Welcome to the party

Posted on April 10, 2023 by grim

From Axios:

Millennial homeowners outnumber renters for the first time

Millennial homeowners outnumbered millennial renters for the first time last year, despite creeping interest rates and a tight real estate market.

Driving the news: Nearly 52% of the first generation to grow up in the Internet age ​​— people born from 1981 to 1996 — were homeowners in 2022, making the largest ownership gains of any generation in the last five years, according to a new RentCafe report.

By the numbers: The number of millennial homeowners increased by 7.1 million between 2017 and 2022 to 18.2 million, a 64% increase.

  • There are still 17.2 million millennial renters, which is still considered the dominant renter generation, RentCafe found.
  • The average millennial bought their first home at 34, slightly older than the average age of past generations, when boomers took the keys at 33 and Gen X at 32.

Yes, but: Older generations still own more homes than millennials.

  • Baby boomers, who were born 1946 to 1964, own about 32.1 million homes as of 2022, but lost 354,000 homeowners in the last five years.
  • Gen X, born from 1965 to 1980, own 24.4 million homes, an increase of 1.9 million.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate | 38 Comments

Don’t worry about commercial real estate…

Posted on April 9, 2023 by grim

From Insider:

Most of Wall Street is panicking about commercial real estate – but Goldman Sachs says there’s little chance it triggers a financial crisis

It seems like there are three words on the lips of every investor now that panic around the US’s regional banking sector is starting to die down: commercial real estate.

Big names ranging from Bill Ackman and Elon Musk to Bank of America and JPMorgan have predicted that the troubled sector will be where the next cracks appear in the US financial system – but Goldman Sachs bucked that trend this week.

“The risk of a vicious circle of large leveraged losses and undercapitalized balance sheets that would pose a threat to financial stability is still limited,” strategists Lotfi Karoui and Vinay Viswanathan said in a research note published Monday.

Goldman Sachs’ view clashes with analysts such as Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett, who said in a research note last week that commercial real estate would likely be the “next shoe to drop as lending standards… tighten further.”

Hartnett believes that a wave of upcoming refinancings of commercial real estate loans at much higher interest rates than in the past could spark a credit crunch in the sector, sending stocks spiraling and the economy into a recession.
…
While Karoui and Viswanathan are anticipating massive issues in the office sector – an area that other strategists have expressed concern about as well – they believe that apartments, manufacturing plants, warehouses, and other types of commercial real estate are better-capitalized and won’t suffer a huge crash.

“We expect office loan delinquencies to materially increase, but think this is unlikely to lead to systemic risk given healthier fundamentals in other commercial real estate subsectors,” the Goldman Sachs strategists said.

The turmoil will likely be contained to office loan delinquencies “given healthier fundamentals in other commercial real estate sub-sectors such as apartment and industrial properties, as well as in other parts of credit markets,” Karoui and Viswanathan added.

Posted in Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate, Risky Lending | 24 Comments

Reinstate Pearson and Jones

Posted on April 8, 2023 by grim

From CSPAN:

Posted in Politics | 50 Comments

Heating up!

Posted on April 7, 2023 by grim

From CNN:

Mortgage rates fall for the fourth week in a row

Homebuyers benefited from another week of falling mortgage rates, with the average rate dropping for the fourth week in a row, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.28% in the week ending April 6, down from 6.32% the week before. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate was 4.72%.

“Mortgage rates continue to trend down entering the traditional spring homebuying season,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “Unfortunately, those in the market to buy are facing a number of challenges, not the least of which is the low inventory of homes for sale, especially for aspiring first-time homebuyers.”

The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. The survey includes only borrowers who put 20% down and have excellent credit.

After hitting a 2022 high of 7.08% in November, rates started 2023 trending down. However, they climbed again in February, after robust economic data suggested the Federal Reserve was not done in its battle to cool the US economy and would likely continue hiking its benchmark lending rate.

The Fed raised interest rates by a quarter point at its most recent policymaking meeting, in an effort to continue to fight stubbornly high inflation while taking into account the risks to financial stability brought about by recent turmoil in the banking sector.

Posted in Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 59 Comments

Jersey shore is underwater, but you still can’t get a good deal

Posted on April 6, 2023 by grim

From CNBC:

A hidden time bomb? A ‘Big Short’ investor sees financial disaster brewing in housing markets

More than a decade after a U.S. mortgage meltdown threatened to destroy the international financial system, a “Big Short” investor once again sees financial disaster brewing in the real estate market.

