New Jersey Real Estate Report

Say YES! to $56k in property taxes

Posted on March 10, 2024 by grim

From the Record:

Daybreak, an updated 100-year-old brick mansion in Montclair, hits market for $7.5M

Jobs Day!

Posted on March 8, 2024 by grim

From the WSJ:

Jobs Report Today: What to Watch

Investors’ eyes are on the jobs report today.

February’s jobs data are due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect that hiring cooled from January. A softer labor market could translate into less spending power for consumers, and lower inflation, making the case for interest-rate cuts.

Investors got a shot of optimism Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank wasn’t far from being able to cut interest rates. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank’s fresh inflation forecasts signaled the possibility of earlier rate cuts, although no earlier than June.

February’s job report is expected to show the U.S. economy added 198,000 jobs and that the unemployment rate held at 3.7%. Last month, job creation came in hotter-than-expected, forcing investors to rethink their expectations for rate cuts this year.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble | 144 Comments

This is the top 20?

Posted on March 7, 2024 by grim

From NJ1015:

The top 10 hottest towns in New Jersey to buy a home

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 33 Comments

Spring has sprung

Posted on March 6, 2024 by grim

From NorthJersey.com:

Real estate update: Is North Jersey finally seeing more housing inventory?

In February, 19 of New Jersey’s 21 counties saw an increase in new listings over January. Additionally, 12 New Jersey counties saw more new listings this year than they did in February 2023.

In North Jersey, Morris and Passaic counties saw the highest increases in new inventory, at 378 and 246 new listings, respectively. These are increases of 48.82% and 36.67% from January, and 4.42% and 4.24% increases from February 2023.

Sussex County had 184 new listings in February — 19.48% more than January and 5.75% more than February 2023. Bergen and Hudson counties had 608 and 374 new listings, respectively, in February. While this is 13.43% and 6.25% more than in January, it is 7.03% and 11.37% less than in February 2023.

Essex County was the only North Jersey county to see a decrease in new listings compared with January. With 362 new listings, Essex County had slip of a 3.72% and an 8.59% decline from February 2023.

All 21 counties saw home listings stay on the market for a shorter period than that in January.

In Sussex County, listings typically stayed on the market for 45 days before being sold — the most time in North Jersey. In contrast, listings typically stayed on the market for 27 days in Morris County — the least time in North Jersey.

Homes typically stayed on the market for 31 days in Essex County, 33 days in Bergen County, 34 days in Passaic County and 41 days in Hudson County.

While median home listing prices have decreased slightly in some counties from January, every New Jersey county saw an increase in median listing prices compared with February 2023.

Passaic and Sussex counties had the highest increases in North Jersey, at 11.47% and 11.19%, with median listing prices of $478,750 and $402,500, respectively. In Bergen County, prices increased by 10.57%, with a median listing price of $779,495. This is the third-highest median listing price in the New Jersey, behind Cape May and Monmouth counties.

In Hudson and Morris counties, there was an increase of 8.5% and 7.57%, with median listing prices of $649,925 and $675,000, respectively.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 141 Comments

Boomers back on top

Posted on March 5, 2024 by grim

From Philadelphia Magazine:

Boomers Are Downsizing — and Dominating Philly’s Real Estate Market

Take a walk through the Laurel, the recently completed luxury condo tower at Rittenhouse Square’s northwest corner, and you might mistake it for a retirement community.

When you consider how many aging baby boomers call it home, that makes sense.

As of the end of January, 60 percent of the Laurel’s 65 condos had been sold. And 65 percent of those buyers were baby boomers.

The baby-boom generation has been the pig in the demographic python ever since World War II GIs and their wives made like rabbits the moment the warriors returned home. And as that cohort has aged, it has shaped and reshaped the way Americans live. From mass-produced suburbs like Levittown aimed at their parents to more upscale suburbs targeted at them as they rose through the workforce, the boomers have had their needs, desires, tastes and preferences determine what our communities look like.

That’s certainly been the case locally. And though the boomers are done raising families and are exiting the workforce, they’re still reshaping the way we live. Or, at least, reshaping the way they live.
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The boomers are no longer the largest generation; millennials surpassed them in 2019, and Generation Z is nipping at their heels, if it hasn’t outgrown them already. But according to the National Association of Realtors, boomers last year overtook millennials as the single largest segment of the home-buying population — a designation those millennials had held since 2014.

Several trends contribute to this rise in boomer buying.

