Sandy Stimulus?

From Bloomberg:

Sandy Seen Boosting U.S. With as Much as $240 Billion Rebuilding

John Cataneo is working his 20 employees overtime and still can’t keep up with demand from customers who need plumbing repaired after superstorm Sandy. He says he’s hired two new workers and may need more.

“We’re just not getting to some people that are asking for help,” said Cataneo, co-owner of Gateway Plumbing & Heating in Manhattan. “But we’re doing the best we can.”

Cataneo’s experience shows how the storm is giving the U.S. Northeast — and the rest of the country — an economic boost that may eventually surpass the loss of business it caused. Reconstruction and related purchases and hiring may range from $140 billion to $240 billion and increase U.S. economic growth by 0.5 percentage point next year, assuming $50 billion in losses, according to Economic Outlook Group LLC, a Princeton, New Jersey-based forecasting firm.

“Construction costs to rebuild all that was lost will be more than simply replacement because a lot of the work will also involve fortifying structures,” said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at Economic Outlook. “We’ll see construction ramped up, and that’s going to bring in jobs and an increase in demand for material of all sorts, and that’s going to further stimulate the economy.”

Estimates of insured damage caused by Sandy range from $7 billion to $25 billion. When lost wages and sales are added, the total comes to $50 billion, according to Oakland, California-based catastrophe risk modeler Equecat Inc. — a figure that may be recouped next year as repair and reconstruction efforts spur new building and sales of household goods.

Sandy may reduce economic growth by 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter after it disrupted industrial production, retail sales and employment, according to economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Most of the reconstruction will take place in the first quarter of 2013, adding as much as half a point to growth, according to a Nov. 21 note to clients.

Reconstruction following a storm has an effect similar to a government-funded stimulus program, said Gary Schlossberg, a San Francisco-based senior economist at Wells Capital Management, which oversees about $331 billion.

“It’s certainly a form of stimulus, no doubt, and the ripple effects of the spending could leave you further ahead than where you were at the start before the storm,” said Schlossberg. “The administration wouldn’t want a hurricane to be a source of stimulus because the costs in losses and suffering outweigh the benefits.”

Posted in Economics, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 153 Comments

Thanksgiving Open Discussion

This is the time and place to post observations about your local areas, comments on news stories or the New Jersey housing market, open house reports, etc. If you have any questions you wanted to ask earlier in the week but never posted them up, let’s have them. Also a good place to post suggestions, requests for information, criticism, and praise.

For readers that have never commented, there is a link at the top of each message that is typically labeled “[#] Comments“. Go ahead and give that a click, you might be missing out on a world of information you didn’t know about. While you are there, introduce yourselves to everyone.

For new readers that have only read the messages displayed on the main page, take a look through the archives, a substantial amount of information has been put online in the past year. The archives can be accessed by using the links found in the menus on the right hand side of the page.

Posted in General | 65 Comments

Fire sale or the next boom?

From Reuters:

After Sandy, some dump homes, while others hunt for bargains

“Reduced for Quick Sale!” reads Mike Montalbano’s Craigslist ad for the three-bedroom home he needs to sell before he can relocate for a new job.

The drywall is new, as are the appliances. The only problem? Location. Montalbano’s home is in Tom’s River, New Jersey, which was pummeled by last month’s Sandy megastorm.

“A lot of people are scared to come back to the water,” says Montalbano. “Back in the day, everybody wanted to come to the shore. Now it’s a mess down here.”

Montalbano was lucky. His home sits higher than others, and the storm waters hit his lawn but did not make it into his house.

That has not proved compelling to would-be buyers. His house is listed for $245,900, some $5,000 less than his original asking price. And even if he sells for that amount, he will lose about $40,000 on the property.

Several renters have inquired, but Montalbano fears that tenants could hurt his property. On the other hand, he does not think his odds of selling are very good. “The market will come back, but who knows when?” he says.

That is the “crystal ball” question that no one in Sandy-affected areas such as the New Jersey shore, Staten Island, New York and New York City’s Rockaway Peninsula can answer.