Dave Burt, CEO of investment research firm DeltaTerra Capital which aims to help clients manage climate risk, was one of the few skeptics who recognized the housing market was on the brink of collapse in 2007.

He helped two of the protagonists of Michael Lewis’ best-selling book “The Big Short” bet against the mortgage market in the lead-up to the 2008 global financial crash. As it turned out, they were right and made billions.

Now, Burt believes an overlooked climate risk could see history repeating itself.

“I’m always on the lookout for these big systemic issues and there’s a few of reasons for that,” Burt told CNBC via videoconference.

“Professionally, if something is mispriced, then as an investor, which has been my job for most of my career, your main opportunity to add value is to identify something that is either too cheap to purchase for your clients or something that it is too expensive to sell for your client,” he said.

“From a personal perspective, and this is partly based on that professional perspective, I’ve seen when that goes wrong, how impactful that can be on economies and society and our most vulnerable. And I’m really thinking through the post-global financial crisis period here in the U.S. from 2008 to 2012 where there was a huge amount of human suffering.”

Burt said DeltaTerra Capital’s research suggests that 20% of U.S. homes have “meaningful exposure” to a mispricing issue because of flood risk. If realized, he warned the fallout could resemble the extraordinary correction seen during the global financial crisis.

“We think of this repricing issue as maybe a quarter of the size and magnitude of the [global financial crisis] in aggregate, but of course very, very damaging within those exposed communities,” Burt said.

Posted in Crisis, National Real Estate, Risky Lending | 104 Comments

Vacancies and Zombies

Posted on April 4, 2023 by grim

From ATTOM Real Estate:

Top 10 U.S. Housing Markets with Zombie Properties in Q1 2023

From the Record:

North Jersey office vacancy hits 14-year high amid uncertain economy, report finds

The flight from offices triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic showed no signs of abating in this year’s first quarter, with north and central New Jersey’s office vacancy rate reaching its highest level since the Great Recession, according to a report Monday.

The vacancy rate was 25.8%, nearing the 26% recorded in 2009 in the wake of the global financial crisis, according to the quarterly analysis released by JLL, an East Rutherford-based real estate services firm.

“The first three months of 2023 were overshadowed by macroeconomic uncertainties, which provided headwinds to office demand,” the report said.

That continued the upward climb of the pandemic years. The vacancy rate was 24.5% at the end of 2022, JLL said. The firm cited “restrained demand” as well as consolidations of existing office space. About 1.8 million square feet of space came onto the market in this year’s first quarter, according to the report.

Hudson River waterfront properties saw the biggest declines. The largest deal signed in the quarter involved drugmaker Sanofi’s leasing of 260,000 square feet at the planned M Station West building in Morristown. The company will relocate its operations from Bridgewater in phases during late 2024 and early 2025, JLL said.

“Some companies are still looking to see what they want to do with their workspace going forward,” said Steven Jenco, director of New Jersey research at JLL. “Companies are still trying to feel out their return to office, how much space they’re going to need going forward.”  
…
Overall, New Jersey had 168 million square feet of office inventory in north and central new Jersey in the first quarter: 101 million in the north with a 26.8% vacancy rate, and 67 million in Central Jersey with a 24% vacancy rate, according to the JLL report.

Posted in Crisis, Demographics, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 97 Comments

Spring doesn’t matter this year?

Posted on April 3, 2023 by grim

From Money:

Why Seasonality Doesn’t Matter in the Housing Market This Spring

The housing market usually has seasonal ebbs and flows. Spring is historically a very strong season for the real estate market, and home sales tend to peak during the warmest months of summer.

But now, with interest rate hikes continuing to affect the terms mortgage lenders are offering to homebuyers, seasonality might not hold nearly the same influence on real estate. Rather, it looks like the market in 2023 could be all about mortgage rates.
…
Spring is normally the start of the busiest time of the year for home sales. However, there have been fewer closings than usual so far in 2023, even as the historically-active season kicks off. “We’re not seeing the typical spring seasonal increase in business,” Redfin agent Shauna Pendleton said in a news release.

The real estate market is morphing. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have had a depressing effect on the housing market. When the central bank hikes rates, it becomes more expensive to borrow money. This ripples across to variable-rate loans like credit cards and mortgages, pushing these rates up in turn. The rate hikes are indirectly causing the market to shirk its typical seasonal trends.

