New Jersey Real Estate Report

From Mansion Global:

U.S. Home Inventory Hits Historic Lows

Booming demand for U.S. homes drove the number of properties for sale to new lows in December, according to a report on Thursday. 

Nationwide, the number of homes for sale fell below 700,000 in December, the lowest in recent history, according to realtor.com. A flurry of demand that has vastly outpaced new listings to the market has steadily eroded U.S. housing inventory since the summer and caused home prices to surge. 

A housing shortage has been building for years, said Danielle Hale, realtor.com’s chief economist—especially at more affordable price points. 

But in December the combination of the holiday inventory slowdown and the pandemic buying trend caused it to dip to its lowest level in history,” Ms. Hale said in the report. She forecasted U.S. housing supply would remain low for at least a few more months as a winter surge in Covid-19 cases discourages sellers from entering the market. 

Buyers are facing an acute shortage of homes to choose from in cities like Austin, Texas; Denver; and Providence, Rhode Island. These and other areas like Dallas and Charlotte, North Carolina, had less than half the number of homes for sale as they did in December 2019. 

From the Hill:

Five metro areas with highest 2020 move outs located in NY, NJ: study

The five metro areas with the highest move outs in 2020 were located in New York and New Jersey, according to a study from moving company United Van Lines. 

The Nassau-Suffolk area in New York and the Bergen-Passaic area in New Jersey were the top two areas that experienced the greatest outbound migration, each seeing 81 percent outbound migration, according to the company’s 44th Annual National Migration Study. 

Trenton, N.J., saw 76 percent outbound, while New York City and Newark, N.J., both saw 72 percent outbound migration.

Areas that saw a high level of inbound moves were Wilmington, N.C., and Boise, Idaho, with 79 percent and 75 percent, respectively.

Overall, New Jersey topped the list of outbound locations, experiencing 70 percent in 2020. New York followed with 67 percent. Illinois, Connecticut and California were next on the list, with 67 percent, 63 percent and 59 percent, respectively. 

From the NY Post:

Alarming number of US health care workers are refusing COVID-19 vaccine

U.S. health care workers are first in line to receive the COVID-19 vaccine — but an alarming number across the country are refusing to do so. 

Earlier this week, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine disclosed that about 60 percent of the nursing home workers in his state have so far chosen not to get vaccinated. 

More than half of New York City’s EMS workers have shown skepticism, The Post reported last month. 

And now California and Texas are experiencing a high rate of health care worker refusals, according to reports.

An estimated 50 percent of frontline workers in Riverside County in the Golden State opted against the drug, the Los Angeles Times reported, citing public health officials. 

More than half of the hospital workers at California’s St. Elizabeth Community Hospital that were eligible to receive the vaccine did not, the newspaper. 

And in the Lone Star State, a doctor at Houston Memorial Medical Center told NPR earlier this month that half the nurses in the facility would not get the vaccine, citing political reasons. 

The excuse shared by the Texas nurses was echoed in a recent Kaiser Family Foundation survey that found 29 percent of health workers were “vaccine hesitant,” the Times reported. 

Happy New Year! Remember, the new normal is always better than the old normal.

From Bloomberg:

New Jersey Minimum Wage Increasing to $12/Hour, Faces Criticism

New Jersey’s minimum wage will rise to $12 per hour on Friday even as businesses are struggling to stay open and critics are saying the higher cost will make a pandemic recovery even tougher.

Governor Phil Murphy, though, is standing by the $1 increase, mandated by legislation he signed in 2019, as a positive for employees whose hours may have been cut amid other hardships since March, when New Jersey reported its first Covid-19 case.

“Good news: Beginning tomorrow, New Jersey’s minimum wage will rise to $12 an hour — a boost for our workers, their families and our economy,” Murphy, a first-term Democrat running for re-election in November, wrote in a tweet on Thursday.

New Jersey’s minimum wage will rise to $15 in 2024 from $8.85 in February 2019. Twenty-nine U.S. states have minimum pay above the $7.25 federal rate, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, a Washington-based lobbying group.