But there are a few things real estate agents can say with confidence.

First, the rental market in these areas is set to explode, thanks to a combination of displaced homeowners and contractors needing temporary housing.

Second, currently scheduled closings will be held up as buyers try to renegotiate and banks require new inspections and appraisals.

And third, investors looking for fire sales will come sniffing around.

“I’ve had people calling me saying, ‘I’m interested in oceanfront, and I’m ready to buy it now for $500,000,'” says Robin Shapiro, whose real estate business in Neponsit, New York, on the Rockaway Peninsula bears her name. “That’s not going to happen. Last month a property in Neponsit sold for $5 million. No one is dumping these oceanfront properties.”

History might prove her right. In South Carolina, where the barrier islands were trounced by Hurricane Hugo in 1989, home values rose sharply in the years immediately following and have been on an upward trajectory ever since.

A Zillow.com analysis shows home prices along the South Carolina coast rose 2.3 percent over the last 10 years, twice the rate of inland properties in the state.

Michael Scarafile, president of Carolina One Real Estate in North Charleston, South Carolina, remembers how Hugo led to an influx of properties on the market – and hordes of investors.

“Immediately afterward, you had opportunistic people taking advantage of people who said, ‘I’m done; I’m selling the house as is,'” Scarafile says.

Those who did not sell brought in a kind of post-Hugo renaissance.

Old bungalows that were completely destroyed or condemned gave way to new construction of high-end homes that could better withstand the next storm. The bridge to the barrier Isle of Palms was washed out by Hugo and replaced by a stronger structure that could handle more traffic. Palm trees replaced power lines, which were placed underground. And everyone was putting in new kitchens and new roofs, which revitalized the existing housing stock.

“Over the next year or two, the islands really had a new birth,” says Scarafile. “Memories are short. And now here we are, 23 years later, and we’ve never had anything close to Hugo.”

Realtors in Sandy-affected regions can only hope to repeat Charleston’s story. For now, the mood is anxious and uncertain, and anyone looking to make a tidy profit in storm-damaged real estate is taking a risk.

Posted in Housing Recovery, Shore Real Estate | 71 Comments

Rise Up!

From the WSJ:

Shore’s Toll ‘Worse Than We Thought’ .

Nearly three weeks after Sandy came ashore on the New Jersey coast, some of the beach towns that made this area famous remain largely empty and dark, shells of their bustling summer selves.

The scope of the destruction didn’t come into focus for many homeowners until this weekend, when authorities began letting people back into communities still covered in mounds of sand and littered with debris. Some year-round residents, others seasonal, they trickled back to the seaside and witnessed the wreckage they had heard about.

“Complete devastation,” said Bob Larosa, 54 years old, who was waiting in front of his home Sunday for the bus back to the mainland from this Jersey Shore destination after a long day of sorting through the damage. “It feels like a complete loss.”

Mr. Larosa said he and his wife, Kathy Larosa, 55, bought their one-story bungalow as a vacation home in Ortley Beach eight years ago. They live in Roseland, N.J., full time.

The couple had seen photos of their home before coming in person, and knew it was still standing. But nothing prepared them for the inside.

“We’ve been looking at the pictures, but I still walked in the backyard and started crying,” said Ms. Larosa, a teacher. “It’s the kind of thing you see on TV, and you think it happens to other people.”

A pile of destroyed carpets, mattresses and a vacuum cleaner sat outside their home. The fence was caved in on the side. But she said they will rebuild.

“We’re going to have to,” Ms. Larosa said.

John Messner was ripping out dry wall and insulation from the three-story home where his daughter lives full-time. He put it in black plastic bags and piled it outside. He said he hadn’t had time to do much more than that. “It’s a lot worse than when I left it,” said Mr. Messner, a real-estate broker and appraiser from Drexel Hills, Penn. “[The water] came up under the door and up through the floors. The insulation was soaked, so it just sat there for two weeks.”

Buses carried many into Ortley Beach, but they had to leave by 2 p.m. Toms River police Cpl. Ron Rader helped organize the rides. He said more than 2,000 people came. Some shed tears.

