Low tax counties see cuts to school aid

From NJ1015:

6 NJ counties may see property taxes rise due to school aid cuts

When Gov. Murphy announces a victory, you always have to look underneath for the real story. That’s because in a tax and spend administration like Murphy’s, any time you take money away from somebody in New Jersey, the taxpayers usually have to make up the difference.

That’s why you should read any headline in NJ with the words “budget cuts” with skepticism. Democrats generally don’t save us any money when they make “cuts.” They just ask us to pay the difference.

This time Gov. Murphy is touting the success of the almost $10 billion of direct education funding going to schools for the 2022–23 school year.

I’m one of those people that is thrilled anytime school budgets are cut. It’s not that I don’t like kids or that I don’t value their educations, but I think schools cost too much to run here in the state. And most of it is wasted on stuff that schools do not need. (The whole public school system is broken, but that’s a different topic about which I will rant another time)

Let’s not even discuss the fact that we pour so much into over-bloated administration, more unnecessary programs and overall district waste that we really wouldn’t need a dime more for schools if we just budgeted properly and got rid of the dead weight.

But, even assuming that you would be happy about the direct aid, and thought it was good news, you wouldn’t if you lived in one of the six counties that are getting less money this year.

Those are SussexOceanMonmouthHudsonCumberland and Hunterdon.

Let me reiterate. It’s not that these counties really need the budget increase. As I stated before, no district in New Jersey really does. If we got rid of 43 vice principals, and unnecessary administrative positions, and really streamlined the school budget, we would do very well with the thousands—if not tens of thousands—of dollars we’re already spending to educate EACH PUPIL here in the state.

But, since no one is willing to cut staff or consolidate or make any changes at ALL, really, to our public school system, those counties are going to have to make up for the money that they’re no longer getting. And guess where that money is probably going to have to come from? If you said the taxpayer, you’re probably right.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 137 Comments

Go ahead, quit.

From CNBC:

4.3 million people quit their jobs in January as the Great Resignation shows no sign of slowing down

The pandemic-era phenomenon known as the Great Resignation remained a hallmark of the labor market in early 2022, according to federal data issued Wednesday.

Nearly 4.3 million people quit their jobs in January, a slight monthly decline but still near the record level set in November, the U.S. Department of Labor said. The elevated level in early 2022 comes off a year in which almost 48 million people quit their jobs, an annual record.

“The Great Resignation is still in full swing, even if quits are moderating somewhat,” Daniel Zhao, a senior economist at career site Glassdoor, said in a tweet.

Job resignations are still up 23% above prepandemic levels, he said.

The data suggests people aren’t quitting their jobs to exit the labor market and sit on the sidelines, economists said. Instead, the high level of resignation indicates a strong job market for workers with ample opportunities, they said.

There were almost 11.3 million job openings in January, just shy of December’s record, according to the Labor Department.

The high labor demand is pushing employers to pay higher wages as they compete to attract talent, and that higher pay is luring workers away from their current jobs.

Posted in Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 220 Comments

No limit to home prices?

From Reuters:

U.S. house prices to rise another 10% this year

U.S. house prices are set to climb in double digits this year even as the Federal Reserve embarks on its expected series of interest rate hikes, according to a Reuters poll of property analysts who forecast a sellers’ market for another two years.

Record low interest rates and a scarcity of homes to buy, combined with unexpectedly explosive demand during the pandemic, sent the average house price up 17% last year, the strongest annual rise in at least two decades.

That has stretched affordability ever further, particularly for aspiring new homebuyers, a common theme across most developed economies as the global economy emerges from the worst of COVID-19 and central banks raise interest rates.

The Feb. 8-28 poll of 33 property analysts suggested U.S. house prices would rise 10.3% this year. That was an upgrade from 8.0% in the December poll, suggesting underlying demand for housing is still strong and housing supply is still tight.