As the Fed softens ever so slightly on its most recent rate hike, mortgage rates seem like the new end all, be all for the housing market in 2023.

“There’s no seasonality,” Pendleton said. “Homebuyers and sellers are hyper-focused on mortgage rates.”

Posted in Mortgages, National Real Estate | 93 Comments

Lowball! Alpine Edition

Posted on April 1, 2023 by grim

From NJ1015:

New Jersey’s most expensive home finally sells — look inside

The Stone Mansion in Alpine — New Jersey’s most expensive home for sale — has finally sold years after it was listed.

The sale price, which started out at $68 million in 2010 before it was even finished, was dropped over the years and finally sold for $27.5 million. The home was completed in 2013 and has been on the market ever since.

So, what does that much money get you? First off, 30,000 square feet of living space; 12 bedrooms, 15 full bathrooms and four half-baths. From the Sotheby’s listing, you also get:

Reception rooms of grand scale proportions include a ballroom, martini parlor, his and her libraries, formal living room, formal dining room, north and south art galleries, and wine tasting room.

It has a 65-foot saltwater pool (the pool house has its own kitchen), a tennis court, an elevator to all levels, and a heated driveway.

Posted in Housing Bubble, Lowball, New Jersey Real Estate | 84 Comments

Why wouldn’t they?

Posted on March 31, 2023 by grim

From CNBC:

More home sellers are sitting out of the spring housing market

It might seem like a great time to list your home for sale. Buyers are flooding back into the market, mortgage rates have fallen off their recent highs, and there are still far too few homes for sale to meet demand. But potential sellers aren’t budging.

New listings continued to fall in March, according to Realtor.com, down 20% from the same month last year. That decline in new listings outpaced the 16% drop posted in February. New listings in March were nearly 30% below pre-pandemic levels.

The active inventory of homes for sale is, however, 60% higher than the start of last spring, but that is only because homes are taking longer to sell. Inventory is also half of what it was at the start of spring in 2019, before the Covid pandemic caused an unprecedented run on housing.

Homes are now sitting on the market an average of 54 days, up from an average of 36 days at the start of last spring. Time on market was longer in all of the top 50 metropolitan markets, but the greatest increases were in Raleigh, North Carolina (up 42 days), Kansas City, Missouri (up 37 days), and Austin, Texas (up 37 days). 

“Amid fewer new choices on the market and still rising home prices, home shoppers have shown that they are very rate sensitive, only jumping back in the market when rates dip, and so what happens with rates this spring will likely play a strong role in determining whether the housing market bumps along or picks up speed this year,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com.

Posted in Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 111 Comments

Big Discount?

Posted on March 30, 2023 by grim

From the Star Ledger:

More N.J. homes are selling below asking price

List price and what buyers actually paid for a home in New Jersey have been wildly different for the past few years.

Bidding wars that drove up sales prices were a hallmark of the pandemic market. And now that the market is cooling — largely due to higher interest rates on mortgages — buyers are gaining more control in the residential real estate market.

“People don’t have as much money to spend because interest rates are so much higher,” said Marybeth Mcgee of RE/MAX Bay Point Realtors. “What they could afford last year is now almost $100,000 less.”

Home prices have risen 36% since 2020, and interest rates have doubled since August 2021.

A person making $100,000 per year with a 10% down payment could’ve afforded a home for $383,355 in August 2021. By December 2022 their buying affordability dropped to $279,733, according to data from the Otteau Group.

And a person with an income of $200,000 could’ve afforded a home for $1,085,861 in August 2021. In December 2022 the affordable price tag dropped to $808,295.

Typically home prices increase only 4 to 5 percent per year, said Jeffrey Otteau, a real estate economist and president of the Otteau Group. Between 2013 and 2019, home prices increased an average of 3.5%.

Prices were bid up by people coming from New York City and adjusting them to their own income levels. “People working in New Jersey cannot afford house prices in New Jersey because of this dynamic,” Otteau said.

Percent of list price paid on closed sales in New Jersey dipped below 100% for the first time in December 2022, when it hit 99.8%. It slipped further in January, to 99.4%, and to 99.1% in February, according to data from New Jersey Realtors.

Percent of list price peaked in New Jersey in June 2022 at 105.1%. At that same time — two months after the interest hiked began — price reductions became more common across the state.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 82 Comments

Home prices continue falling

Posted on March 29, 2023 by grim

From CNBC:

Home prices cool in January, even falling in some cities, S&P Case-Shiller says

Home prices cooled in January, up only 3.8% nationally than they were a year earlier, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index. That is down from 5.6% in December.