The older half of the generation (the youngest members of this half turn 69 this year) is largely out of the workforce. And while medical advances allow aging boomers to live longer, healthier lives, no one has yet found a way to halt aging entirely. These older boomers, then, are looking at the day when they may need help performing everyday tasks — and looking for communities where they can get it.

The younger half includes many who, like me, remain in the workforce and have no plans to retire anytime soon. (I was born in the second-highest year for births in the baby boom, 1958, and celebrated my 65th birthday in October.) Most of this group needs space for working from home, since the pandemic drove so many of us to work where we live at least part of the time. But our kids have also flown the coop, so we’re looking to jettison the extra bedrooms we needed for them.

And some of us want to get rid of the yards around our houses as well. We’re finding it harder to climb stairs, fueling a demand for main-floor bedrooms. New-construction houses increasingly have those, but for boomers who don’t want to buy a new house (and another yard), that usually means buying a condo, like those at the Laurel.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 83 Comments

NJ rents only up 2.3%?

Posted on March 4, 2024 by grim

From the Bergen Record:

Here’s what rent prices look like in NJ, and the US, at the start of 2024

As home prices have continued to soar and mortgage rates remain high, many would-be first-time buyers are opting to stay in the rental market longer.

This might be the more doable financial option for many — with median rent prices continuing to decline across the nation for the sixth month in a row −— but those living in the Northeast have experienced consistent price increases in comparison, according to Realtor.com’s January 2024 Rental Report.
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Compared to big Western rental markets like Phoenix, Riverside and Las Vegas — which all saw rent prices decline for eight months before seeing their first year-over-year price growth in January 2024 — the New York metropolitan area has experienced faster rent growth.

This region — which includes the North Jersey counties of Hudson, Bergen, Passaic, Morris, Essex and Sussex — has median rents of $2,844. This is 2.3% more than median rent prices seen in our area this time last year.

The report credits the steady increase in rent prices in our area to expensive home prices and high mortgage rates are keeping buyers in the rental market, boosting demand and putting pressure on rents in popular areas.

A strong labor market and the slowing growth of new multi-family homes is also said to play a role in increasing prices.

“Consequently, the stronger labor market in the Northeast is likely contributing to an increased demand for rentals, rendering it more competitive compared to the rental market in the West,” according to the report.

“Although both regions saw record-high new multi-family starts in 2022, we expect a significant portion of 2022 starts in the Northeast to be completed in 2024,” the report reads.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 66 Comments

Huh?

Posted on March 3, 2024 by grim

From the LA Times:

Forget California exodus. New Jersey residents lead an influx back into the Golden State

After a half decade of Californians moving to places like Texas and Florida, an unlikely state has been supplying California with new residents.

New Jersey, a similarly expensive and densely populated state, saw more residents move to California than the other way around in 2022 — a rarity amid the state’s population exodus. It was one of only eight states to be part of a reverse exodus phenomenon, and the state with the largest net number of transplants to California.
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In recent years, California has experienced a net exodus to most other states, with experts attributing the population shift primarily to California’s high housing costs. But a handful of states have bucked that trend, sending transplants into the Golden State at a time when more people are moving out. New Jersey, one of the nation’s most densely populated states, has recently recorded the biggest net exodus of residents moving to California.

In 2022, the so-called California exodus resulted in 818,000 Californians leaving for other states, while 476,000 moved in, resulting in a total domestic loss of 342,000 in the Golden State.

The exodus was highlighted by the droves who left for Texas. The five states that saw the most net arrivals from California — Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Florida and Idaho — each had between 20,000 and 60,000 more people arrive than leave for the Golden State.

By contrast, the eight states that were net contributors to California’s population added to a net contribution under 15,000 people. In other words, the size of the net exodus to each state has been much larger than the number of transplants moving into California.

More than 13,000 New Jerseyans moved to California in 2022, and fewer than 7,000 Californians moved to New Jersey. The net migration into California — nearly 7,000 people — was the highest of any state. Illinois was second, with net in-migration to California of around 4,000 people.

Nebraska, with 2,000 more leaving for California than arriving, was the third highest.