“All of them, it’s the same thing: ‘We expected the worst, but it’s so much worse than we thought it would be,'” he said. “I don’t think it’s sunk in yet.”

But some people had nothing left and so they grabbed a small memento and called it a day, he said. “I’ve seen people getting off the bus, seeing their home and getting right back on,” he said. “There’s nothing left.”

Posted in Shore Real Estate | 87 Comments

October Existing Home Sales

From Bloomberg:

Sales of U.S. Existing Houses Probably Held Near Two-Year High

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes probably held in October near a two-year high, indicating the recovery in residential real estate is being sustained by cheap borrowing costs, economists said a report may show today.

Purchases held at a 4.75 million annual rate last month, according to the median forecast of 64 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. In August, demand reached a 4.83 million rate, the most since May 2010. Homebuilder confidence probably held at a six-year high in November, another report may show.

Propelled by the lowest mortgage rates on record, cheaper properties and improved consumer sentiment, housing is one of the economy’s sources of strength. The pace of October sales underscores what Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke called “signs of improvement” in a market still hampered by strict bank-lending standards.

“You’ve got low mortgage rates, you’ve got gradual improvement in the labor market, and you have very low inventories,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina, a subsidiary of the largest U.S. mortgage lender. “Housing is positioned to move significantly higher over the next year.”

The report from the National Association of Realtors is due at 10 a.m. in Washington. Bloomberg survey estimates ranged from 4.55 million to 5.05 million.

Posted in Employment, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 62 Comments

North Jersey Contracts – October 2012

(Source GSMLS, except Bergen which is based off NJMLS)

October Pending Home Sales (Contracts)
——————————-

Bergen County
October 2011 – 549
October 2012 – 640 (Up 16.6% YOY)

Essex County
October 2011 – 403
October 2012 – 519 (Up 28.8% YOY)

Hunterdon County
October 2011 – 226
October 2012 – 282 (Up 24.8% YOY)

Morris County
October 2011 – 434
October 2012 – 599 (Up 38.0% YOY)

Passaic County
October 2011 – 343
October 2012 – 431 (Up 25.7% YOY)

Somerset County
October 2011 – 362
October 2012 – 450 (Up 24.3% YOY)

Sussex County
October 2011 – 230
October 2012 – 334 (Up 45.2% YOY)

Union County
October 2011 – 381
October 2012 – 474 (Up 24.4% YOY)

Warren County
October 2011 – 202
October 2012 – 274 (Up 35.6% YOY)

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, North Jersey Real Estate | 69 Comments

Housing tight in a post-Sandy NJ

From the WSJ:

Landlords Offer Homes to Displaced

Private landlords in New York City have offered to provide several thousand vacant units to house people displaced by the superstorm Sandy, according to people familiar with the matter.

It is just one of the solutions being rapidly concocted as both New York and New Jersey rush to tackle the most daunting task of Sandy’s aftermath: housing tens of thousands of newly homeless people, in a region with few apartments and little empty land.

Government officials, nonprofit organizations and academics have floated myriad solutions—from parking a cruise ship in New York Harbor to housing people temporarily in abandoned subway stations. More realistically, officials are cobbling together a plan consisting of vacant apartments and rental houses, government-issued housing units and even a defunct military barracks in New Jersey. They also expect that some displaced people will find shelter with friends and family.

“The 1% [in Manhattan] vacancy is one thing. Another is we’re land-constrained. We are in a housing emergency as we are every year. It’s an emergency situation on top of an existing emergency housing situation,” said Corinne Packard, a professor who teaches post-catastrophe reconstruction at New York University’s Schack Institute of Real Estate.

Ms. Packard said she isn’t concerned the city won’t be able to come up with enough housing for everyone, but time won’t be on its side.

“The question is how long will people have to live in this tenuous, temporary situation?” she said.

