce a decision on Thursday afternoon to either end or extend seven years of near-zero interest rates, potentially relieving financial markets of months of uncertainty as investors have been trying to predict the timing of a hike.

Some may see a cautionary flag in the amount of money available to borrow, abetted in part by the Fed’s historically low interest rates. But higher rates won’t necessarily dent commercial real estate and experts say lenders are more disciplined now than the last cycle, when a housing bubble built on easy money burst in 2008 and spawned the Great Recession.

The cash flow has been boosted by more sources of funds – private equity investors, increased securitization, and foreign investment, which rose to more than 40 percent of deals in the first six months of the year, more than double the historical rate.

At the same time, a limited number of properties for sale, particularly larger sites, has acted as a brake on transactions and helped to push up valuations, said Jon Caplan, vice chairman of JLL Capital Markets based in New York.

“We might be at higher numbers if there were more product available,” said Caplan, referring to sales volume.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Development, NYC | 106 Comments

The kids are (mostly) alright

From Marketplace:

Young people dip into housing market

The housing industry appears to finally be in broad recovery mode after years of struggle following the official end of the recession in 2009. Housing starts and sales are rising, home prices are increasing steadily, mortgage rates remain low, and fewer people are stuck in underwater mortgages, locking them in place and making it difficult to sell.

And one key demographic group that could fuel the housing recovery now shows signs of re-entering the market as well: people under 35. This group’s homeownership rate peaked in 2006 and has been declining ever since, falling to just below 35 percent in the second quarter of 2015. But that rate may have bottomed out and started to rebound. Household formation has begun rising after falling during and after the recession. The birthrate also appears to be inching up after declining for nearly a decade.

Fannie Mae recently surveyed young renters and found that the steep fall in homeownership among people under 35 might be more a matter of personal finances and the overall economy than a lifestyle choice. The survey found that 90 percent plan to own a home eventually. But many think it will be difficult for them to save for a down payment or get a mortgage (73 percent of young renters say it would be very difficult to get a mortgage, compared to 50 percent of the general population). The two most often cited obstacles to saving and qualifying for a mortgage are credit standards (which have tightened dramatically since the early 2000s housing boom), and student loan debt.

Another obstacle to homeownership for many young individuals and families — even if they have good jobs and incomes — is rising rents, which make it harder to save for a down payment, especially in hot urban markets.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 47 Comments

Bubble chant continues to grow louder

From HousingWire:

Bubble, bubble? Number of overvalued markets doubles since first quarter

A new report from CoreLogic (CLGX) identifies 14 of the top 100 markets in the U.S. as currently overvalued, double the number as of the end of the first quarter 2015.

CoreLogic’s Market Condition Indicators says that Texas has the largest number of overvalued markets, with five of its six top markets identified as overvalued. The Market Condition Indicators evaluate whether individual markets are undervalued, at value, or overvalued based on the market’s real disposable income per capita.

“Since last year, geopolitical events have shifted in favor of excess oil supply, possibly exerting further downward pressure on oil prices in the next few years and impacting some of these Texas markets. The areas that have become overvalued since last quarter are: Cape Coral, Fla., two Tennessee markets, Knoxville and Nashville – Davidson – Murfreesboro – Franklin, philadelphia, Silver Spring–Frederick–rockville metro in Maryland and Denver–aurora–Lakewood in Colorado. as home prices have risen significantly since 2013, homes have become less affordable, and therefore, home prices less sustainable,” the reports says.

During the bubble years of 2005 through 2007, home prices were more than 10% above the long-run sustainable levels. During the market collapse, home prices quickly fell more than 10% below the sustainable price during late 2010 and early 2013. Subsequently, as home prices have continued to rise, the gap has narrowed to 3.6% below the long-run sustainable level in June 2015 and is expected to remain within the normal range through the end of 2017, with the gap forecasted to shrink further to 1.5%.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 43 Comments

What me worry?

From Real Estate Weekly:

Threat of natural disaster does little to dampen home prices

Do the high real estate prices in New York and New Jersey equal high danger?

The area has certainly seen its share of intense weather in recent years. But while the Tri-State area won’t likely be considered as a backdrop for the next earthquake blockbuster to hit the big screen, a recently released report from RealtyTrac reveals that a significant number of local neighborhoods are likely targets for harsh weather.

The 2015 U.S. Natural Disaster Risk Report found that 35.8 million U.S. single family homes and condos with a combined estimated market value of $6.6 trillion are in counties with high, or very high, natural hazard risk.

Those 35.8 million homes represent 43 percent of the 83.4 million single family homes and condos in all counties analyzed for the report.

For the report, RealtyTrac assigned a natural disaster risk score to 2,318 counties nationwide with sufficient home value data available. Based on its score, each county was assigned to one of five risk categories for overall risk of natural disaster: Very High, High, Moderate, Low and Very Low.

New York and New Jersey ranked in the less favorable categories on multiple occasions.

“In the interest of personal safety and protecting the value of what is likely their biggest financial asset, prospective buyers and investors should be aware of any natural disaster risk impacting a potential home purchase,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac.

“In most cases learning about natural disaster risk will not stop a home sale, but it will help buyers make a better-informed decision about where to buy, and also be prepared, in terms of appropriate insurance coverage and family contingency plans, depending on the type of natural disaster risks most affecting the home they end up purchasing,” Blomquist added.