…

“A higher minimum wage is great except when your salary goes to zero when the business that you’re working for goes under,” Senator Declan O’Scanlon, a Republican from Little Silver, said by telephone.

The New Jersey Business and Industry Association and the New Jersey Chamber of Commerce were among those opposed to the lack of an emergency delay option. Amid the pandemic they argued that businesses were burdened by mandatory closings earlier this year, personal protective equipment costs and reduced hours and indoor occupancy caps.

From InsiderNJ:

New Jersey Employment Increases in November; Unemployment Rate Increases To 10.2% 

New Jersey private sector employers added to their payrolls in November for the seventh consecutive month while employment in the public sector moved lower. Estimates produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate that total nonfarm wage and salary employment in New Jersey increased by 7,100 in November to reach a seasonally adjusted level of 3,896,300. The gains were recorded in the private sector (+9,700) of the state’s economy while employment in the public sector fell by 2,600.

New Jersey has now regained a total of 485,700 jobs in the six months since April, or about 58 percent of the jobs lost due to the coronavirus pandemic and measures taken in response to it. The state’s unemployment rate increased by 2.2 percentage points to 10.2 percent in November, mainly due to New Jersey residents re-entering the labor force seeking employment over the month. See the technical notes at the end of this release for information about the impact of the coronavirus on this month’s employment estimates.

Based on more complete reporting from employers, previously released total nonfarm employment estimates for October were revised higher by 2,300 to show an over-the-month (September – October) decrease of 2,900 jobs. Preliminary estimates had indicated an over-the-month loss of 5,200 jobs. The state’s October unemployment rate was revised lower to 8.0 percent.

In November, employment increases were recorded in six out of nine major private industry sectors. Sectors that recorded job gains include trade, transportation, and utilities (+14,300), education and health services (+2,900), financial activities (+2,100), information, (+900), manufacturing (+600), and professional and business services (+500). Sectors that recorded job losses include leisure and hospitality (-6,400), construction (-3,800), and other services (-1,400). The public sector recorded a decrease of 2,600 over the month, concentrated at the federal level (-2,700).

Way to go Punch and Judy – Doses Administered

Texas – 140k
California – 128k
Florida – 119k
New York – 113k
Illinois – 102k
…
New Jersey – 37k

Nearly a full year in mobility:

From NJ Spotlight:

Tracking sites suggest early vaccinations lagging in NJ

New Jersey officials say they are pleased with how the state’s coronavirus vaccine program has launched at hospitals, and health care and labor leaders reported few significant glitches with the process to date.

But questions remain about the pace of immunizations at the hospital-based vaccine clinics, which began administering the vaccines to at-risk health care workers early last week, and state officials declined Tuesday to provide updated data on how many sites are now operating and how many people have been immunized thus far.

…

A New York Times analysis of the first week of vaccine shipments reported that New York state administered 19,000 doses of the Pfizer product, or 22% of the 87,750 doses it received. West Virginia used nearly 2,800 doses, or 17% of its initial shipment; Rhode Island administered more than 1,200 doses, or 12% of its early allotment; and Massachusetts dispensed 6,200 doses, some 10% of what it got from federal officials.

New Jersey initially received 76,000 vaccines and had administered less than 2,200 by Friday, or under 3% of the total received, according to the Times. By Sunday afternoon, state officials said, some 8,700 people had been immunized at 26 hospital-based clinics, but they declined to provide updated figures Tuesday.

Data reported by the Washington Post on Monday — which included new shipments and inoculations provided over the weekend — indicated the pace of immunizations was accelerating in some states. By then, New York state had administered 38,000 doses (17% of total deliveries), Florida had immunized 43,700 people (using 14% of its supply), and Pennsylvania had inoculated 17,700 individuals (10% of its shipments), despite a slow start the first week.  (The Post still listed New Jersey as administering less than 2,200 doses.)