In total, 41 of 49 states saw more Californian arrivals than departures for the Golden State.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 16 Comments

$4.9m record breaker in Weehawken

Posted on March 2, 2024 by grim

From Patch:

Christie’s International Real Estate Group announces the sale of 12 Henley Place – an iconic and record-breaking sale that set a historic benchmark at Henley on the Hudson, with its remarkable sale price of $4.9 million. Jessica Williams, Realtor-Associate® and distinguished luxury real estate specialist, represented both the seller and buyer of this exquisite and resplendent home. The sale of 12 Henley Place resulted in the top residential sale along the developing Weehawken Waterfront. “The seamless execution of this sale underscores our commitment to delivering unparalleled service and showcasing exceptional properties along the Gold Coast. At Christie’s, we take pride in elevating the real estate

Posted in General, Gold Coast, Housing Bubble, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 40 Comments

All your wages are belong to us

Posted on March 1, 2024 by grim

Hat tip to ChiFi, not for this, but for everything he contributes. Hats off to you my friend.

From the Visual Capitalist:

Charted: U.S. Median House Prices vs. Income

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 115 Comments

All Hail Prince and Princess Snowflake

Posted on February 29, 2024 by grim

From the Guardian:

Millennials on course to become ‘richest generation in history’

Millennials may have been portrayed as frivolous spenders squandering their income on overpriced coffees and online barre classes in the face of pitiful long-term finances – but they are on course to become the “richest generation in history”, a study has shown.

Those born between 1981 and 2000 are in line for a “seismic” windfall over the next 20 years, according to research by real estate agent Knight Frank, thanks to the property assets accumulated by the generations before them.

While the distribution of wealth may be shifting between world regions, an even bigger shift is happening between generations. The switch will see $90tn (£71tn) of assets move between generations in the US alone, “making affluent millennials the richest generation in history”, Knight Frank said in its 18th annual wealth report.

The research found that 75% of millennials expect their wealth to increase in 2024, against 53% in the baby boomer generation (those born between 1946 and 1964), 56% in gen X (1965 to 1980) and 69% in the younger gen Z.

While they wait for their inheritances, many millennials are still reeling from a series of economic shocks, with the 2008 crash followed by a series of financial headwinds brought about by the pandemic, Brexit and war in Ukraine.

As a result of rising rents, they have spent much of their income on housing costs and faced significant challenges to afford their own homes or build up a pension pot. The conditions have fuelled an image that millennials – shorn of the target of saving their income to acquire property – have frittered their money away on pricey pastimes and avocado on toast.

In reality, their future financial firepower is likely to be a divisive lottery, predominantly determined by inheritance from previous generations, including property.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate | 58 Comments

Taxes Up!

Posted on February 28, 2024 by grim

From News12:

Gov. Murphy seek $55.9B New Jersey budget, increasing education aid, boosting biz taxes to fund transit

Gov. Phil Murphy on Tuesday unveiled a $55.9 billion budget, up about 5% over his previous year’s proposal, calling for nearly $1 billion more in K-12 school funding as well as about $1 billion in new taxes on high-earning businesses to fund transit.

Murphy, a two-term Democrat, cast the budget as the fulfillment of campaign pledges to identify a recurring source of funding for New Jersey Transit and to fully finance a state formula for schools that’s never before been fully implemented.

“Our budget will ensure New Jersey retains its proud reputation as the best place anywhere to raise a family,” he said.

The governor’s seventh budget comes amid declining revenues in the current fiscal year, something Murphy attributes to a hangover from 2022. The budget proposes drawing down the state’s surplus of about $8 billion to more than $6 billion to help close the gap.

Murphy campaigned in 2017 on fully funding a school aid formula, which the state supreme court ratified in 2009 and that never was fully implemented. The proposal calls for increasing aid from nearly $10.8 billion to $11.7 billion, but Murphy also stressed the incremental increase of school funding since he took office. Aid had been largely flat at $8 billion annually throughout much of Republican Chris Christie’s two terms.
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The budget also takes aim at another campaign promise Murphy had made: setting up a funding source for the state’s often beleaguered transit system. The system has regularly had to use capital funds just to keep up operations, limiting resources for system-wide improvements. To help close the gap Murphy is proposing a 2.5% tax on business profits of companies that netting more than $10 million annually.

The proposal comes after a temporary business tax increase ended at the end of last year. That surcharge affected some 3,100 businesses, according to the administration, while the new proposal would levy taxes from about 600 firms. Murphy said small and medium sized businesses would not be impacted.

Business leaders decried the increase, arguing the governor essentially went back on a commitment to keep the corporate tax rate down.
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The state’s budget has grown significantly since Christie left office after signing a $34.7 billion spending plan. The state takes in income, sales and business taxes to fund a mix of programs and services, including state government itself but also education and health care funding.
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Murphy is also proposing to continue a property tax relief plan first initiated in 2022 that doled out up to $1,500 in tax rebates to families that make up to $150,000, as well as aid for renters. As initially envisioned the program helped under a million households. The new budget would increase the benefit to 1.3 million households, Murphy said, though it’s not clear exactly how.

