Slowdown?

From Reuters:

Early signs of cooling housing market seen in some U.S. cities, Redfin says

There are early signs of a cooldown in some of the hottest corners of the U.S. housing market, Redfin said in a report on Friday, a fresh indication that high house prices and rising mortgage rates are cutting into homebuyer demand.

Among those early tells, according to Redfin: Google searches for “homes for sale” dropped by double digits in Baltimore, Boston, San Francisco and Los Angeles in the second week of March from a year earlier; tours of homes for sale in California were down 21% as of March 31 from the first week of 2022, data from ShowingTime shows; Redfin agents in San Francisco, Los Angeles, Washington DC, Boston and Seattle reported a drop in requests for homebuying help at the start of this year compared with last year, even as requests nationwide surged; and agents in California say they are seeing fewer offers on each home than previously.

The average interest rate on a 30-year-fixed mortgage, the most popular U.S. home loan, rose last week to 4.9%, a fresh three year high, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed this week.

The U.S. housing market is still hot, however, even in cooling California cities. The average home in Los Angeles, for instance, is sold for 5% over its asking price, with a record share selling within a week of listing, Redfin said.

But the signs are there already, the report said, of a price slowdown in coming months.

Posted in National Real Estate, Price Reduced | 71 Comments

Welcome to 2007

From Forbes:

The housing market just hit a level not seen since 2007

The financial sting of soaring home prices—up 32.6% over the past two years—was lessened, to a degree, by historically low mortgage rates during the pandemic. Even as prices soared, many buyers’ monthly payments remained reasonable. Those days are behind us: Now that rates have returned to pre-pandemic levels, new homebuyers are starting to feel the full weight of record prices.

Back in December the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sat at 3.11%. A borrower who took out a $500,000 mortgage at that 3.11% rate would’ve seen a monthly principal and interest payment of $2,137. Now that the average rate is up to 4.72%, a new loan at that size would equal a $2,599 monthly payment. Over the course of 30 years, that’s an additional $166,106.

This swift jump in mortgage rates puts homebuyers in the worst position since 2007. At least that’s according to one metric produced by Black Knight, a mortgage technology and data provider. 

At current mortgage rate levels, the typical American household would have to spend 29% of their monthly income if they were to make a mortgage payment on the average priced U.S. home. That’s according to data provided by Black Knight to Fortune. Black Knight’s mortgage payment-to-income ratio—which averaged 19.9% during the 2010s decade—hasn’t topped 29% since 2007. It also marks a massive jump from December, when the ratio was sitting at 24%.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages | 173 Comments

Donuts anyone?

From Bloomberg:

New Yorkers Plan to Cut Time Spent in the Office by Half, Survey Finds

Most New Yorkers who worked from home during the pandemic plan to cut their time in the office by nearly half and spend less money in the city annually, illustrating the challenges the city faces as companies adjust to hybrid schedules. 

The average New York City office worker intends to reduce time in the office by 49% and slash annual spending in the city by $6,730, down from an estimated $12,561 before the pandemic, according to Nicholas Bloom, an economics professor at Stanford University. 

At a conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Thursday, Bloom said the remote work push could cost New York between 5% and 10% of its city-center population, softening real-estate values, but that “the city will continue to thrive.” 

New York City is second to San Francisco in terms of reduction of time in the office, but first in terms of decreased spending.

“People used to live in cities because they had to come into the office five days a week,” said Bloom, who has surveyed about 5,000 workers and 1,000 companies about their work habits and policies throughout the pandemic. “If they don’t have to, and they want a backyard, they move out to the suburbs. We see that across cities, and call it the doughnut effect.”  

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 233 Comments

Welcome back to five

From CNBC:

30-year fixed mortgage crosses 5% 

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage just crossed 5%, now standing at 5.02%, according to Mortgage News Daily. This is the first time it has crossed that threshold since 2011, save two days in 2018. It stood at 3.38% one year ago today. 

Mortgage rates, which follow loosely the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury, have been climbing since the start of the year, partially due to the Federal Reserve’s policies to curb inflation as well as the global economic turmoil resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Bonds were already having a rough morning, but then comments from Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard that the pace of the Fed’s balance sheet reductions would be significantly bigger than last time and that the maximum pace of reductions would be achieved significantly sooner hit bonds hard.