Murphy’s office declined Tuesday to respond to questions about the rollout or provide updated figures on New Jersey’s progress. The DOH also declined to share new vaccination totals, suggesting updates would be made available at the governor’s regularly scheduled briefing Wednesday.

From WaPo:

Moderna vaccine shipments set to arrive in states on Monday, Operation Warp Speed logistics chief says

Shipments of the second coronavirus vaccine approved by health regulators are set to arrive in states Monday, according to the Trump administration’s vaccine operations chief, one week after front-line health workers received the first shots in the U.S. government’s mass vaccination campaign.

Gustave Perna, chief operating officer of Operation Warp Speed, said Saturday that distribution was underway for the vaccine developed by Massachusetts biotechnology company Moderna in partnership with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, following the Food and Drug Administration’s decision to clear the shot late Friday.

Workers were packing the vials into boxes at distribution centers run by the medical wholesale giant McKesson, Perna said. FedEx and UPS trucks are slated to depart Sunday and carry the freezer-temperature containers to their destinations. The government has also begun shipping ancillary kits including needles, syringes and other supplies to help administer the shots, according to Perna.

From Northjersey.com

‘Historic day’ in pandemic fight as health care workers first in NJ to get COVID vaccine

At 8:10 a.m. Tuesday, with a single needle prick to nurse Maritza Beniquez’s arm, New Jersey began its counterattack on a virus that has killed more than 17,000 of its residents, crippled whole sectors of its economy and shattered the routines of everyone from preschoolers to nursing home residents. 

The shot felt ‘round the state came 286 days after the first patient in New Jersey was diagnosed with the coronavirus disease and nearly a year after reports of a previously unknown disease emerged from central China.

It was administered at University Hospital in Newark, located in the hardest-hit county of this hard-hit state. Since March, the hospital has discharged more than 1,200 coronavirus patients, seen 269 die and lost 11 of its staff members to the disease, including one just last week.

From CNN:

US Covid-19 vaccinations expected to begin Monday as CDC head gives final nod

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Robert Redfield gave the final nod Sunday to the first coronavirus vaccine for the United States, clearing the way for shots to start. 

Redfield accepted the recommendation of the agency’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices that Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine may be given to people 16 and older.

The first shots are expected to begin on Monday.

“This official CDC recommendation follows Friday’s FDA decision to authorize the emergency use of Pfizer’s vaccine. As COVID-19 cases continue to surge throughout the U.S., CDC’s recommendation comes at a critical time,” Redfield said in a statement.

“Initial COVID-19 vaccination is set to start as early as Monday, and this is the next step in our efforts to protect Americans, reduce the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and help restore some normalcy to our lives and our country.”

From the NYT:

F.D.A. Clears Pfizer Vaccine, and Millions of Doses Will Be Shipped Right Away

The Food and Drug Administration authorized Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine for emergency use on Friday, clearing the way for millions of highly vulnerable people to begin receiving the vaccine within days.

The authorization is a historic turning point in a pandemic that has taken more than 290,000 lives in the United States. With the decision, the United States becomes the sixth country — in addition to Britain, Bahrain, Canada, Saudi Arabia and Mexico — to clear the vaccine. Other authorizations, including by the European Union, are expected within weeks.

…

Pfizer has a deal with the U.S. government to supply 100 million doses of the vaccine by next March. Under that agreement, the shots will be free to the public.

Every state, along with six major cities, has submitted to the federal government a list of locations — mostly hospitals — where the Pfizer vaccine is to ship initially. In populous Florida, the first recipients will be five hospitals, in Jacksonville, Miami, Orlando, Tampa and Hollywood. In tiny, rural Vermont, only the University of Vermont Medical Center and a state warehouse will get supplies.

From the NY Times:

F.D.A. Advisory Panel Gives Green Light to Pfizer Vaccine

Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine passed a critical milestone on Thursday when a panel of experts formally recommended that the Food and Drug Administration authorize the vaccine. The agency is likely to do so within days, giving health care workers and nursing home residents first priority to begin receiving the first shots early next week.