Prices are forecast to rise 5.0% next year and 4.1% in 2024, marginal upgrades compared with 4.0% and 3.7% in the last poll.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 171 Comments

To the moon

From Fortune:

What home prices will look like in 2023, according to Fannie Mae

Homebuyers just got more bad news: In January, 70% of homes for sale ended up in a bidding war. That’s the highest rate on record. Simply put: So far, 2022 hasn’t delivered any relief for home shoppers. 

Heading into 2022, there was a broad consensus in the real estate industry that home price growth would decelerate significantly this year. But just over two months into the new year, some of those same firms are walking back their 2022 forecasts. Zillow was forecasting that home price growth—which was up 18.8% between December 2020 and December 2021would decelerate to 11% growth this year. Then last month, Zillow revised that rate up to 17.3%.

Zillow isn’t alone: Fannie Mae just became the latest real estate firm to shift up its 2022 forecast. Last year, Fannie Mae predicted that the median existing home price would climb 7.9% this year. Now, Fannie Mae says the median existing home price in 2022 will jump from $355,000 to $384,000. That would come out to an 11.2% year-over-year price jump.

If home prices do rise another 11.2%, it would mark a deceleration from the current growth rate. However, that would hardly represent relief for home shoppers. After all, the typical raise that corporate America plans to dole out this year is only 3.9%. But Fannie Mae does still think relief will come, it just won’t happen until 2023. Next year, Fannie Mae projects home prices will rise 4.2%—with the median existing home price jumping to $395,000.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 175 Comments

Median list price hits record high

From the Star Ledger:

How much does it cost to own a home in the U.S.?

Home prices across the United States have hit an all-time high, meaning more Americans are losing their buying power and fewer Americans are able to find affordable homes.

The median price of a home in the U.S. skyrocketed to a record $392,000 in February, according to a report from Realtor.com.

Housing prices grew at an “unusually fast” pace of 12.9%, according to the report, which also forecasted this year’s homebuying season in the spring will be very competitive.

In New Jersey, there are at least 34 cities where the average home price exceeds $1 million

“February’s new record high for the median listing price places housing affordability front and center for this year’s real estate markets, especially as we gear up for the spring season,” Realtor.com chief Danielle Hale told Insider.

Market trends suggest the increase in home prices could continue through the spring, which is traditionally the hottest buying season of the year.

Posted in National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 189 Comments

Cheaper to live in NJ? Yeah, right.

From the Star Ledger:

Murphy unveils plan for big property tax rebates to nearly 2M N.J. households

Gov. Phil Murphy announced Thursday his administration will extend property tax relief to about 1.8 million New Jersey households by replacing the state’s Homestead Benefit program.

The tax relief initiative is part of the governor’s state budget proposal he is set to unveil during a speech at the Statehouse in Trenton on Tuesday.

Under the new program, New Jersey homeowners making up to $250,000 would be eligible to receive an average $700 rebate in the first year, and renters making up to $100,000 would be eligible for a rebate up to $250 to help offset the cost of rent increases due to property taxes.

“We want this to mean lasting relief that keeps families in their homes,” Murphy said while announcing the plans during an event at Fair Lawn’s municipal building.

The Democratic governor stressed this would apply to about 1.15 million homeowners and 600,000 renters. Rebates for homeowners would appear as a credit on property tax bills, and payments to renters would be made by check or direct deposit.

“We don’t want property taxes to force families out of great communities like this,” Murphy said of Fair Lawn, a Bergen County suburb where the average property tax bill hit $11,527 in 2021.

Murphy said his administration plans to ramp up the program over a three-year period, and the state investment would swell to $1.5 billion annually, bringing the average rebate per eligible household to $1,150 by 2025.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 100 Comments

Ukraine Day 7

Another message from Alex in Kyiv (who is a friend from the international distilling community btw):

Some news for today, the 7th day of the war.