Blomquist’s optimism regarding home sales is backed up by the fact that home values in high-risk disaster areas throughout the country are stronger than those in regions where the threat of storms, floods, etc. is less daunting.

Homes in Very High risk counties for overall natural disaster risk had an average estimated market value of $170,237, and homes in High risk counties had an average estimated market value of $191,244, according to the report.

Both New York and New Jersey were tagged in a group of states with the most homes in the High Risk or Very High risk categories with New York holding 2.4 million and New Jersey contributing 2.3 million.
Other states with significant numbers in both categories include California (8.4 million), Florida (6.7 million), and North Carolina (2.3 million).

In terms of metro areas with the highest risk, New York City took home the most precarious ranking and registered 3.5 million homes in High risk or Very High risk zones.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, NYC, Shore Real Estate | 35 Comments

Hey NYC – Come to Jersey!

From the NYT:

Buying a Second Home First

Some New York City renters are skipping the typical first rung on the urban homeownership ladder: Instead of investing in an apartment, they are buying a country house. Disappointed by what their budget will buy in the city, they are still living the American dream of having a place of their own, if only on the weekends, in the Catskills, at the Jersey Shore or in Connecticut.

For less than $350,000 — an amount that barely buys a studio in brownstone Brooklyn these days — they are finding that they can afford homes with three bedrooms or more on several acres of land, sometimes on lakefront property, or with a pool. For those with as much as $2 million to spend, the options range from turn-of-the century mansions to sprawling estates.

Graeme Sibirsky and China Aroh Sibirsky are both artists and educators who live in a three-bedroom apartment they rent in Clinton Hill, Brooklyn. With a $600,000 budget, they initially searched for a house of a similar size to buy deeper in Brooklyn, looking as far as Mill Basin, Canarsie and East New York. But within their budget, they found that the places they could afford were smaller than their current apartment. “If we are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars, we need to feel we upgraded, not downgraded, our living space,” Mr. Sibirsky said.

Switching gears, they cut their budget in half and began searching for vacation houses upstate, in Sullivan County and Orange County, N.Y., and the Poconos in Pennsylvania. “We wanted to start investing in real estate, so we decided to start with a vacation home that was more affordable, can be rented on Airbnb and would be fun to enjoy ourselves, and with family and friends,” he said.

“We’re seeing this now more than ever before because prices are historically high in the city,” said Kathy Braddock, a managing director of the New York City office of William Raveis, which also has offices in Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Maine and Vermont. While there always have been New York City renters looking to buy weekend homes, she noted, demand has been so strong that the company is introducing a new division this month called Raveis Escapes, to cater to New Yorkers shopping for their second home first. “A lot of hard-working young people can’t amass a down payment that’s substantial enough” to purchase something in the city, she said, noting that many co-op boards require sizable liquid assets in addition to hefty down payments and closing costs. “But they still want the benefits of homeownership.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 27 Comments

Bubble? Already?

From CNN:

Rising home prices aren’t all good news

Nationwide, the median home price increased 8.2% to $229,400 in the second quarter compared to 2014, according to the National Association of Realtors.

First, the good news: Higher prices increase home equity and help bring some owners above water and increase their wealth.

“People with a lot of equity are more likely to start small businesses and are more likely to move up the economic ladder,” said Bill Wheaton, an economics professor at MIT. “Having collateral propels you in life.”

Now, the bad news: Incomes haven’t kept up. While the unemployment rate has dropped from 10% in October 2009 to the current 5.1%, pay growth has been slow. Hourly earnings rose just 2.2% in August from the year before.

Sluggish wage growth makes it harder for buyers to enter the market — particularly first timers and borderline borrowers.

“When home prices are far outstripping incomes, it will take out the marginal buyer who can qualify for a certain loan and down payment. If home prices continue to increase, those properties are no longer affordable,” said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH.com.

Home prices have recovered unevenly across the housing spectrum. “Homes in the bottom third of the market are appreciating faster on an annual basis than those on the top,” said Zillow’s Chief Economist Svenja Gudell.

“At the same time, incomes at the bottom are flat, and sometimes even declining where incomes at the top are mildly rising.”

“That is too much. You can’t sustain that. If you think of the average worker, what are they to do?”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 60 Comments

Flipping Revel?

From the Star Ledger:

Revel owner trying to flip closed casino to new buyer, power company says

The power company engaged in a prolonged legal battle over energy costs at the former Revel casino claims in a recent court filing that the boardwalk resort’s owner is trying to sell the property.

Lawyers for ACR Energy wrote in documents filed in federal court on Friday that Florida real estate developer Glenn Straub’s Polo North “refuses to pay for energy services, while it tries to flip the nonoperational complex to a new buyer.”

The filing further claims that Polo North has engaged in “knock-down-drag-out war rather than negotiate, leading one to conclude that Polo North is just not interested in operating any business or permitting any business to operate in the complex.”

Straub said he didn’t buy the Revel with the intention of flipping it.

“We didn’t buy it because we wanted to sell it,” he said. “We didn’t buy it if we weren’t going to develop it.”

But Straub also said if somebody makes an offer “that would turn our heads” on any of the properties or other assets his company owns, they’d consider it.

Polo North bought the former Revel Casino, which cost $2.4 billion to build, for $82 million in April. The casino was one of four to close in Atlantic City last year. Straub said then that the property may reopen as early as this summer.

It remains closed.

Posted in New Development, South Jersey Real Estate, Unrest | 143 Comments