The F.D.A.’s vaccine advisory panel, composed of independent scientific experts, infectious disease doctors and statisticians, voted 17 to 4, with one member abstaining, in favor of emergency authorization for people 16 and older. With rare exceptions, the F.D.A. follows the advice of its advisory panels.

With this formal blessing, the nation may finally begin to slow the spread of the virus just as infections and deaths surge, reaching a record of more than 3,000 daily deaths on Wednesday. The F.D.A. is expected to grant an emergency use authorization on Saturday, according to people familiar with the agency’s planning, though they cautioned that last-minute legal or bureaucratic requirements could push the announcement to Sunday or later.

The initial shipment of 6.4 million doses will leave warehouses within 24 hours of being cleared by the F.D.A., according to federal officials. About half of those doses will be sent across the country, and the other half will be reserved for the initial recipients to receive their second dose about three weeks later.

From NJ Business Magazine:

NJBIA’s 62nd Annual Business Outlook Survey

In last year’s Business Outlook Survey, most respondents said they were anticipating an economic downturn. 

But no one saw this coming in their 2020 vision. 

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in an economic meltdown, with unforeseen closures of operations and record unemployment, to say nothing of consumer confidence as masked shoppers treaded lightly throughout the nation. 

Nowhere has this been more felt than in New Jersey, the state that maintained its shutdown for the longest period and has been a national outlier in terms of pace of reopening and capacity levels. 

Many of the results of NJBIA’s 2021 Business Outlook Survey are what you might expect for such a devastating plunge of New Jersey’s economy. Revenue losses were severe, with a whopping 76% of respondents experiencing decreased earnings through the first eight months of 2020 – including some deeper losses in healthcare and transportation.

Moreover, 77% said they believe they will continue to incur losses as the survey was being fielded in September – with 27% saying they would continue to lose revenue through the rest of 2020 and 33% forecasting continued losses through the first half of 2021.

There certainly was no shortage of efforts by employers to right the ship during the stormy seas of 2020. Some 56% said they sought additional or alternative funding sources through federal and state loans and grants, while 59% reduced expenses and overhead. Among those decreased expenses were reduced salaries (20%), furloughed employees (22%), and laid-off workers (23%). 

Recovery-wise, 47% said they will either take more than a year, or never will, generate profits lost during non-essential business closures. 

And, looking ahead to 2021, healthcare coverage could certainly be impacted as a result of this reduced revenue. Out of the 72% of respondents who offered health insurance in 2020, 28% of them said they’ll discontinue that coverage in 2021. 

Concerns about increasing the minimum wage and the potential legal impacts of recreational cannabis were also raised, as in years past. But with the onset of the coronavirus, a new worry has emerged in the form of litigation brought by those who claim they contracted the disease while at the workplace. 

With all of this, there was the expected negative outlook for New Jersey’s economy in 2021, particularly compared to the forecast for the national economy. 

Interesting piece on the lone dissenter at the CDC:

CDC advisory panel’s lone dissenter on why long-term care residents shouldn’t receive Covid-19 vaccine first

When a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advisory committee voted Tuesday to recommend residents of long-term care facilities should be at the front of the line — with health care providers — for Covid-19 vaccines, the lone dissenting voice came from a researcher who studies vaccines in older adults.

Helen Keipp Talbot — who is known by her middle name — raised serious concerns during the meeting of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices about using the vaccines in the frail elderly, noting there are no data yet to suggest the vaccines work in this population.

All the U.S.-based Phase 3 trials of Covid vaccines have to include people 65 and older. But none has specifically tested the vaccines in people who are in long-term care. One can’t assume findings in people over age 65 who are healthy enough to be accepted for a clinical trial are indicative of everyone in that demographic, she said.

At an earlier ACIP meeting, Talbot warned that vaccinating this population at the start of the vaccine rollout is risky, because long-term care residents have a high rate of medical events that could be confused as side effects of vaccination and undermine confidence in the vaccines. “And I think you’re going to have a very striking backlash of, ‘My grandmother got the vaccine and she passed away,’” she said at the time.