We have our pilot heroes. One of them was nicknamed “The Ghost of Kyiv”. He was hit. But the pilot escaped, returned to the base, received a new plane and already destroyed 21 Russian planes on it!
Glory to the Hero! To all heroes!
He flies a MiG-29 Fulcrum
(After the collapse of the USSR, Soviet aircraft also remained in Ukraine, but they were heavily modernized by our engineers and scientists.)

The total combat losses of the Russians from 24.02 to 03.03 tentatively amounted to:
personnel – about 9,000 people (dead and wounded),
tanks – 217 units,
BBM – 900 units,
artillery systems – 90,
MLRS – 42,
air defense systems – 11,
aircraft – 30 units (information to be confirmed),
helicopters – 31 units (information is being specified);
automotive equipment – 374,
light speedboats – 2 units,
tanks with PPM – 60,
UAV operational-tactical level – 3,
The data is being specified. Counting is complicated by the high intensity of hostilities.

Circus: in Energodar, the invaders asked to be let into the city and allowed to be photographed against the background of the nuclear power plant for reports to their military leadership.

In Energodar, Zaporozhye region,  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enerhodar

people did not let the invaders into the city near the nuclear power plant. Ordinary people became a wall against tanks (see photo).


The Russians turned to the station management with a request to give them the opportunity to take a photo for the report against the backdrop of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant. The invaders come out and try to negotiate with the leadership of the city of Energodar.
“They say that it is enough for them to enter the city at least a little, take a picture against the backdrop of the nuclear power plant and send a report to the management,” Kotin said.

Now it becomes clear why the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is talking about the captured strategic facilities and cities.

Some information for now:

1) Ukrainian troops went on the counter-offensive and liberates the cities captured by the Russians near Kiev, including the city of Makarov, Bucha (Kyiv region). Kharkov, the environs of Kharkov – the counter offensive of the Ukrainian army. the city of Gorlovka is liberated from the Russian invaders.
In addition, another Russian convoy burned down in the village of Moskovsky Bobrik, Sumy region, not far from the Poltava region.

2) Ukrainian intelligence received information that part of the Russian “grad” missile systems located on the border with Russia were deployed towards the nearest Russian villages. This is done in order to bombard their cities (Russian cities with Russian weapons) in order to create a “TV picture” that Ukraine is attacking peaceful Russian villages on the border.
I have no words…
Even the Nazis did not commit such crimes in 1941-1945!

3) I am in Kyiv now, we are already used to constant explosions in the sky … This is our air defense system (and missile defense). We asked NATO to “close the sky”! but NATO is afraid of the Russians and does not help in this matter. We need air defense systems that can intercept missiles. We have our own developments, but they are few in comparison with the number of Russian Typhoon and Iskander installations. We hold on, many missiles manage to intercept in the sky.
Kyiv is an impregnable fortress now.

4) We are fighting in such a way that the invaders were forced to change their tactics. Russian missile and bomb strikes on Ukrainian cities is an admission that Russia has not been able to do anything significant militarily. All lines of our defense have been preserved, and the enemy is not successful in any of the strategic directions. They (the Russian military) are suppressed, they are doomed.

5) Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba called on partners to close the airspace over Ukraine, otherwise the blood of Ukrainians killed by Russia will also be on their hands.
Kuleba said this on the joint air of Ukrainian TV channels “We are strong together”, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

“We say very clearly and calmly to our partners in NATO that you can think as much as you like how you could avoid a direct confrontation with Russia, but if you do not help us stop it now, then a direct confrontation will be inevitable, because you will be next.” Kuleba said.

In this context, he noted that those who believe that Russia will not dare to attack NATO countries should remember that they also did not believe in the Kremlin’s plans to start a direct war with Ukraine.

“And everyone was wrong. Therefore, we need to act right now,” the head of Ukrainian diplomacy stressed.