Mayor Michael Bloomberg has publicly speculated that as many as 40,000 people could be displaced by Sandy. He has since revised that estimate to fewer than 10,000, but estimates of the region’s newly homeless remained unclear Thursday.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency said Thursday that more than 96,000 applicants are eligible for housing money—about 63,000 in New York and almost 33,000 in New Jersey. Some of those have been approved for assistance with paying for hotels, while others have received payments for longer term repairs to their homes or help with short-term rental units.

In New Jersey, real estate groups and hotels have identified more than 5,000 units that could be made available, said Lisa Ryan, a spokeswoman for the state Department of Community Affairs.

The New Jersey Association of Realtors has sent listings of homes to FEMA that could be rented on a temporary basis, including vacant summer homes. But a lack of rental supply may require people to move outside their immediate vicinity, said Jarrod Grasso, the association’s CEO. “It’s an inconvenience but at least it’s a roof over their heads,” Mr. Grasso said about those searching for apartments.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 155 Comments

NJ Foreclosures up 140%, does it matter?

From the Record:

Foreclosure filings rise in NJ

Lenders continued to ramp up foreclosure activity in New Jersey last month, as mortgage companies worked through the backlog of cases that piled up in the wake of accusations that lenders were abusing homeowners’ rights in a rush to evict.

Foreclosure filings climbed 140 percent in the state in October, compared with a year earlier, according to RealtyTrac. That increase was the biggest nationwide. For the U.S. overall, foreclosure filings slid 19 percent from a year earlier.

Yet New Jersey’s foreclosure rate remains well below the national pace. In New Jersey, one in every 1,200 households got a foreclosure filing in October, compared with one in every 706 nationwide. RealtyTrac counts all filings that are part of the foreclosure process, from the lender’s first notice that the homeowner is in default to sale of the property at sheriff’s auction.

Posted in Economics, Foreclosures, Housing Recovery, New Jersey Real Estate | 154 Comments

Paying the Sandy Tax

From Bloomberg:

Christie Says Damage Costs From Sandy Outside Tax Cap

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie said property owners in areas devastated by Superstorm Sandy may face higher tax bills, as local governments exceed his 2 percent cap on annual increases to cover rebuilding costs.

The state may release a preliminary tally of the damage and revenue effects as soon as Nov. 16, Christie, 50, said today in a Statehouse news briefing. He said municipalities will be able to get federal aid to cover some rebuilding costs, and said the property-tax increase cap he and lawmakers passed in 2010 has a natural-disaster exemption.

“It tells taxpayers in towns that were destroyed that they’re probably going to have higher taxes — it’s got to be paid for,” Christie said. “Most people in these towns will recognize that if they believe the money is being spent reasonably and responsibly to rebuild their towns, they’ll be happy to do it.”

Christie has made controlling the state’s highest-in-the- U.S. tax burden on residents a mainstay of his administration. New Jersey’s homeowners paid an average of $7,759 in real-estate levies last year.

Christie said today it was “silly’” to speculate on how the storm may affect tax growth. He has already pushed back a quarterly deadline to pay property levies and said today that he may work with the Democrat-controlled Legislature to set up a tax-relief program for storm victims.

The governor also said he won’t support a higher gasoline tax to fix the state’s transit system, which was heavily damaged by the storm. He said he has no estimate for how the clean-up efforts may affect property tax bills, and said he still supports his proposed tax-cut until he sees more proof that dealing with Sandy makes it less affordable.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Property Taxes | 172 Comments

Foreclosure a big bargain? Maybe not.

From HousingWire:

Falling REO inventory dries up foreclosure discounts

Some metro areas across the U.S. are experiencing steep discounts on foreclosed properties – upwards of 27% in some cases – but the overall mark-down is not as deep as it seems, Zillow said in a new report.

The online real estate listing firm said the national-foreclosure discount on distressed properties is about 7.7%, a paltry amount considering how much lower REOs sell for in certain locales.

Truth is, there are fewer foreclosures out there. Last month, RealtyTrac the online marketplace for foreclosures, reported a yearly decrease in 131 out of the nation’s 212 metropolitan areas.

“Two-thirds of the nation’s largest metros posted decreases in foreclosure activity in the third quarter, indicating that most of the nation’s housing markets are past the worst of the foreclosure problem” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac.

