More than a million short sales

Posted on October 16, 2012 by grim

From Mortgage News Daily:

HOPE NOW: Short Sales Top 1 Million

HOPE NOW, the voluntary, private sector alliance of mortgage servicers, investors, mortgage insurers and non-profit counselors, reported that its participants completed an estimated 75,968 permanent loan modifications during August. An additional 16,509 modifications were completed through the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). So far this year 400,285 homeowners have received proprietary modifications and HOPE NOW has processed an additional 143,320 through HAMP.
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Short sales, which were virtually non-existent in the early days of HOPE NOW, have grown steadily over the last 2-1/2 years and the program is now utilizing these sales at nearly three times the rate it is putting loans through HAMP modifications. There were 39,559 short sales completed in August, a total of over 1 million since December, 2009.
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Since 2007 HOPE NOW has enabled 4,678,514 homeowners to obtain proprietary loan modifications and 1,076,747 to obtain relief through HAMP for a total of 5.75 million modifications.

Posted in Foreclosures, Mortgages, Politics | 147 Comments

Words to remember: Multigenerational Household

Posted on October 15, 2012 by grim

From the Record:

Area economy still keeping adult children tied to mom and dad

They could never afford their own home but their daughter changed the picture recently, clearing that financial obstacle and allowing them to all live together in one common residence in West Milford.

“It’s a wonderful thing because mom and dad never owned a house before and now they’re all under one roof,” said Karen Wiedmann, broker associate with Re/Max Country Realty, West Milford.

Yet in this tumultuous economy their story is not unique. Several Suburban Trends area sales agents say they too know of experiences where multiple generations live together and often shoulder together the high cost of living in New Jersey.

Walter Molony, public affairs spokesman for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), calls this a “temporary phenomenon” that created “a lot of uncomfortable living situations” from 2008 through 2011 as the floundering economy forced adult children to stay with parents or move in with a lot of roommates.

The real estate industry considers this a pent-up demand for housing, amounting to just shy of 2 million households a year. But it is a demand that Molony expects will begin to be addressed as the real estate market emerges from its “rut of the previous four years.”
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Beyond economics, there is also a cultural influence that leads extended families to share their living space. Those who emigrated from countries where multi-generational housing is more common are not likely to change their habits with economic recovery.

Though Molony anticipates that pent-up demand will help to boost the growth of home sales, for right now, northern New Jersey sales agents continue to work with clients looking for expanded family housing.

“I’m seeing people divorcing and migrating back to their parents’ residences,” said Robert Burr, sales agent with Realty Executives in West Milford.

Then there is the trend of young adults never leaving their parents’ home, or moving back after a bout of independence cut short by housing costs, a trend Wiedmann said she definitely encounters.
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According to the Pew Research Center, by 2009, some 51.4 million Americans were living in multi-generational households, or about 16.7 percent of the population, said Steve Melman, director of Economic Services for the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

“That is up from the low of 12.1 percent of the population in 1980,” he said.

“The drivers are economic and cultural. Many college students have returned home, but so have unemployed relatives.… The economic strategy works…. Among the unemployed, the 2009 poverty rate was 17.5 percent of those living in multi-generational households, but 30.3 percent for unemployed persons not living in those larger households,” said Melman.
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According to Halpin, the number of households headed by someone under 25 years old has fallen steadily over the last four years in New Jersey, supporting the contention that more young adults are remaining in the family nest.

She reports there were 74,466 households headed by someone under 25 years in 2007 in New Jersey, 63,324 in 2010, and 58,700 in 2011.

The Great Recession seems to have taken the greatest toll on households headed by those under 25 years of age, accounting for the biggest demographic change from 2007 to 2010.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 55 Comments

Does real estate need an open bid system?

Posted on October 12, 2012 by grim

From HousingWire:

Power of real estate listing agents questioned

Real estate professionals who are watching housing bidding wars in places like California and Massachusetts are beginning to question whether real estate listing agents have too much power in the sales process.