He emphasized that the topic of closing the sky over Ukraine is extremely relevant, and there are different scenarios. For example, it is possible to close not all airspace, but part of it, it is possible not to close the sky, but to ensure the supply of combat aircraft and anti-aircraft defense systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

“All scenarios are currently in the works. But everyone should understand, and we clearly say this to our partners: “We are grateful to you for everything you have done… But now there is a concrete threat that our citizens will continue to be killed from the air… Therefore, if you do not take radical steps to strengthen the air defense defense of Ukraine, then the blood of our dead citizens will be on your hands. Your restraint and your unwillingness to take the next steps – all this gives Russia the opportunity to continue to commit murders with impunity,” the Foreign Minister stressed.

Pray for us if you believe in God.
Help us in any way you can.

If earlier I wrote that we want to win, today I can write, and it’s true that we are winning!
We Win on the battlefield the most powerful (by number) army in the world! (Army of Russia).
We won’t give up!

Posted in General | 105 Comments

From a friend in Kyiv

God Speed Alex!

————–

Thanks for your support!

We now have air raid sirens, but we are already used to this sound 🙂

Bucha, Kyiv Oblast last night

This is a “wild horde” … like Batu Khan in 1200 in Ukrainian history.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batu_Khan

We won’t give up.

We are very evil… But our people have always been not only brave but also pragmatic. A little something interesting for you.

https://fb.watch/btBEP5Zi_z/
Watch this video. This is one of the captured “infantry fighting vehicles” on a tracked chassis.

There is rust inside the cab, the driver’s seat was made by someone on their own, from pieces of old wooden boards. Some kind of rag is put on the seat 🙂

This is the same “invincible Russian army” with which Putin scares the whole world … 🙂 rusty old iron (197X-198X years of release).

The main problem is that there are a lot of them. This is a “mad horde” that goes to the slaughter in Ukraine. Thank you for the Javelins.

We must grind this whole horde into mincemeat. We’ll get the job done.

so farmers burn Russian tanks:
https://fb.watch/btCjSKcbwv/

And some laughter
https://fb.watch/btCDgGPHKz/
in this video, farmers have captured an anti-aircraft missile launcher and are taking it to their hangar to hide it :)

This unit is made of aluminum, which is very expensive. Farmers disassemble Russian equipment for metal in order to earn money later on scrap metal.

https://fb.watch/btCMexT9qV/
This is a video of the “invincible air defense complex Pantsir”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir_missile_system
irony of fate – it is destroyed by a missile from Bayraktar (an unmanned aircraft manufactured in Turkey).

Now I am in Kyiv. Outside the window I hear explosions.

Kyiv is now an unassailable fortress.

Every street, every house will be a grave for the Russian invaders. We will win!

Our victory will be 100%! You have no idea how we feel here! Everyone is ready to tear the occupiers with their teeth.

Last night a lot of weapons came up to us, from Poland and Estonia. Now we have a lot of javelins and stuff. We won’t give up!

Pray for us if you believe in God.

Posted in General | 171 Comments

Lowball! $68 million dollar edition

From ROINJ:

State’s highest-price house, a mansion in Alpine, finally sells (for $27.5 million) – Slideshow

Imagine buying a house for $27.5 million – the highest price paid for a house in New Jersey in years, if not decades – and feeling like you got a good deal.

If the property was the former Frick family estate – a grand 33,000-square-foot, 12-bedroom, 19-bathroom residence on 12 acres with I-can’t-believe-it-comes-with-all-these amenities – you may just have done so.

At least, that’s the impression of the undisclosed buyer, who picked up a property in Alpine that is tucked into one of the country’s wealthiest zip codes.

The sale price was below the $32.9 million it recently was asking, and far below the $68 million it was listed for when it first went on the market – in 2010. That’s right, it took more than a decade to sell an estate owned by Kamson Corporation CEO Richard Kurtz, who purchased the property for $58 million in 2006.

Posted in General | 210 Comments

Time to serve

From NJ1015:

Get back to work! NJ lawmakers call for all Motor Vehicle offices to reopen

Lawmakers are trying to force the Motor Vehicle Commission to fully reopen.

