Home Sales Down Again

Posted on February 22, 2023 by grim

From CNBC:

U.S. home sales post 12th straight monthly decline; house price inflation cools

U.S. existing home sales dropped to the lowest level in more than 12 years in January, but the pace of decline slowed, raising cautious optimism that the housing market slump could be close to reaching a bottom.

The report from the National Association of Realtors on Tuesday also showed the smallest increase in annual house prices since 2012, which should help to improve affordability. It will, however, be a while before the housing market turns the corner.

Mortgage rates have resumed their upward trend after robust retail sales and labor market data as well as strong monthly inflation readings raised the prospect of the Federal Reserve maintaining its interest rate hiking campaign through summer.

Existing home sales fell 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units last month, the lowest level since October 2010, when the nation was grappling with the foreclosure crisis. That marked the 12th straight monthly decline in sales, the longest such stretch since 1999.

Sales fell in the Northeast and Midwest, but rose in the South and West. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home sales rising to a rate of 4.10 million units. Home resales, which account for the biggest share of U.S. housing sales, plunged 36.9% on a year-on-year basis in January.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 102 Comments

No recession for the rich

Posted on February 21, 2023 by grim

From Mansion Global:

Manhattan’s Luxury Real Estate Market Posts Best Week Since May 2022

Last week’s unseasonably warm temperatures may have helped warm up Manhattan’s luxury residential real estate market. 

There were 31 properties priced at $4 million or more sold in the week ending Sunday, six more than the previous week, according to Monday’s report from Olshan Realty. 

Last week, 21 condos went into contract, compared to seven co-ops, the report said. There were also three condops in the mix, but no townhouses changed hands. The total sales volume for the week was $272.22 million. 

“It was the largest weekly total since May 9-15, 2022, when 39 contracts were signed,” Donna Olshan, president of Olshan Realty, said in the report. “And for the second week in a row, a co-op took the top spot.”
…
As it happened, that No. 1 spot went to a 27th floor unit at Hampshire House on Central Park South asking $30 million, according to the report. The approximately 6,500-square-foot residence sold in less than two weeks, offering a great room with 18-foot ceilings and 15-foot arched doorways that open to a terrace with Central Park views. There are also seven bedrooms, five bathrooms and two powder rooms. Building amenities include laundry service, safety deposit boxes and a health club, plus a doorman, bell captain and concierge. 
…
Last week’s No. 2 deal was a downtown penthouse on Park Place that was priced at $19.75 million, down from its original ask of $21.75 million when it was listed in June, according to Olshan. The nearly 4,000-square-foot unit—with four bedrooms and four-and-a-half bathrooms—has a corner living room adjacent to a formal dining room and both with sweeping city views that reach from the Hudson River to the East River. It also boasts 12-foot ceilings and two 93-square-foot terraces.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, NYC | 113 Comments

Slow (not) down

Posted on February 19, 2023 by grim

From CNN:

Here are the US cities where home prices are actually falling

Home prices are going up across the country — in aggregate. Looking at individual markets, however, some are showing prices have fallen from a year ago.

Single-family median home prices increased 4% in the fourth quarter from a year ago to $378,700. Prices were strongest in the Northeast in the last quarter, up 5.3%; followed by the South, up 4.9%; the Midwest, up 4% and the West, up 2.6%, according to the National Association of Realtors.

But drill down to the market level and it’s clear that prices in some areas are declining from the prior year. The positive regional numbers mask that about 11% of individual housing markets tracked by NAR — 20 of 186 cities — experienced home price declines in the fourth quarter of last year. 

“A few markets may see double-digit price drops, especially some of the more expensive parts of the country, which have also seen weaker employment and higher instances of residents moving to other areas,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

Nearly all of the most expensive places to buy are in the West and half of the 10 most expensive cities are in California. Several of those places are seeing prices fall the most.
…

Among the most expensive cities that saw prices falling are Anaheim, California, with the median price of $1,132,000, down 1.6% from a year ago; Los Angeles, with the median price of $829,100, down 1.3%; and Boulder, Colorado, with the median price of $759,500, down 2.0%.

Other places with falling prices saw the big price increases during the frenzied home buying market of the past few years. They also tend to be appealing lifestyle destinations where people moved to as remote work provided more flexibility. These include Boise, Idaho, where prices fell 3.4% from a year ago and Austin, Texas, where prices are down 1.3%.