“To hear her speak about bond-buying adjustments in such blunt, urgent terms is unsettling for the market with just over 24 hours to go before we see the minutes from the most recent Fed meeting,” said Matthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily. “At this point, traders are taking Brainard’s comments to foreshadow an extremely unfriendly conversation about bond buying to be revealed in the minutes.”

Posted in Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 90 Comments

The B-Word

From CBS News:

Federal Reserve issues warning over “brewing U.S. housing bubble”

Homebuyers have faced a tough choice during the pandemic: Swallow rapid price increases and forgo typical steps like house inspections, or risk getting left out of the real estate market. Those dynamics have caused some observers to question whether the U.S. is repeating the housing bubble of the early 2000s, which led to a painful housing crash in 2006 and the Great Recession the following year. 

The answer, warns the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, is that the property market is showing “signs of a brewing U.S. housing bubble.”

That may be unsettling to millions of potential homebuyers who are coping with myriad financial pressure points. For one, mortgage rates are swiftly rising, reaching an average of 4.67% for a fixed 30-year loan for the week ended March 31 — the highest since 2018, according to Freddie Mac. And the national median listing price for a home has jumped to a record $405,000, Realtor.com said on March 31.

First, the economists looked at a statistical model that tracks “exuberance,” or when prices increase at an exponential rate that can’t be justified by economic fundamentals. When their exuberance measure reaches a 95% threshold, that signals 95% confidence that the market is experiencing “abnormal explosive behavior,” they noted.

The current exuberance measure: 115%.

Next, the economists looked at another measure of valuation: Comparing home prices against the sum of discounted future rents. It’s a similar concept to how investors determine the value of a stock by looking at discounted future dividends, the economists noted.

That, too, is showing exuberance that is “comparable to the run-up of the last housing boom,” they said. 

Third, the analysts examined the ratio of home prices to disposable income, another measure of housing affordability. This hasn’t risen to the level of exuberance, but the economists noted that household disposable income was buoyed during the pandemic by stimulus checks as well as a decrease in household spending due to lockdowns — transitory factors, in other words.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 158 Comments

Did NYC kill NYC?

From the NY Post:

NY’s job deficit continues to grow from already high pre-pandemic levels: federal data

New York still has 454,000 fewer private-sector jobs than it had two years ago before the coronavirus pandemic hammered the city and state — a 4.1 percent employment deficit that is the worst in the mainland U.S., an analysis of new federal labor statistics reveals.

As of February, job counts in 21 states had surpassed their pre-pandemic employment levels, according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The US as a whole recovered 19.6 million of the 21 million jobs lost in the spring of 2020 –putting it within 1.1 percent of fully recovering all the jobs lost during the pandemic, said the analysis of the federal jobs data by EJ McMahon, senior fellow with the Empire Center for Public Policy.

But New York State was still 4.1 percent below its pre-pandemic employment level. The city’s population has also plummeted — particularly in Manhattan. 

“On a percentage basis, only Hawaii and Alaska were worse off,” McMahon said.

McMahon said the COVID-19 lockdowns and other public health restrictions that impacted commerce doesn’t explain why New York has lagged in job recovery.

Neighboring New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts were also hit hard and early by the COVID-19 outbreak and imposed identical lockdowns and restrictions starting in March 2020. So, did California.

Yet New Jersey and California are less than a half percentage point away — 0.4% — from recovering all the pre-pandemic jobs reported in February 2020.

Meanwhile, Florida and Texas have added jobs during the pandemic — 3.4% and 2.9% respectively.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, NYC | 173 Comments

A lot to stomach

From Fortune:

The housing market faces its biggest test yet

There has been no shortage of theories on how the ongoing housing boom is going to end. Reopening corporate offices were supposed to tamp down on remote workers buying in far-flung places. As stimulus aid got further in the rearview mirror, it was thought home shoppers would pull back. And the wind-down of the government’s mortgage forbearance program last fall was projected to pile additional inventory onto the market.

So far, nothing has done much to slow down the housing market.