State Sen. Kristin Corrado, R-Passaic, said the reason for her proposed legislation is out of frustration on her part and on the part of her constituents.

She said there is no excuse for the government not to be open and not to be providing a full range of services two years after the COVID-19 pandemic began.

“You can go to the mall, you can go to a restaurant, you can shop at any store up and down the entire state of New Jersey, you can go to a football game, you can go to a concert, but you can’t go to Motor Vehicles in a timely fashion to get all your services done and you certainly can’t go to the Department of Labor to get your unemployment resolved,” Corrado said.

“Government serves the people. We pay their salaries. There is simply no excuse for them not to be back at work in-person full services throughout the state. As the governor likes to say, period full stop,” Corrado said.

Posted in Economics, Employment, Politics | 223 Comments

Isn’t this the American Dream?

From Yahoo Finance:

New Jersey’s American Dream Megamall Is Once Again Sinking in Debt

Since its groundbreaking nearly two decades ago, the megamall built in New Jersey’s Meadowlands has done little except hemorrhage cash. Now, less than two years after its much-delayed opening, the complex known as American Dream is threatening to dash the lofty ambitions of yet another developer.

The Ghermezian family, which runs some of the biggest and most successful malls in North America, can’t keep up with the bills on the shopping and entertainment megaplex, which helped drive its original developer to the brink of bankruptcy and later was seized by lenders from the team that came next.

Revenue from the stores has been so scarce amid the surging pandemic that the Ghermezians have hired legal and financial advisers to help them ease the crushing $3 billion debt load, and perhaps retain some role in running the project, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The family members aren’t the only ones who stand to lose big money. Lenders including JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Soros Fund Management and Starwood Property Trust Inc. could face losses on $1.7 billion in construction loans. About $1.1 billion of municipal debt is also backing the project.

“It’s been like watching a train wreck that goes on forever,” said Neil Shapiro, a New York real estate attorney and senior partner at Herrick Feinstein. “There aren’t a lot of projects that lose at least $3 billion that we’re still talking about as projects,” said Shapiro, who’s not involved with the mall.

Outwardly, the 3-million-square-foot shopping and entertainment complex on about 90 acres in New Jersey’s Meadowlands is almost fully opened, charging weekend crowds as much as $115 for day passes to the DreamWorks Water Park and $80 for its Big Snow indoor ski slope. Luxury stores including Hermès, Tiffany & Co. and Dolce & Gabbana are coming in September.

But it all may be too little, too late for the Ghermezians and their company, Triple Five Group. They’ve hired financial adviser Houlihan Lokey Inc. and the law firm of Weil Gotshal & Manges to represent them in restructuring talks, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing the private negotiations. This month, American Dream dipped into reserves to make a $9.3 million municipal bond payment.

Posted in Economics, Employment, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate, Risky Lending | 326 Comments

Welcome Back

From CNN:

Home prices skyrocketed last year. Two regions saw the biggest increases

Home prices rose 18.8% in 2021, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, the biggest increase in 34 years of data and substantially ahead of 2020’s 10.4% gain.

All regions saw price gains last year, but increases were strongest in the South and the Southeast, each of which were up over 25%.

Phoenix, Tampa and Miami reported the highest annual gains among the 20 cities in the index in December. Phoenix led the way for the 31st consecutive month with prices 32.5% higher than the year before. It was followed by Tampa with a 29.4% increase, and Miami, with a 27.3% increase.

“We continue to see very strong growth at the city level,” said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “All 20 cities saw price increases in 2021, and prices in all 20 are at their all-time highs.”

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 218 Comments

Sorry New York

From Fox News:

Wall Street’s hybrid work model likely to squeeze New York’s budget

Wall Street’s hybrid work week is here to stay and the economic implications on New York City and New York State’s budgets could prove to be devastating.