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 97 Comments

NYC may see it’s glory days again

Posted on February 27, 2024 by grim

Hat tip to 3b for the Fortune doom loop article:

The ‘prophet of urban doom’ says New York City is in major trouble, and it’s just the first inning of the ballgame: ‘The cycle is out of control’

As nicknames go, Columbia Business School professor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh has a doozy. The gray lady herself, The New York Times, dubbed him the “prophet of urban doom” last year for his forecasts resulting from his years of research on the economic impact or remote work on real estate and public finance.

Now, he tells Fortune, he sees an “event horizon” for a 1970s-style downward spiral known in the economics profession as a “doom loop.” And it’s just the first inning.

Everyone knows office buildings across the country have taken a beating from Covid and the rise of remote work. Perhaps only San Francisco is a better example than New York City, where the amount of offices collecting dust is at a record high: almost 20% are sitting empty, hemorrhaging money and shrinking the city’s tax base.

More economists than Van Nieuwerburgh say that the effects could reach far beyond just the real estate sector: Without drastic changes, he says, NYC could be headed for a self-perpetuating “doom loop” that will affect everything from housing values to public services budgets to the crime rate. The most famous example is the 1970s, when “white flight” and a fiscal crisis sent New York into a slump that it didn’t kick for over a decade.

It’s a simple equation, Van Nieuwerburgh said in an interview with Fortune, “Governments cutting spending means less money for transportation, less money for education, for sanitation, for all the things that make cities attractive.”

Van Nieuwerburgh, who joined Columbia in 2018, just a few years after winning an award for his research on shocks in the housing market affecting the macroeconomy, sees the “event horizon” for this doom loop coming soon. As federal grant money runs out and delayed tax effects kick in, he says New York is in the “first inning” of what could spiral into a legitimate urban crisis.

“Over the next three to five years, we’re really going to start seeing this. This cycle is out of control.”
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The crux of the “doom loop” theory is that it’s self-perpetuating. If vacancies rise and property values fall, cities can’t collect as much in tax revenue and overexposed banks have to cut back on lending. That means less public spending on things like transit, sanitation and public safety, and less investment in small businesses. A dirtier, more dangerous and less accessible downtown is less likely to attract companies and remote workers, meaning vacancies will rise even more and property values will fall further. Wealthy residents could throw in the towel and move their families (and tax dollars) to low-tax states like Texas or Florida. And thus, the cycle repeats itself.

“The money is now running out, or it has run out. This is the first year where we don’t see extra federal dollars anymore. That’s beginning to bite…[And] the vacancy rate is already at an all-time high,” said Van Nieuwerburgh. “That combination packs a pretty severe punch.”

Posted in Crisis, Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, NYC | 101 Comments

What if rates don’t come down?

Posted on February 26, 2024 by grim

From Newsweek:

Housing Market Update: Home Prices Reach Troubling Milestone

Insufficient supply of homes in the market is pushing up prices, Wells Fargo economists said, making it tougher for Americans to afford a home amid elevated mortgage rates.

The median sale price of an existing home rose by more than 5 percent in January, according to the National Association of Realtors, even as sales rebounded from their previous months’ doldrums to jump by more than 3 percent. But the housing market still faces a supply crunch. Properties available for sale at current prices equate to about three months of supply, lower than last month and even lower than in November.

The sale price for a home came in at a little over $379,000 on the back of limited supply in January, a record high.

“[It marked] the highest sales price ever for the month of January and the seventh consecutive month of year-over-year price gains,” Wells Fargo economists pointed out.
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Nearly 90 percent of homes in America have rates below 6 percent, according to real estate platform Redfin, which means sellers are reluctant to relinquish the cheaper home loans and enter a market where a 30-year fixed rate for a home is above 7 percent.

“With homebuyers taking advantage of lower mortgage rates, low levels of inventory have kept upward pressure on prices,” according to Wells Fargo. “The combination of relatively higher mortgage rates and higher home prices will continue to make housing less affordable to many potential homebuyers.”
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Experts expect the market to improve when the rates come down.

“We expect rates to resume their decline later in the year as the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts draw closer,” Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, said on Thursday in a note shared with Newsweek.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 46 Comments

Eatontown = Hollywood?

Posted on February 24, 2024 by grim

From NJ.com:

Netflix plan to build massive N.J. studio gets key approval

Netflix’s plans to build a $903 million production studio complexat the former Fort Monmouth army base got a key approval from a local board Wednesday.