Prices have been falling for seven straight months, but the decline was a bit smaller in January. That was likely due to a brief drop in mortgage rates and a resulting jump in sales.

The 10-city composite rose 2.5% year over year, down from 4.4% in December. The 20-city composite also rose 2.5%, down from 4.6% in the previous month.

Home prices have been cooling due to higher mortgage rates. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage set more than a dozen record lows during the first two years of the pandemic, briefly going below 2%, but it grew sharply. Since fall, the rate has been hovering in the high 6% range, although it’s been volatile in recent weeks due to several bank failures and the resulting stress on the overall banking industry.

“Despite this, the Federal Reserve remains focused on its inflation-reduction targets, which suggest that rates may remain elevated in the near-term,” said Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, in a release. “Mortgage financing and the prospect of economic weakness are therefore likely to remain a headwind for housing prices for at least the next several months.”

Prices were lower year over year in San Francisco (-7.6%), Seattle (-5.1%), Portland, Oregon (-0.5%) and San Diego (-1.4%). They were flat in Phoenix.

Miami, Tampa and Atlanta again saw the hottest annual price gains of the top 20 cities. Miami prices were up 13.8%, Tampa prices up 10.5%, and Atlanta prices rose 8.4%. All 20 cities, however, reported lower prices in the year ending January 2023 versus the year ending December 2022.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 80 Comments

Spring!

Posted on March 27, 2023 by grim

From Fox News:

Spring home buying season shows ‘steady demand’ as mortgage rates slip for second week

The spring home buying season is showing “steady demand” as mortgage rates slip for a second week in a row. 

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate by a quarter-percentage point and signaled that it could soon pause the increases amid the worst banking crisis since 2008.

Despite the Fed’s announcement this week, Redfin says its overall housing-market outlook for this spring hasn’t wavered. 

“Mortgage rates are likely to temporarily decline but not plummet, and demand is likely to swing up and down based on fluctuations in rates and availability of homes on the market,” the real estate brokerage reported.

Over the past week, in particular, demand increased as the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate slipped to 6.42% as of March 23, down from 6.6% a week prior, according to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac. As a result, the typical U.S. homebuyer’s monthly housing payment was pulled down from its peak two weeks ago, according to Redfin. 

Redfin also noted that mortgage-purchase applications are up 17% from a month ago and the number of homebuyers contacting Redfin agents for tours also rose this week. 

The issue, though, is that there is still a tight supply of homes given that “sellers are typically slower to return than buyers,” according to the brokerage. 

New listings during the four weeks ending March 19 fell 22% compared to a year earlier, marking “one of the biggest declines since the housing market nearly ground to a halt in the beginning of the pandemic.” 

On top of that, Redfin projected that competition could increase further as we get deeper into spring as long as rates stay closer to 6% than 7%. 

Posted in Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 158 Comments

NJ adds 4,600 jobs in Feb

Posted on March 24, 2023 by grim

From the NJ Department of Labor and Workforce Development:

NJ’s Strong Labor Market Continues in February

New Jersey continued to experience a strong labor market, preliminary estimates produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show, with 4,600 nonfarm jobs added in February to a seasonally adjusted level of 4,321,400.

According to the estimates, the state’s private sector added 3,600 jobs, and the unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage point to 3.5 percent.

New Jersey has added 105,400 jobs over the past year.

January employment estimates were revised downward by 4,800 to a total gain of 19,400 jobs. The January unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.4 percent.

In February, four out of nine major private industry sectors experienced job growth. Sectors that recorded employment increases were education and health services (+3,500), professional and business services (+2,600), manufacturing (+600), and financial activities (+100). Sectors that recorded a loss were leisure and hospitality (-1,600), other services (-900), trade, transportation, and utilities (-500), and information (-100). Construction had no change. Month-over-month, the state’s public sector increased by 1,000 jobs.

Between February 2022 and February 2023, preliminary estimates show that job growth in New Jersey was broad based, with all nine major private industry sectors recording job gains. In descending order, these industries are education and health services (+47,700), leisure and hospitality (+22,800), trade, transportation, and utilities (+8,400), manufacturing (+6,600), other services (+5,500), professional and business services (+4,100), information (+2,700), financial activities (+2,400), and construction (+1,200). Year-over-year, the state’s public sector added 4,000 jobs.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 116 Comments

Don’t sell, rent.