They fear that in some cases listing agents are involved in a type of insider trading, where they decide the winning bidders without having to provide information on every bid offered.

Bill Wendel, a consumer advocate that founded Real Estate Café, an Internet site for do-it-yourself homebuyers, fears that in Massachusetts, listing agents are using phantom bidders — or bidding information that is never disclosed publicly to all parties — to push up the sale price. Whether it’s occurring or not, he wants more transparency.

“If you are a buyer’s agent, this is what you are paid to do. You are paid to help people make informed decisions. And if you are involved in a decision that is made in the blind, you cannot do your job adequately,” Wendel explained.

And he’s not the only one concerned.

Scott Stockdale launched Clear Offer in Southern California. The new online technology firm aims to bring clarity to the real estate transaction process by giving all of the parties involved time-stamped information on bids.

“The main driver (for launching the product) was the frustration coming from the buyer side of the market where they submit multiple offers and never hear anything back,” Stockdale said. “The whole concept is to create fairness to buyers and maximize seller proceeds.”

Stockdale said California agents are more frustrated with many properties selling for amounts lower than competing bids. This type of situation fosters fears that listing agents are involved in an insider’s game.

“Listings agents are controlling the offer, and they are the least interested in the transaction,” Stockdale said. “The back-end of our system allows asset managers to review offers on REOs.” The product also is designed to help with short sales, according to Stockdale.

Listing agents legally need a seller’s permission to reveal other’s bidding information. But the Clear Offer system gives those wanting to promote full clarity, the option to make offers private or public, Stockdale said.

While technology can address some of these concerns, both Stockdale and Wendel believe something should be done legislatively to make the transaction more apparent to all parties.

Posted in General | 238 Comments

October Beige Book

Posted on October 11, 2012 by grim

From the Federal Reserve:

October Beige Book-Second District–New York

Construction and Real Estate

Residential real estate across the District has continued to improve. Housing markets in metropolitan Buffalo reportedly flattened out in August but picked up sharply in September. Northern New Jersey’s housing market has shown further modest signs of improvement, and there has been a sustained pickup in rental apartment construction, as builders appear to see a persistent shift toward renting. Home prices across northern New Jersey appear to recovering gradually–an industry expert notes that foreclosures and distress sales are no longer pushing down prices of other properties, though they are dampening any increase. Manhattan’s co-op and condo market has remained stable–both in terms of sales activity and prices. The upper end of the market has been relatively strong, partly fueled by foreign buyers. Market conditions are reported to have strengthened in Brooklyn and especially Queens in the third quarter, while Long Island’s housing market is weak but stabilizing. New York City’s apartment rental market remains robust: rents have decelerated a bit in recent months but are still estimated to be rising at a 6-8 percent annual pace.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 187 Comments

Housing sentiment positive and improving

Posted on October 10, 2012 by grim

From Fannie Mae:

Consumer Attitudes on Housing Continue Summer Season’s Gradual Upward Trend

Results from Fannie Mae’s September 2012 National Housing Survey show Americans’ optimism about the recovery of the housing market and with regard to homeownership continued its gradual climb, bolstered by a series of mortgage rate decreases experienced throughout the summer. Consumer attitudes about the economy also improved substantially last month, breaking the progression of waning confidence seen during much of this year.

“Consumers are showing increasing faith in the nascent housing recovery,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae. “Home price change expectations have remained positive for 11 straight months, and the share expecting home price declines has stabilized at a survey low of only 11 percent. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve’s latest round of quantitative easing has caused a large drop in mortgage rate expectations. Friday’s September jobs report, including the strong upward revisions for prior months, a sizable increase in earnings, and a sharp decline in the unemployment rate, should provide further impetus for improving consumer confidence in the housing market.”

Keeping a relatively steady pace with recent periods, survey respondents expect home prices to increase an average of 1.5 percent in the next year. The share who say mortgage rates will increase in the next 12 months dropped 7 percentage points to 33 percent. Nineteen percent of those surveyed say now is a good time to sell, marking the highest level since the survey began in June 2010. Tying the June 2012 level (and the all-time high since the survey’s inception), 69 percent of respondents said they would buy if they were going to move.