But the red-hot housing market now faces its biggest test yet: Soaring mortgage rates

Over the past 12 weeks, mortgage rates have posted their largest jump since the ’90s. As of March 24, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 4.42%—up from 3.11% in December. And it isn’t over yet: Industry insiders tell Fortune it’s likely to go higher this week.

When the pandemic struck two years ago, the Federal Reserve quickly put downward pressure on mortgage rates. By the summer of 2020, the average rate was below 3%. The enticement of record low mortgage rates encouraged more buyers to jump into the market. As home prices soared, those low rates also helped to alleviate some of the burden for homebuyers. But as mortgage rates rise, it will have the opposite effect: Higher rates will increase buyer’s borrowing costs at a time when they’re already stretched thin by record home price growth. Simply put: This swift move up in mortgage rates amounts to an economic shock.

“If rates rise above 5% you will price buyers out of the market,” Devyn Bachman, vice president of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, tells Fortune. “The higher rates could also discourage investor activity, which accounts for a large portion of home sales today.”

To see why spiking mortgage rates put downward pressure on a housing market, just look at buyers’ monthly payments. If a borrower takes out a $400,000 mortgage at a 3.11% fixed rate, they’d owe a monthly payment of $1,710 over 30 years. At a 4.42% rate that payment climbs $2,008. But if rates do climb to 5%, that mortgage payment becomes a whopping $2,147. That’s a lot to stomach—especially when considering they’re shopping in a market where U.S. home prices are up 18.8% over the past year

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 294 Comments

NJ Unemployment down to 4.6%

From the APP:

NJ has regained nearly 90% of jobs lost to pandemic, and pay is rising too

New Jersey employers added 25,900 jobs in February, the state Department of Labor and Workforce Development reported Thursday, continuing the job market’s rapid recovery from the early days of the pandemic.

The job growth helped the unemployment rate drop to 4.6% from 5.1% in January. Part of that decline was due to fewer people actively looking for work.

But employers that once offered minimum wage now are offering upwards of $17 an hour, a sign that job hunters continue to have the upper hand.

February’s jobs report was the strongest since last July and showed that New Jersey is making up ground.

Through February, New Jersey recovered 89.9% of the jobs it lost in March and April of 2020, while the U.S. recovered 90.4%, according to Rutgers University economist James W. Hughes.

Job growth in February was spread across most sectors. Trade, transportation and utilities added 9,000 jobs; leisure and hospitality added 5,200 jobs; and education and health services added 4,300 jobs.

Financial activities was flat, and the public sector lost 300 jobs.

The recovery has left some sectors faring better than others. Trade, transportation and utilities, a sector that includes New Jersey’s hot warehouse industry, has more than made up for the jobs it lost in March and April 2020, according to the February report.

Leisure and hospitality remains 4.5% below its pre-pandemic peak. It’s not for a lack of trying. In Brick alone, Five Guys is offering up to $17.50 an hour for crew members, while Houlihan’s is advertising a signing bonus of $250 for servers, hosts and hostesses and bussers.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 40 Comments

Where did they all go?

From the NY Post:

Startling data reveals how many people have fled NYC during COVID pandemic

The Big Apple’s population has been hollowed out during the COVID-19 pandemic — with Manhattan suffering the biggest population decline among all US counties, according to grim census data released Thursday.

New York County saw its population plunge by 110,958 or 6.9% between July 2020 and July 2021 — coinciding with the coronavirus pandemic.

New York City accounted for four of the top US counties with population losses.

Hudson County in neighboring New Jersey also landed in the top 10, which means the NY metropolitan region accounted for five of the top 10 counties with population losses.

Brooklyn’s population declined by 86,341 residents or 3.5%, the sixth worst percentage in the nation.

The number of residents in “the boogie down” Bronx sunk by 41,490 or 3.2% — the eighth highest percentage drop.

Queens County followed in ninth place with a 3.1% decrease, or 64,648 population loss.

Meanwhile 20,192 people fled Hudson County, or 3.1%. During the 12-month period, the city’s population as a whole plummeted by 3.5 percent or 305,665 people.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 78 Comments

Should I stay or should I go?

From the Star Ledger:

Most residents say N.J. is a good place to live, but a third want to leave, poll shows

The majority of New Jerseyans like living here, but more than a third say they’d like to move out, a new poll has found.