The good news for buyers looking for price relief is that the 4% median price hike in the fourth quarter is less than the 8.6% increase in the third quarter. In addition, the price increases are smaller, with far fewer markets experiencing double-digit price gains in the fourth quarter.

“A slowdown in home prices is underway and welcomed, particularly as the typical home price has risen 42% in the past three years,” said Yun, noting these cost increases have far surpassed wage increases and consumer price inflation since 2019.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, Price Reduced | 53 Comments

Do you have to pay it back?

Posted on February 17, 2023 by grim

From CNBC:

Consumer debt hits record $16.9 trillion as delinquencies also rise

Consumer debt hit a fresh record at the end of 2022 while delinquency rates rose for several types of loans, the New York Federal Reserve reported Thursday.

Debt across all categories totaled $16.9 trillion, up about $1.3 trillion from a year ago, as balances rose across all major categories.

Despite a decline in originations, mortgage balances increased to $11.9 trillion, up about $250 billion from the third quarter and about $1 trillion from a year ago. Originations for new home loans and refinancings fell to $498 billion, less than half where they were for Q4 in 2021 and a drop of about $135 billion from the third quarter.

Mortgage loans considered in “serious delinquency” of 90 days or more rose to a rate of 0.57%, still low but nearly double where they were from the year prior. Auto loan debt delinquencies rose 0.6 percentage point to 2.2%, while credit card debt jumped 0.8 percentage point to 4%.

“Credit card balances grew robustly in the fourth quarter, while mortgage and auto loan balances grew at a more moderate pace, reflecting activity consistent with pre-pandemic levels,” said Wilbert van der Klaauw, economic research advisor at the New York Fed.

“Although historically low unemployment has kept consumers’ financial footing generally strong, stubbornly high prices and climbing interest rates may be testing some borrowers’ ability to repay their debts,” he added.

The rise in balances came amid an aggressive rate-hiking campaign from the Fed as it battled inflation running near its highest levels in more than 41 years.

Posted in Economics, National Real Estate, Risky Lending | 53 Comments

Hottest Markets

Posted on February 15, 2023 by grim

From the US News & World Report:

The Hottest Housing Markets in the U.S.

Now that the demand for housing is showing renewed signs of life amid lower mortgage rates, declining inflation and a reduced risk of recession, it’s certainly an opportune time to analyze which markets are the hottest across the country. While the term “hottest” may no longer mean desperate buyers bidding thousands over asking prices and waiving inspections, it does mean returning to the basics of healthy demand, supply and financing options.

…

With regional Housing Market Index totals ranging up to 71.7 versus a national value of 64.4, the following six MSAs are the hottest housing markets ranked from first to fifth, with the third highest a tie between Austin and Durham:

  • Raleigh: 71.7
  • Denver: 67.5
  • (Tie) Austin: 67.3
  • (Tie) Durham: 67.3
  • Phoenix: 66.9
  • Richmond: 66.8

Besides benefitting from huge amounts of interest due to the combination of record-low mortgage rates and the desire for more living space during the COVID-19 pandemic, these markets have managed to hold onto their popularity even as workers have returned to offices and lending rates have trended up. Each MSA also offers the lure of big-city amenities without the disadvantages of the largest cities such as New York, Los Angeles or Chicago.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate | 173 Comments

Just the beginning?

Posted on February 13, 2023 by grim

From DSNews:

January Foreclosure Filings Up 36% YoY

Foreclosure volume continues in America, with year-end totals reaching 31,557, which includes default notices, scheduled auctions, or bank repossessions, a 36% increase compared to the previous year. The numbers reported in January 2022 represent a 2% increase compared to December 2021.

Nationwide, one in every 4,425 housing units had a foreclosure filing in January 2023.

“The uptick in overall foreclosure filings nationwide points toward a trend that may suggest more increased activity is on the horizon as we enter the new year,” said Rob Barber, the CEO at ATTOM, the real estate data conglomerate that produced the January 2023 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report. “While both completed foreclosures and foreclosure starts have stalled slightly over the past month, the annual increase in overall activity seen over the past 21 months may indicate a more substantial trend that could continue into 2023.”

States with the highest overall foreclosure rates were Delaware, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland.

Metro areas Fayetteville, North Carolina; Bakersfield, California; Cleveland; Detroit; and Laredo, Texas reported the most foreclosure activity.