The Fort Monmouth Economic Revitalization Authority board, the governing body that oversees the fort, unanimously approved an amendment to establish zoning for the massive project.

The vote allows the streaming service and entertainment company to move ahead with getting other local approvals to build the planned studio complex. It also allows affordable housing units currently located at the fort to be relocated to a different location on the site, a spokesperson for the board said Thursday.

On Wednesday, a source close to Netflix said the company is pleased with the decision and is looking forward to engaging with the community further throughout the process.

The Fort Monmouth Economic Revitalization Authority board has 10 members, including a representative of the governor, the Monmouth County commissioner, the mayors of Eatontown, Oceanport and Tinton Falls and three state agency commissioners.

Netflix was the top bidder to acquire the 292-acre “mega parcel” in 2022. The property covers about a quarter of U.S. Army base that closed in 2011.

The sprawling Netflix complex would include 12 soundstages, totaling nearly 500,000 square feet, adjacent to Route 35 in Eatontown and Oceanport in Monmouth County, according to the San Francisco-based entertainment company.

This week’s zoning plan approval is one of the first steps in a complex process to get local officials to sign off on the project. The Fort Monmouth Economic Revitalization Authority staff also need to review the site plans for the complex before the proposal goes to the planning boards in Eatontown and Oceanport, officials said.

Netflix is expected to contribute $848 million in capital investments to the studio project. In addition to the 12 soundstages, the complex is slated to include a hotel, a helicopter pad, office buildings and visitor attractions.

In December 2022, Gov. Phil Murphy gave his stamp of approval at a conference with Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos. Murphy said the production studios will help turn New Jersey into the “Hollywood of the East Coast.”

Posted in Economics, Employment, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate, Shore Real Estate | 43 Comments

Are we in the 80s again?

Posted on February 23, 2024 by grim

From Fortune:

Say goodbye to the peak of home price appreciation, Fortune 500 chief economist says—it’s behind us

Back to the ’80s

Fleming has spoken with Fortune on several occasions about the comparison of today’s housing market to that of the 1980s. Both periods featured high inflation, rising interest rates, and a boom of homebuyers coming of age, he argues.

These three factors, Fleming wrote in an October 2023 report, could create a “housing recession” similar to that of the 1980s—a time period when home sales stay low in a frozen, unaffordable market.

While Fleming has drawn several comparisons to the 1980s housing market, today’s market isn’t exactly the same, he says.

“This time is different,” he says. “When the Fed started to reduce rates after tackling inflation in the early 1980s, house price appreciation declined nationally very modestly. Now, because supply has been so constrained, house price appreciation has been very strong and is expected to continue to remain positive as the Fed begins to lower rates.”

Also from Fortune:

It’s official: The housing market is turning millennials into their parents. A Fortune 500 economist says it’s a déjà vu market that is replaying the 1980s

It might be time for millennials to let go of the “okay, boomer” mentality considering they’re reliving their parents’ 1980s housing journey.

Although current mortgage rates—which hit 8% this week—mimic the early 2000s, the overall housing market is actually more reminiscent of the 1980s, according to a new report by the chief economist for the Fortune 500 financial services company First American.

“Today’s housing market isn’t anything like the housing market of the mid-2000s,” Mark Fleming, chief economist at First American wrote in a Tuesday report titled “1980s Déjà Vu for the Housing Market.” Of course, Fleming was dismissing the ghost of the housing crash of 2008 that precipitated the Great Financial Crisis, when subprime mortgages and other shoddy lending practices were common. Today is just fundamentally different, he wrote: “The housing market today is not overbuilt, nor is it driven by loose lending standards, sub-prime mortgages, or homeowners who are highly leveraged.”

“However,” he added, there is another precedent: ”the current housing market is similar to the market of the 1980s.” That could be a tough pill for millennials to swallow, considering they largely blame baby boomers for their inability to purchase a home in today’s market since they’re holding onto homes longer out of fear of high mortgage rates—and are swooping in with all-cash offers that can’t be matched by their younger counterparts.

Fleming cited three key ways the economy and housing market of today seem to “rhyme” with that of the 1980s, noting that both periods featured high inflation, rising interest rates, and a boom of homebuyers coming of age. These three factors could create a similar “housing recession” to the one four decades ago, Fleming argues—one where home sales stay low in a frozen, unaffordable market, but home prices merely stagnate.

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes,” Fleming wrote in a Mark Twain–ish flourish.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 67 Comments