Nearly 6 in 10 adult residents say the Garden State is an “excellent” (14%) or “good” (44%) place to live, according to the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released Thursday morning, while 28% say it’s “only fair” and 14% say it’s “poor.”

Meanwhile, half of residents say they would move out of their current neighborhood if they could — including a record 36% who say they would move to another state.

“New Jerseyans’ views on the Garden State as a place to live have remained stable the past several years but over the decades have gradually become less positive,” said Ashley Koning, director the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University and an assistant research professor at the school.

Koning said three-quarters of the state called New Jersey an excellent or good place to live in the mid-1990s and early 2000s while 80% said the same in the mid- to late 1980s.

Results from this poll have been released intermittently in recent weeks. Fifty-two percent of adult residents said New Jersey is on the wrong track, while 38% say it’s headed in the right direction, according to results released Monday.

Thursday’s results show Democrats are happier in New Jersey than their counterparts, with 74% saying the state is excellent or good, compared to 54% of independents and 47% of Republicans.

South Jersey residents (50%), those in the lowest income bracket (52%) and those with a high school education or less are the only other groups where more than half rate the state negatively.

Forty-two percent overall would continuing living where they are if they had the chance to move. Of the half that would move out of their current neighborhood, 3% would move within the same town, 13% would move to another town, and 36% say they would get out of state.

“New Jerseyans’ desire to move has increased by double digits over the last decade,” Koning said. “These latest numbers set an all-time high in the poll’s history of asking this question for those who want to move out of state and an all-time low for those who want to stay.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 187 Comments

All eyes on school budgets

From the Star Ledger:

Jersey City slams $1,600 school tax hike, but education group says sides ‘need to figure how to make that work’

The Fulop administration slammed the Jersey City Board of Education for its $1,600-per-average-homeowner tax hike in next year’s budget, but an education advocacy group says the city and the school board need to “figure out how to make that work.”

The BOE struggled to pass in a 5-4 vote its nearly $1 billion budget as it trimmed the school tax in the 2022-23 budget from $2,400 to $1,600 a year in additional school taxes. The increase comes one year after the district — gashed by steep cuts in state aid — raised taxes by $993 to the average homeowner last year.

City spokeswoman Kimberly Wallace-Scalcione said Interim Superintendent Norma Fernandez and the school board are “wrong” for raising school taxes once again.

Education Law Center Research Director Danielle Fairre said even with the tax increase, the school district is still $100 million below its “local fair share,” the amount the state believes local taxpayers should kick in for their school district’s budget. She said the Jersey City district should not look to the state for help.

“The pace at which Jersey City is now expected to make up for the years of underfunding their local obligation may be unfair or unrealistic,” Fairre said. “We would support other creative solutions between the city and the BOE, but the fact is that the students in JCPS deserve adequate funding and resources.

‘The city and the district need to figure out how to make that work.”

Wallace-Scalcione said the district has “bloated salaries in their central office and have not looked at any common-sense changes that have been recommended to them for years.”

“The big question for Jersey City residents is over the last few years, where Jersey City residents have put thousands more into the schools by the Board of Education raising taxes, have the schools in Jersey City showed any meaningful progress or reform for that money?” Wallace-Scalcione said. “Sadly, the answer is no.”

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 132 Comments

Uh Oh Time Yet?

From Marketwatch:

‘The housing market is in the early stages of a substantial downshift’: Home sales may drop 25% by the end of summer, according to this analyst

The popular spring home-buying season is just ramping up. But one analyst is warning that it could be a bust.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist and founder of research consulting firm Pantheon Macroeconomics, is predicting a dramatic fall in the pace of home sales this year. In a research note, he projected that existing-home sales will drop roughly 25% from the annual pace of 6.02 million set in February to a rate of 4.5 million by the end of summer.

“The housing market is in the early stages of a substantial downshift in activity, which will trigger a steep decline in the rate of increase of home prices, starting perhaps as soon as the spring,” Shepherdson wrote in a research note distributed Sunday.

As evidence of this expected slowdown in home sales, Shepherdson pointed to mortgage demand. The most recent data on mortgage applications from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that the number of applications for loans used to purchase homes is down more than 8% compared to a year ago. Comparatively, demand for refinancing has dropped nearly 50% versus last year.