Other than Cleveland and Detroit, among the metropolitan areas with a population greater than one million, January’s highest foreclosure activity included Chicago; Riverside, California; and Las Vegas.

Foreclosure completions declined in January for the first time since June 2021, the company reported.

Florida, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, and Texas reported the greatest annual decreases in complete foreclosures.

Only three states—New York, Pennsylvania, and California—bucked the trend with an increase in REOs.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate, Risky Lending | 129 Comments

You still can’t afford it

Posted on February 11, 2023 by grim

From Bankrate:

Home prices are down — but not enough to ease affordability

Home prices are still high. But they’re not rising quite as much.

Nearly 90 percent of the country’s metro areas saw single-family home prices rise in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the newly released Metropolitan Median Home Prices and Affordability Report for Q4 2022 from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The national median price for an existing single-family home now stands at $378,700. While that’s a 4 percent year-over-year increase, it actually represents quite a slowdown compared to the previous quarter’s 8.6 percent rise in home prices.

“A slowdown in home prices is underway and welcomed, particularly as the typical home price has risen 42 percent in the past three years,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, in a statement.

However, thanks to inflation, increased interest rates and other factors, the monthly mortgage payment on that median-priced home, with a 20 percent down payment, would now be $1,969, according to NAR — a jump of $720 (or 58 percent) over one year ago.

With median home prices rising just 4 percent year-over-year, but monthly mortgage payments rising a whopping 58 percent, it’s clear that the housing market is somewhat in flux.

Nearly all (166 out of 186) of metropolitan areas tracked by NAR saw home price gains in Q4 2022. But the amount of those gains is shrinking. Double-digit price increases occurred in just 18 percent of those areas — down from 46 percent in Q3.

As always in real estate, it’s a matter of location, location, location. The Northeast region had the highest year-over-year price appreciation in Q4 with 5.3 percent growth. The South saw 4.9 percent, the Midwest 4.0 percent and the West 2.6 percent.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 56 Comments

Who needs to buy?

Posted on February 10, 2023 by grim

From NJ1015:

Here’s where millionaires choose to rent in New Jersey

There are over 100 millionaires that rent in one city in New Jersey. If you’ve been paying any attention at all to real estate and building trends in this state, it’s not hard to guess that it’s Jersey City.

With a mass exodus out of NYC by many people following the pandemic and then fears of crime on the rise in the Big Apple, Jersey City looks pretty good.

Trendy restaurants and dazzling new apartment buildings along with lavishly renovated older buildings, make it very attractive if you can afford it.

Along with the close proximity to all the action of New York, you’ve got access to major transportation hubs and an up-and-coming exciting vibe in New Jersey’s second-largest city.

More than a hundred millionaires who choose to rent over homeownership currently live in Jersey City. The city is also the fifth hotspot for well-off renters in the country.

The largest group of millionaire renters are Millennials, followed by Gen X. Most wealthy renters work in management or industries like financial services, legislation, software development, and sales. The average home of a millionaire renter has 3 bedrooms. In Jersey City, it’s 4 bedrooms.

The high-income bracket of people earning more than $150K a year has also seen significant growth, with Jersey City having an increase of 75% in this income category after only five years. Most of our millionaires in New Jersey do own their own homes and are spread throughout the state in suburbs in sprawling mansions.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC | 96 Comments

Corelogic December Housing Market Data

Posted on February 9, 2023 by grim

From CoreLogic:

U.S. Home Price Insights – February 2023

December 2022 National Home Prices

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 6.9% in December 2022 compared with December 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.4% in December 2022 compared with November 2022 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).

The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will decrease on a month-over-month basis by 0.2% from December 2022 to January 2023 and on a year-over-year basis by 3% from December 2022 to December 2023.

The effect of rising mortgage rates on housing demand in 2022 became even more evident in December, with annual home price growth dipping to 6.9%, down from a series high of 20% appreciation in April. Only nine states registered double-digit year-over-year price increases in December, compared with 48 that posted double-digit gains in April.