Zillow uses a different methodology, of course, and compares the sales price of a foreclosure to the estimated-non-distressed sale level of the exact same property.

Metros like Pittsburgh and Cleveland experience foreclosure discounts as steep as 27.4% and 25.8%, respectively.

“The smallest foreclosure discount is found in places where competition for homes is so high, people there are willing to pay the same amount for a foreclosure re-sale that they would for a non-distressed home simply to take advantage of historic affordability,” said Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries. “Additionally, in areas such as Phoenix and Las Vegas, where not long ago one out of every two homes sold was a foreclosure re-sale, buying a foreclosure is no longer just for investors.”

Sacramento is a market where the foreclosure discount is a small 0.7% difference from an average property price. In the high-priced Los Angeles and New York markets, foreclosure discounts are now running at 4.2% and 15.5%, respectively.

Posted in Economics, Foreclosures, Housing Recovery | 189 Comments

They will return … to higher prices?

From Bloomberg:

Jersey Shore’s Lure to Homebuyers Seen Surviving Hurricane Sandy

Danea Kelly made her first shopping trip for a New Jersey shore vacation home on the Saturday before Hurricane Sandy made landfall. It won’t be her last.

While Kelly, 41, decided she no longer wants property directly on the ocean, the storm may open up new opportunities.

“You take your chances anytime you get involved with real estate,” said Kelly, who is house-hunting with her brother in North Wildwood, which dodged the worst of the Oct. 29 storm that tore apart the boardwalk in Atlantic City, 40 miles (65 kilometers) up the coast. “We may now have less competition from other buyers and it might steer some people who have lived down there a long time, who may decide, ‘It’s time for me to sell.’”

Real estate markets on the Jersey Shore will suffer in the wake of Sandy, which inflicted as much as $50 billion of business and property losses and caused at least 100 deaths in the U.S. In the hardest-hit communities, rebuilding of bridges, roads, dunes and homes will take months or even years. Home construction and insurance costs will probably rise.

While it will take time for buyers to regain confidence after the storm and last year’s Hurricane Irene exposed the vulnerabilities of oceanfront property, they will return, as they did to storm-wracked beaches in Florida, North Carolina and Texas, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

“The allure of having an oceanfront property is just too great,” Yun said in a telephone interview from Washington. “People recognize that there are bad natural-disaster events and they just cross their fingers and hope it doesn’t happen to them.”

When house-hunters come back, they’ll compete for a reduced supply of undamaged homes with higher asking prices, according to Yun. Rebuilt properties will feature costly upgrades such as sturdier roofs and wind-resistant windows, which also may push up resale prices.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, Shore Real Estate | 139 Comments

BofA: Home Prices to increase 3.3% a year for the next 10 years

From HousingWire:

BofA Merrill Lynch analysts forecast 5% rise in home prices

Bank of America Merrill Lynch revised its housing forecast upward due to a better alignment of supply and demand, and now predicts the S&P/Case-Shiller Index will increase by 5% in the fourth quarter over 4Q 2011.

That translates into an average price gain of 2.1% this year compared to 2011.

In August, BofA analysts predicted prices would rise 2% in the fourth quarter over the year-ago quarter. That was also a revision upward. In March, BofA Merrill Lynch forecasted the bottom in national home prices. However, it underestimated the magnitude of the turn.

The analysts also expect average home price appreciation of 3.3% a year over the next 10 years, a cumulative gain of about 36%.

BofA still expects home prices to slow down into the end of the year.

“It is important to remember that the housing market is subject to volatility in the best of times; in this distorted market, we cannot expect a smooth pattern,” the research note said.

It predicts that national prices will increase 5.6% quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter of 2012, following a 9.3% gain in the second quarter. It predicts flat prices in the fourth quarter of this year as well as a decline of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2013 before prices begin to trend upward.

The main component driving the forecasted increase in home prices is a better alignment of housing supply and demand. Inventory of homes for sale continues to decline because of pickup in house demand, a slow clearing rate for distressed properties and a significantly below normal pace of new home construction.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 238 Comments

Widespread recovery in home prices?