With regard to the economy overall, 41 percent of consumers now believe the economy is on the right track, up from 33 percent last month, while 53 percent believe the economy is on the wrong track, compared with 60 percent the prior month. Both the right track and wrong track figures mark the highest and the lowest readings, respectively, since the survey began in June 2010.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 214 Comments

Wave is coming, but how big?

Posted on October 9, 2012 by grim

From the Record:

New York Fed predicts NJ bank repossessions will rise

The number of New Jersey homes repossessed by lenders may increase by 49 percent, and maybe by as much as 140 percent, by the end of 2013, depending on how fast foreclosures move through the courts, according to a new government study.

The report released Friday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, made predictions about future trends in banks’ repossessions of residential properties from defaulted borrowers, based in part on the average time it takes to foreclose, which varies from state to state, and is always in flux.

If the average number of days it takes to foreclose on a property declines, for example, lenders’ repossessions “would rise sharply in most states, tripling in New York and more than doubling in New Jersey,” the study performed for the New York Fed by CoreLogic said.

As of June, lenders in New Jersey had nearly 1,979 properties on their books, and New Jersey ranked 38th among 50 states, the New York Fed said. The top three states were California with 49,299 repossessed properties, or 11.1 percent of the nation’s total; Florida with 44,677, a 10.1 percent share; and Michigan with 38,275, an 8.6 percent share.

The report also found that 16.3 percent of New Jersey residential property sales in July were distressed sales compared with 33.8 percent for the nation. Distressed sales include foreclosure sales, short sales and deeds in lieu of foreclosure.

In New Jersey, residential foreclosures tend to crawl through the court system, taking more than 900 days on average, said John McWeeney, president of the New Jersey Bankers Association.
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A bill sponsored by state Sen. Raymond Lesniak, D-Union, may, if passed, speed foreclosures of abandoned properties, McWeeney said.
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If the average time it takes to foreclose in New Jersey increases in the coming months, the backlog of foreclosed homes in the pipeline is such that the number of repossessions would still rise substantially, by an estimated 49 percent, according to the New York Fed report. On the other hand, if the duration decreases, the number of repossessed properties may climb 140 percent.

“That sounds accurate,” said McWeeney.

Although a foreclosure is a tragedy for a family that loses its home, bankers and economists say the market will not fully recover until an oversupply of distressed properties is resold and cleared from the market.

Once the bank owns the home, it is likely to be sold quickly because lenders do not want to pay the real estate taxes, insurance and maintenance costs, said economist Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors.
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Some banks may be dragging their feet on foreclosing for economic reasons, because home values have declined and they are reluctant to recognize those losses on their books, according to Naroff. Once they foreclose, the losses have to be recognized, he said.

“If banks start seeing prices rise, will they wait longer? They might,” Naroff said.

McWeeney said most banks have been writing down the value of their problem loans before they take possession, so that is not an issue for most banks.

Posted in Economics, Foreclosures, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 222 Comments

Housing in the post-boomer world

Posted on October 8, 2012 by grim

From HousingWire:

Housing goes back in time as boomers hit retirement

Housing will never return to pre-crisis levels with baby boomers aging and the next generation lacking the population numbers to support the credit and homeownership expansion that occurred in the decades leading up to the credit meltdown, Christopher Whalen of Tangent Capital Partners said Friday.

While speaking to an audience at HousingWire’s REperform Summit, a mortgage servicing conference held in Dallas, Whalen said the U.S. economy since the 1980s managed to substitute spending in other areas by leaning on housing.

“This is significant because if you look at the factors that drove housing, the biggest one was the baby boom,” Whalen said. “The population growth after the boom basically drove consumption, and we had this remarkable increase in demand for housing.”

But Whalen said the boomers heading into retirement are leaving smaller populations behind them, making it unlikely housing will ever get back to the peak levels experienced before the 2008 financial crisis.