Posted on March 23, 2023 by grim

From Fortune:

Homeowners who held onto a 3% mortgage rate are becoming ‘accidental landlords’

The era of lower-than-ever mortgage rates is long gone, and it’s been replaced with rates hovering around 7%. But homeowners who locked in lower ratesbefore or during the Pandemic Housing Boom aren’t selling. In fact, some of them are becoming “accidental landlords,” simply because they don’t want to lose their low rates of the past. 

That being said, the so-called lock-in effect is putting pressure on both sides of the market. There aren’t as many buyers looking for new digs and not as many sellers looking to move up or downsize, if they’ll get stuck with a mortgage rate more than twice as high as their old one.

Redfin’s chief economist Daryl Fairweather told Fortune that high rates are constricting activity. “They’re looking at their monthly payment, which is quite low if they locked in a 3% mortgage rate compared to what their monthly payment would be if they sold and bought again, which would be quite high given how high mortgage rates are,” Fairweather said. “And it just makes a lot of sense for them to hold on to that low interest rate.”

Although rates are down from their 7.37% peak, the 30-year fixed mortgage ratecame in at 6.57% on Monday. According to Goldman Sachs, 99% of borrowers have a mortgage rate lower than the current market rate. 

So if you took on a $700,000 mortgage with a 7% rate, your total monthly payment would be $4,657. But with the same size loan at a 4% rate, your monthly payment would be $3,342. Let’s say it’s a 3% rate with the same size loan, your monthly payment would be $2,951. It’s the golden-handcuffs of mortgage rates, and it’s keeping homeowners with low rates from selling and turning some into landlords.

Fairweather said there’s both anecdotal evidence and data showing that homeowners are holding on tight to their low rates. For example, new listings of homes for sale fell 21.7% year-over-year for the four-week period ending March 5, making it the biggest decline in two months, according to Redfin. In the same period, the biggest declines were seen in Sacramento (at -45.6%), Oakland (-44.5%), Portland (-42.3%), San Jose (-42.1%), and Seattle (-41.2%). 

Michael Zuber, author of One Rental at a Time and former tech worker turned real estate investor, told Fortune that a 30-year fixed mortgage at a rate of 3% is without question one of the best assets most homeowners will ever have. 

“They shouldn’t sell, they should rent it out,” Zuber said, adding that several people on Twitter have told him they’re making around $1,000 a month after expenses from doing exactly that, sarcastically adding that the prospect of that “doesn’t suck.” 

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 140 Comments

NAR: First price decline in 11 years

Posted on March 22, 2023 by grim

From CNBC:

Home sales spike 14.5% in February as the median price drops for the first time in over a decade

Sales of previously owned homes rose 14.5% in February compared with January, according to a seasonally adjusted count by the National Association of Realtors. That put sales at an annualized rate of 4.58 million units.

It was the first monthly gain in 12 months and the largest increase since July 2020, just after the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. Sales were, however, 22.6% lower than they were in February of last year.

These sales counts are based on closings, so the contracts were likely signed at the end of December and throughout January, when mortgage rates had fallen sharply. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed loan hovered in the low 6% range throughout January after reaching a high of 7% last fall.
…

Higher mortgage rates have been cooling home prices since last summer, and for the first time in a record 131 consecutive months — nearly 11 years — prices were lower on a year-over-year comparison. The median price of an existing home sold in February was $363,000, a 0.2% decline from February 2022.

That lower median price could be a sign that homes on the more affordable end of the market are selling.

Sales might have been even higher were it not for what is still very low supply. There were just 980,000 homes for sale at the end of February, according to the Realtors, flat compared with January. At the current sales pace, that represents a 2.6-month supply. A balanced market between buyer and seller is considered a 4- to 6-month supply.

“Inventory levels are still at historic lows,” Yun added. “Consequently, multiple offers are returning on a good number of properties.”

This could start to heat prices again, but with mortgage rates now higher than they were in January it will be harder for some buyers to compete.
…
All-cash sales accounted for 28% of transactions in February, down from 29% in January but up from 25% in February 2022. Individual investors returned, making up 18% of buyers, up from 16% in January but down from 19% in February 2022.

When looking at sales at different price points, they were all down in the range of 20% from February last year, with sales down the most in the top, million-dollar-plus segment.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 93 Comments