From Bloomberg:

Home Prices Rise in 81% of U.S. Cities as Markets Recover

Prices for single-family homes rose in 81 percent of U.S. cities as the property market extends a recovery from the worst crash since the 1930s.

The median sales price increased in the third quarter from a year earlier in 120 of 149 metropolitan areas measured, the National Association of Realtors said in a report today. In the second quarter, 110 areas had gains.

“The housing recovery still faces a number of potential headwinds,” Paul Diggle, property economist for Capital Economics Ltd. in London, said in a note to clients after CoreLogic’s report was released. “But our central case is that tight supply conditions will mean that house prices will continue to rise steadily next year.”

At the end of the third quarter, 2.32 million existing homes were available for sale, 20 percent fewer than a year earlier, according to the Chicago-based Realtors group.

From the WSJ:

Home Prices Up 7.6% From Year Ago .

Home prices appreciated in a growing number of cities during the third quarter, the latest evidence that the real estate recovery is gaining momentum and breadth.

The median price for an existing single-family home was $186,000 in the third quarter, up 7.6% from a year earlier and the largest year-over-year growth since 2006, according to a report Wednesday from the National Association of Realtors. More cities saw gains. Single-family home prices rose in 120 of 149 metropolitan areas tracked by the NAR, up from 110 in the second quarter and 39 in the year-ago period.

Many of the sharpest home-price rebounds have been in markets hard hit by the real estate bust. In the Phoenix metropolitan area, for instance, median prices were up 34.9% from a year ago, according to the NAR. Three cities pummeled by the bust—Las Vegas, Miami, and Riverside, Calif.—all were in the top 20 for price gains with year-over-year increases between 12.0% and 12.7%.

All told, low home prices, rising rents and a slowly improving economy have given more Americans the motivation and confidence to become home owners. About 72% of respondents said it was a good time to buy a home, according to a monthly survey Fannie Mae issued Wednesday. While many consumers expect home prices to rise only modestly over the next year, they believe rental rates will continue to climb, further motivating them to buy.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 236 Comments

Corelogic HPI jumps in September

From the AP:

Sustainable housing recovery evident: Home prices in many states rose steadily through year

A measure of U.S. home prices jumped 5 percent in September compared to a year ago, the largest year-over-year increase since July 2006. The gain reported by CoreLogic offered more evidence of a sustainable housing recovery.

The real-estate data provider also said Tuesday that prices declined 0.3 percent in September from August, the first drop after six straight increases. The monthly figures are not seasonally adjusted. CoreLogic said the monthly decline reflects the end of the summer homebuying season and not a softening in the housing recovery.

Steady price increases should give the housing market more momentum when home sales pick up during the spring. Rising prices encourage more homeowners to sell their homes and entice would-be buyers to purchase homes before prices rise further.

Other measures have also shown healthy gains in home prices in the past year. The Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller 20-city index rose 2 percent in August compared to a year ago, a faster pace than the previous month.

The price gains in the past year reported by CoreLogic were widespread. Prices have risen in all but seven states. And they declined in only 18 out of 100 large cities that are tracked by the index.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 216 Comments

Ask … and ye shall receive?

From HousingWire:

October home prices rise 2.9% as rents soar above 5%

Home prices rose 2.9% over last year in October, but had nothing on the rental market which saw rates rise 5.1% from 2011 levels, Trulia said Monday.

The numbers show a national real estate market that is experiencing gradual price appreciation. Yet, the impact of potential buyers unable to obtain mortgages is exemplified by climbing rental rents, especially in markets like Houston and Miami, where rents rose 16.5% and 10%, respectively.

The online real estate site released this data from its Trulia Price Monitor and Trulia Rent Monitor for the month of October.

Prices from September to October edged up 0.7%, according to real estate listing data within Trulia’s website.

When removing distressed assets from the equation, home listing prices grew 3.6% from October 2011 to last month.

Posted in Economics, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 239 Comments