From Bloomberg:
Sandy Seen Boosting U.S. With as Much as $240 Billion Rebuilding
John Cataneo is working his 20 employees overtime and still can’t keep up with demand from customers who need plumbing repaired after superstorm Sandy. He says he’s hired two new workers and may need more.
“We’re just not getting to some people that are asking for help,” said Cataneo, co-owner of Gateway Plumbing & Heating in Manhattan. “But we’re doing the best we can.”
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Cataneo’s experience shows how the storm is giving the U.S. Northeast — and the rest of the country — an economic boost that may eventually surpass the loss of business it caused. Reconstruction and related purchases and hiring may range from $140 billion to $240 billion and increase U.S. economic growth by 0.5 percentage point next year, assuming $50 billion in losses, according to Economic Outlook Group LLC, a Princeton, New Jersey-based forecasting firm.“Construction costs to rebuild all that was lost will be more than simply replacement because a lot of the work will also involve fortifying structures,” said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at Economic Outlook. “We’ll see construction ramped up, and that’s going to bring in jobs and an increase in demand for material of all sorts, and that’s going to further stimulate the economy.”
Estimates of insured damage caused by Sandy range from $7 billion to $25 billion. When lost wages and sales are added, the total comes to $50 billion, according to Oakland, California-based catastrophe risk modeler Equecat Inc. — a figure that may be recouped next year as repair and reconstruction efforts spur new building and sales of household goods.
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Sandy may reduce economic growth by 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter after it disrupted industrial production, retail sales and employment, according to economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Most of the reconstruction will take place in the first quarter of 2013, adding as much as half a point to growth, according to a Nov. 21 note to clients.
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Reconstruction following a storm has an effect similar to a government-funded stimulus program, said Gary Schlossberg, a San Francisco-based senior economist at Wells Capital Management, which oversees about $331 billion.“It’s certainly a form of stimulus, no doubt, and the ripple effects of the spending could leave you further ahead than where you were at the start before the storm,” said Schlossberg. “The administration wouldn’t want a hurricane to be a source of stimulus because the costs in losses and suffering outweigh the benefits.”