“When you are looking at things like employment and job growth, you have to reduce your expectations of what you see in the future because the demographics are just not there,” Whalen said.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 153 Comments

Should you test drive before you buy?

Posted on October 6, 2012 by grim

From the NYT:

Trial by Rental

The desire to test-drive the suburbs by renting is understandable. For most families, buying a house is the largest investment they will ever make. In a time of economic uncertainty, with employment continuing to sputter and many people not convinced that the recession is over, the decision looms especially large. The temptation to go slow is powerful.

“Given the dismaying economic news over the past few years, people are afraid,” said Roberta Baldwin, a partner in Keller Williams Realty who recently had five houses for rent in Montclair, N.J., and now has one. “This is the biggest purchase they’ll ever make, and for many people it’s too daunting until they’ve immersed themselves in the fabric of a place.”

Another economic factor is at work. “Prior to 2008,” Ms. Baldwin said, “people felt they had to grab a place because the competition was so great. But now that prices are still flat or rising modestly, people feel they can take time to look around.” Because home prices are not escalating quickly, some owners choose to rent out a house they can’t easily sell. Thus houses that might not otherwise be up for rent are available. In addition, many would-be suburbanites are increasingly choosy. “There’s a new group of buyers, Gen X and Gen Y,” Ms. Baldwin said. “They’re used to living well, and they don’t want to make an architectural or a geographical mistake. They feel they’re entitled. And so they’re stepping tentatively.”

Happily for this population, suburban rents tend to be the same or lower than in the city. Even taking into account property taxes, the money and psychic energy that families save when it comes to schooling are considerable. And the stigma that once attached to suburban families who rent rather than own seems to have largely disappeared.

Families preparing to make the big leap to the suburbs want to make sure they will land in the right place, or as Ms. Frost summed it up: “We weren’t comfortable making such a large investment before we really knew a neighborhood. Before paying out a huge amount of money, we wanted to make sure a town was a good fit.”
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For suburban newbies, a town’s personality is key. While vast amounts of information about everything from taxes to school test scores are available online, to get a sense of subtle but critical factors that determine a town’s true nature, some say there’s no substitute for sinking a few roots. Renting gives you time to see how people dress, observe their habits and eavesdrop on their conversations.
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“The car line where parents drop their children off at school tells you a lot,” said Esther Davidowitz, editor in chief of a cluster of magazines about Westchester County. “If you’re the only Toyota in a line of Mercedes, maybe it’s not exactly your town. If the moms are wearing makeup at 8 in the morning and you’re in your pj’s and T-shirt, that’s a bit of a hint, too.”
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Once in a great while, a family will test-drive the suburbs, then decide that they miss urban life more than they expected and head back to the city. “But that’s very rare,” said Ms. Baldwin, the broker from New Jersey. “I’d say 99 percent of people who start out by renting in the suburbs want to make it permanent.”

Posted in General, New Jersey Real Estate | 86 Comments

Sunny at the Shore?

Posted on October 5, 2012 by grim

From the APP:

Bidding wars, rebounding prices signal the Jersey Shore real estate market is coming back

Shortly after it came on the market, Michelle M. Johnson and her husband rushed to put in a bid on an old, three-bedroom farmhouse in Wall, a home that already attracted the interest of another prospective buyer.

Soon, she found herself in a little bidding war. After bids went back and forth, the seller asked for the best and final offer. “I guess I won,” said Johnson, an auditor. She offered $1,000 more than the asking price.

It’s not like the glory days of 2004 and 2005, but homes are attracting multiple offers again.

In New Jersey, contract sales for the year through August were up 24 percent compared with the same period last year, according to the Otteau Valuation Group, an East Brunswick real estate consulting firm.