While the national unemployment rate remained at a low 3.5% in December, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,  layoffs may be affecting housing demand in some expensive metro areas, particularly those that rely heavily on the tech industry. As noted in the latest US CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index, San Francisco and Seattle posted significant home price deceleration in November. Idaho was the only state to register an annual home price loss in December (-1%), compared with its 17% gain recorded in April 2022. Nevertheless, the pandemic-induced migration to suburban, exurban and rural areas may be winding down, as part of the U.S. workforce gradually returns to offices.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Housing Recovery, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 87 Comments

Sorry buyers…

Posted on February 8, 2023 by grim

From Bloomberg:

Buyers Are Flocking to NYC’s Suburbs. Too Bad There Aren’t Many Homes to Sell.

In the midst of the worst US housing slump in a decade, a wave of finance and tech layoffs and drumbeats of a potential recession, open houses in affluent New York suburbs are packed. 

Offers come in fast — sometimes for hundreds of thousands over asking. 

A typical scene played out on a cloudy Sunday last month in Scarsdale, a suburb about 20 miles (32 kilometers) north of Manhattan known for its bucolic setting and high-rated schools. At the tail end of an open house, a dozen people were still wandering in and around a 1926 Tudor-style house listed for about $1.93 million.

An older couple took video on their iPhone for their offspring too busy to attend, while a younger man walked around with his infant in a chest carrier. The house was in need of some touch-ups. Somebody whispered that the hardwood floors were scratched, another said that the refrigerator looked warped, and a pair of kitchen cabinet doors was missing. It hardly mattered. 

With few other homes on the market, the 3,400-square-foot (316-square-meter) house attracted almost 100 groups of visitors, and netted six bids. It went under contract five days after the open house for $2.28 million.

“Demand is very high in all price ranges,” said Laura Miller, the listing agent with Houlihan Lawrence. “There are tons of buyers and not enough inventory.”
…
In New York, the economy remains strong despite layoffs at employers such as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google. Three-day hybrid work policies, becoming standard in some industries, mean greater demand for homes with more space, but within a commutable distance.

Many sellers may be waiting until March to put homes on the market but the for-sale signs aren’t coming out yet. New listings in January so far have dropped 5% in the US, according to Realtor.com. The New York area has seen even deeper slides, with new inventory down more than 40% in Manhattan and Brooklyn, the most in the country, and more than 20% in Westchester and Bergen counties. 

“We are begging people to sell right now,” said Arlene Gonnella, an agent at Weichert Realtors in Short Hills, one of New Jersey’s most expensive areas. “We are trying to tempt them with buyers who are ready, willing and able to pay up.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC | 103 Comments

30yr fixed dips below 6%

Posted on February 5, 2023 by grim

From Insider:

Mortgage rates are falling back near 6%, reopening the housing market for 3 million home buyers, according to Freddie Mac

Mortgage rates are falling back near 6%, and that could help reopen the housing market to about 3 million buyers who were priced, according to Freddie Mac.

The government-sponsored enterprise said that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage inched lower to 6.09% on Thursday, notching its fourth-straight week of declines. That’s the lowest rates have been since peaking at over 7% in November of last year, Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater said in a statement.

“This one percentage point reduction in rates can allow as many as three million more mortgage-ready consumers to qualify and afford a $400,000 loan, which is the median home price,” Khater added.

Mortgage rates skyrocketed over the course of 2022, influenced by the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes aimed at taking some heat out of the economy.

From the MPA:

US mortgage rates fall from November peak following Fed rate hike

Long-term US mortgage rates slipped following the Federal Reserve’s slowdown in its monetary policy tightening.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a low of 6.09% this week, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. That’s down from 6.13% a week ago and nearly a full point drop from November’s peak of over 7%, providing a boost for mortgage-ready homebuyers.

“According to Freddie Mac research, this one percentage point reduction in rates can allow as many as three million more mortgage-ready consumers to qualify and afford a $400,000 loan, which is the median home price,” Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater said.

From CNBC:

Mortgage rates drop to the 5% range for the first time since September

The average rate on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage has fallen to 5.99%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

The housing market hasn’t seen the rate with a five handle since a brief blip in early September. Before that, it was in early August.

The rate started this week at 6.21% and fell sharply Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said inflation “has eased somewhat but remains elevated,” which was a shift from previous language.

That sent bond yields lower, and mortgage rates loosely follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury.

“Measured steps can continue as long as the economic and inflation data is there to support them. This means rates can make progress down into the 5′s but are unlikely to stampede quickly into the 4′s,” said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily. “I’m not saying that won’t happen–just that it would take a bit more time than some of the rate rallies we remember from the past.”