Some of Wall Street’s top financial firms are preparing for the implementation of a more permanent hybrid work week in the post-COVID era, where many employees can spend a couple of days working from home depending on the job, FOX Business has learned.

The rollout comes as New York City Mayor Adams calls for workers to get back to the office immediately because continued remote work is ultimately taking much-needed business away from the city.

But with remote work now fully embraced by the big banks, tax revenues in the city could fall dramatically; for the foreseeable future well paid brokers, bankers and salesmen will spend more time — and their disposable income — where they live in New Jersey, Connecticut and Westchester County, budget analysts concede.

If employees are only coming in a couple of days a week, renting a big office space in Manhattan doesn’t make much sense. In fact, investment management firm State Street recently announced it plans to close its two New York offices in order to transition to a hybrid work model.

“When you’re collecting a total of $5 billion a year in taxes from NJ and CT residents, losing even a small percentage to firms following State Street’s lead could ding (city and state budgets) by a few hundred million dollars,” said E.J. McMahon, Adjunct Fellow at the Manhattan Institute.

Morgan Stanley is taking a much softer approach than it did last summer when CEO James Gorman demanded New York employees get back to the office if they wanted to continue getting paid a New York salary.

JPMorgan is also preparing for more of its bankers to engage in a hybrid workweek as the summer approaches. An internal memo sent out last Friday said many JPMorgan employees were back in the office but did not specify whether that was on a full-time basis.

Wells Fargo says it’s encouraging employees to return to the office in mid-March and American Express will start inviting employees back to its Manhattan office March 1st under a hybrid work-from-home model.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 82 Comments

NJ’s No-Stop Centers

From NJ1015:

NJ lawmakers want to force Murphy administration to open unemployment offices

Lawmakers will be introducing legislation to force the Murphy administration to open the Department of Labor’s One-Stop Career Center offices as soon as March 1 to resolve outstanding unemployment claims.

The move comes after New Jersey 101.5 news reports this week about how thousands of state residents are still in limbo, unable to resolve their claims and get help in person.

State Sen. Michael Testa and Assemblymen Antwan McClellen and Erik Simonsen, all Republicans representing South Jersey’s 1st Legislative District, released a statement Friday afternoon saying unemployment offices and One-Stops have been closed for more than 700 days.

“The constant failures have left many filers waiting months to receive any benefits while Labor Department employees are working from home, still receiving a check,” they said.

The lawmakers said the legislation would require the Department of Labor to reopen their facilities for in-person appointments with “long-suffering constituents who cannot access their unemployment benefits via the NJDOL’s failing system or face financial consequences for the failure to serve the people of New Jersey.”

Posted in Economics, Employment, Politics | 62 Comments

Why does NJ think it’s even part of the conversation?

From NJBIZ:

NJ rolls out roadmap for 21st century ‘future of work’

State officials on Feb. 17 published a long-awaited slate of recommendations laying out how the New Jersey workforce of the 21st century needs to change in the decades to come.

The 179-page report, which was first ordered by the Murphy administration in 2019 before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, delves into “how technological advancements will shape the future of New Jersey’s economy and workforce.”

Future of work has been something that the tech industry has been tinkering with for years, especially following a global pandemic that gave enough people a taste of telecommuting arrangements, which has fostered resistance from many to the return to a 40-hour, in-office workweek.

“In a rapidly changing economy directly impacted by the development of new technology, inequality, and the challenges of the climate crisis, we have an important and urgent role to play in equipping our workers to be successful,” Gov. Phil Murphy said in the Thursday announcement.

“Creating opportunities for new industries, well-paid work, and paths for career growth will be essential to our economy and to easing the fear and anxiety caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had an enormous impact on the state labor market and work environment,” he continued in a message accompanying the report.

The recommendations range from state financing for continuing education and training programs for low-income workers, to education workers’ rights and employee misclassification laws; expanded access to low and no-cost higher education tuition assistance programs; and upgrades to the state’s pandemic-ravaged, beleaguered unemployment system.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 135 Comments