Nine of the state’s 21 counties, including Monmouth, saw a median sales price increase, albeit quite small, in the second quarter, the firm said. And the overall median price in New Jersey, down 0.5 percent in the second quarter, is primed to increase in the next couple of quarters.
“It seems like we are about to turn the corner here on house prices pretty soon,” said Jeffrey Otteau, president of the Otteau Valuation. “The bottom line here is there is a recovery taking place.”
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Contract sales have skyrocketed in both counties for the year through August compared with 2011. They’re up 25 percent in Monmouth County and up 26 percent in Ocean County, Otteau said.

And there are fewer homes for sale, another good sign for sellers. Unsold inventory in Monmouth is down 22 percent and in Ocean, 19 percent, according to Otteau’s statistics.
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“There isn’t a lot of picking,” said Diane Turton, broker and owner of Diane Turton Realtors, which has 16 sales offices in Monmouth and Ocean counties. A good listing will result in multiple offers, she said.
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“Home buyers expect that prices are at the bottom now,” Otteau said. “There is less fear of buying at the top and seeing the house you buy be worth less in the future.”

Posted in Housing Recovery, Shore Real Estate | 119 Comments

Government jobs to blame for the 9.9% unemployment rate?

Posted on October 4, 2012 by grim

From Bloomberg:

N.J.’s Vanished Public Jobs Impede Economic Recovery, Study Says

New Jersey’s economic recovery is hindered by the elimination of 61,200 local and state government jobs and Republican Governor Chris Christie’s spending cuts, according to a report issued today.

The 2011 average unemployment rate of 9.3 percent would have been 8 percent with those public positions untouched, according to the study by New Jersey Policy Perspective, a nonpartisan Trenton nonprofit that analyzes issues affecting residents with low to moderate incomes.
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During and since the 18-month recession that ended in June 2009, governments across the nation cut jobs as tax revenue fell. The number of public jobs in 2011 shrank by 1.3 percent, about 280,000 positions, according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce. More than half those positions were with local and state governments.

New Jersey has the fourth-highest jobless rate in the U.S. The August tally, 9.9 percent, was the state’s worst in 35 years. The national rate was 8.1 percent that month.

“The trend in unemployment is beyond dispute,” wrote Raymond Castro, a senior policy analyst.

Government jobs returned to New Jersey after past recessions, the study said. This time, their failure to reappear is stopping companies from hiring, too, the report said.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 141 Comments

Is housing sentiment starting to shift?

Posted on October 3, 2012 by grim

From CNN/Money:

Economists: Housing recovery finally here

It’s been a long time coming, but economists surveyed by CNNMoney believe the nation’s housing market has finally turned the corner.

Of the 14 economists who answered questions about home prices in the survey, nine believe that prices have already turned higher or will make that turn later this year. Only three months ago, half of the economists surveyed by CNNMoney believed a turnaround in prices would not take place until 2013 or later.

Economists have been encouraged by a variety of readings, including three straight months of increases in the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, a pick-up in sales of existing homes and home construction and a big jump in the price of new home sales.

Mortgage rates are also likely to remain near record lows thanks to the Federal Reserve’s purchase of $40 billion in mortgages a month for the foreseeable future.
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Still, economists don’t believe housing is ready to be a major driver of economic growth, as it was during the housing boom and some earlier economic recoveries. But housing could keep the economy moving in the right direction.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 165 Comments

Morgan Stanley: All clear on the housing front

Posted on October 2, 2012 by grim

From HousingWire:

Morgan Stanley declares housing out of the woods

Investment house Morgan Stanley is pretty confident about the housing recovery.

In fact, even with mortgage servicing regulation coming and decisions on qualified mortgages forthcoming, Morgan Stanley believes the housing market will not only withstand this, but come out a more than a little on top.

Here is the bold prediction:

“We expect to see 2012 end with an increase of 7-9% for the year in aggregate home prices after considering seasonality effects for the remainder of the year, with the possibility of a 10-12% increase on the bullish side and a 4-6% increase as the bear case,” write analysts in the latest Housing Markets Insight report. ” We view the bear case outcome to be relatively less likely.”
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And let’s not forget the Fed.