Posted in Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 132 Comments

Jobs Day!

Posted on February 3, 2023 by grim

From the NYT:

The government will provide its latest snapshot of the labor market on Friday, and economists expect it to show that January was another month of solid job growth.

Forecasters surveyed by MarketWatch expect the Labor Department to show that U.S. employers added 187,000 jobs last month, a moderate slowdown from December.

But the hiring number probably won’t tell the whole story. Economists and policymakers will also be watching the unemployment rate, labor force participation and hourly earnings. An increase in the ranks of those available to work could alleviate the tightness in the labor market that is driving up wages and contributing to inflation.

“The question is, will we continue to see a Goldilocks labor market?” said Betsey Stevenson, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan. “The Goldilocks labor market will be one where we continue to grow a little bit and wage pressure seems to subside a bit.”

Taken together, the numbers in the January report could help indicate the impact of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to cool the economy and tame rapid inflation. So far, the Fed’s rate increases appear to be gently constraining the labor market with limited pain for workers. But as high interest rates filter through the economy more deeply, a big question is whether policymakers can achieve their goals without causing significant job losses.

Posted in Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 149 Comments

Dippitty dip dip

Posted on February 2, 2023 by grim

From Fortune:

From US News and World Report:

Home Prices Continue to Come Down as Higher Mortgage Rates Bite

Home prices continued their downward slide in November, though they remain up year over year, according to the CoreLogic Case-Shiller monthly index released on Tuesday.

Nationally, prices fell 0.6% in November, but are up 7.7% annually, following October’s 9.2% increase.

Miami, Tampa and Atlanta led the cities posting the largest increases, at 18.4%, 16.9% and 12.4%, respectively.

“November 2022 marked the fifth consecutive month of declining home prices in the U.S.,” said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI. “As the Federal Reserve moves interest rates higher, mortgage financing continues to be a headwind for home prices. “Economic weakness, including the possibility of a recession, would also constrain potential buyers. Given these prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to weaken.”

The data reflect prices before mortgage rates topped 7% and various markets continue to see declines in the rate of appreciation.

“The latest S&P Case-Shiller report provides evidence of the slowing housing market during the fall, with home prices continuing to decelerate in October,” Lisa Sturtevant, Bright MLS chief economist, said before the release. “However, the data released today do not account for the full impact of rising mortgage rates, which were above 7% in November.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 111 Comments

Fed Day!

Posted on February 1, 2023 by grim

From Reuters:

Fed expected to deliver small rate hike but keep anti-inflation tilt

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise its target interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, setting aside the rapid hikes used last year to curb a surge in inflation in favor of a more stepwise hunt for a stopping point.

The expected increase would set the U.S. central bank’s benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.50%-4.75% range, the highest since November 2007, when the economy was on the eve of what would prove to be a long and deep recession.

Policymakers hope to avoid that sort of outcome this time, and economic data since their last policy meeting in December generally has moved in the right direction: Inflation is slowing under the impact of higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions, while the economy continues to grow and create jobs.

The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee is due to release its policy statement at 2 p.m. EST (1900 GMT). Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to hold a news conference half an hour later to elaborate on the decision.

Posted in Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 145 Comments

Survivorship bias? Literally.

Posted on January 31, 2023 by grim

From the NY Post:

Single women are outpacing men in homeownership

All the single ladies … are buying property. 

Indeed, a recent study found that single women are outpacing single men in homeownership. 

This new trend has come as a shock to many — and is bound to have long-term effects on the financial market and generations to come. 

Single women own roughly 10.7 million homes in America, compared to 8.1 million owned by single men, according to a recent analysis from LendingTree that looked at 2021 census data. 

The surprising development has spread nearly all across the country, with single women being more likely to own a home in 48 of 50 states — all but North and South Dakota.

Women dominate ownership at the highest rates in southern states like Louisiana, Alabama and South Carolina, which typically have cheaper home prices. 

Meanwhile, Florida, Delaware and Maryland reported the widest gender gap among single homeowners. The Sunshine State has a 4.55% gap equating to 262,000 more single women owning homes than men. 

North Dakota and South Dakota, the sole states where single men own more homes than single women, are known to be homes to job markets saturated with male-dominated professions, such as oil rigging and construction.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate | 42 Comments