“Recent actions by the Federal Reserve, the commitment to keep interest rates lower for longer as well as the launch of an open-ended QE3, convince us that this low mortgage rate environment and the demand response for housing are likely to prevail for an extended period – well into the future,” they conclude.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery | 156 Comments

Obama: Congress standing in the way of the housing recovery

Posted on October 1, 2012 by grim

From the Hill:

Obama calls on Congress to pass refinancing bill

President Obama urged Congress on Saturday to pass a refinancing bill to provide a boost to the gradually recovering housing market.

In his weekly address, the president argued that the 2008 financial crisis, created largely by the collapse of a housing market overloaded with bad mortgages, hurt millions of responsible homeowners and could use some more help.

“Millions of Americans who did the right and responsible thing — who shopped for a home, secured a mortgage they could afford, and made their payments on time — were badly hurt by the irresponsible actions of others,” Obama said.

“The truth is, it’s going to take a while for our housing market to fully recover,” he said.

“But it’s going to take a lot more time – and cause a lot more hurt – if Congress keeps standing in the way.”

Even though the Obama administration has taken steps to help hundreds of thousands of homeowners refinance their mortgages, more action is needed to not only help the housing sector but the bolster the overall economy.

“But we need Congress’s help to do more,” he said.

Obama touted the plan he sent Congress in February that would save homeowners about $3,000 a year on their mortgages. The plan includes other “aggressive steps” to help the ailing housing sector, including providing homeowners with a chance to refinance into lower-interest-rate mortgages.

“It’s a plan that has the support of independent, nonpartisan economists and leaders across the housing industry,” he said.

“But Republicans in Congress worked to keep it from even getting to a vote. And here we are — seven months later — still waiting on Congress to act.

“This makes no sense.” he said.
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“When folks are spending less on mortgage payments, they’re spending more at local businesses,” Obama said.

“And when those businesses have more customers, they start hiring more workers.”

The Senate intends to take up the measure first thing on their return in November.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, Politics | 167 Comments

August Otteau Report

Posted on September 29, 2012 by grim

From the Otteau Group:

Home Purchases Accelerating

Home purchase demand continues to rise in New Jersey where purchase-contracts increased in August by 29% y-o-y for the 11th consecutive month. Going back to May 2011, housing demand has increased in 15-of-16 months. The improvement comes as a result of lower home prices and mortgage rates, increased buyer confidence and an extremely favorable rent-to-own comparison. YTD purchase contracts in New Jersey have risen 24%, to the highest level since 2007. Even more impressive is that the 2012 sales pace is 11% above the 2010 pace, which benefitted from homebuyer tax credits at that time.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 102 Comments

August contracts down nationally, but up in the Northeast

Posted on September 28, 2012 by grim

From the NAR:

Pending Home Sales Decline in August

After reaching a two-year peak, pending home sales fell in August but are at elevated levels compared with a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, declined 2.6 percent to 99.2 in August from an upwardly revised 101.9 in July but is 10.7 percent above August 2011 when it was 89.6. The data reflect contracts but not closings.

Contract activity in July 2012 was at the highest level since April 2010 when buyers were rushing to beat the deadline for the home buyer tax credit.
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“The index shows 16 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, and that has translated into a higher number of closed sales. Year-to-date existing-home sales are 9 percent above the same period last year, but sales were relatively flat from 2008 through 2011,” Yun added.

Existing-home sales this year are expected to rise 9 percent to 4.64 million, and gain another 8 percent in 2013 to nearly 5.02 million. With generally balanced inventory conditions in many areas, the median existing-home price is projected to rise about 5 percent in both 2012 and 2013.

The PHSI in the Northeast rose 0.9 percent to 78.2 in August and is 19.9 percent above August 2011. In the Midwest the index declined 2.6 percent to 95.0 in August but is also 19.9 percent higher than a year ago. Pending home sales in the South slipped 1.1 percent to an index of 110.4 in August but are 13.2 percent above August 2011. With broad inventory shortages in the West, the index fell 7.2 percent in August to 102.5 and is 4.2 percent below a year ago.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 139 Comments