A drop in mortgage demand could predict a downturn in home sales, since most buyers rely on financing to make sure a large purchase. Issues around affordability are likely to blame for the decline. As of Thursday, the average interest rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage surpassed 4% for the first time since May 2019, according to Freddie Mac FMCC, +2.96%.

Per Shepherdson’s calculations, the rise in mortgage rates since September has increased the cost of a monthly mortgage payment for a median-priced home by more than $400, or 27%.

“That’s a huge increase, even for households sitting on savings accumulated during the pandemic—a one-time increase in savings can’t finance an increase in mortgage payments for the next 30 years—and it will push demand down a good deal further,” he wrote.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 128 Comments

Top?

From Yahoo Finance:

Sales of U.S. Previously Owned Homes Decline to a Six-Month Low

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell in February by more than forecast to a six-month low as a limited supply of properties and high prices deterred potential buyers.

Contract closings decreased 7.2% in February from the prior month to an annualized 6.02 million, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed Friday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a 6.1 million annualized rate in February. The monthly drop was the biggest in a year.

“Housing affordability continues to be a major challenge, as buyers are getting a double whammy: rising mortgage rates and sustained price increases,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement Friday.

The slide in sales reflects a market still constrained by a lack of inventory, which in February was the second-lowest on record. Buyers are bidding up prices on the few homes available. Meantime, affordability is showing signs of worsening, especially among first-time buyers.

Builders are facing high materials costs, especially in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and mortgage rates already at an almost three-year high will keep climbing as the Federal Reserve tightens policy. Meantime, broad-based inflation is driving up the costs of necessities like gasoline, food and rent.

The NAR data showed that the number of homes for sale rose from a month earlier — typical this time of year — but were still 15.5% lower than a year ago. At the current pace it would take 1.7 months to sell all the homes on the market, close to a record low. Realtors see anything below five months of supply as a sign of a tight market.

The median selling price rose 15% from a year earlier, to $357,300 in February.

First-time buyers accounted for 29% of sales last month, down from 31% a year earlier. Yun said at current rates, monthly mortgage payments are up 28% from February last year.


All four regions posted sales declines, led by sizable drops in the Northeast and Midwest

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 188 Comments

Bye bye cheap mortgages?

From the MPA:

Mortgage rates – historically low era comes to an end

The 30-year mortgage rate climbed above the 4% mark shortly after the Federal Reserve approved its first interest rate hike in more than three years.

Freddie Mac reported that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.16% for the week ending March 17, a significant jump from 3.85% a week ago. At this time last year, the benchmark rate was only 3.09%.

“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage exceeded 4% for the first time since May of 2019,” said Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac. “The Federal Reserve raising short-term rates and signaling further increases means mortgage rates should continue to rise over the course of the year.”

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage is now 30 basis points higher than a week ago, up to 3.39%. The five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage jumped from 2.97% to 3.19%.

The spike in mortgage rates has already started to hamper mortgage application activity. According to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, overall mortgage apps dropped 1.2% week over week, with refinance activity declining by 3% and purchase applications edging down by 1%.

“While home purchase demand has moderated, it remains competitive due to low existing inventory, suggesting high house price pressures will continue during the spring homebuying season,” Khater said.

Posted in Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 65 Comments

Sounds familiar

From Reuters:

First-time U.S. home buyers feeling ‘defeated’ by soaring prices, rising rates

Brianna Lombardozzi finally has her finances to a point where she might be able to buy a house. But she isn’t feeling great about her odds.

Lombardozzi, 37, used her federal stimulus checks and other savings built up during the pandemic to pay down the majority of her credit card debt – a move that helped her credit score rise by almost 100 points.

But competition is intense for homes in her price range of $175,000 to $225,000 in Central, South Carolina, and she has had four bids rejected over the past month. Now with mortgage rates rising, she doesn’t know if she’ll find an affordable property before her lease is up at the end of May.

“Right now, I feel a little defeated,” said Lombardozzi, who works in housing for a local university.

As home prices soar, housing affordability is sinking to the lowest levels since 2008 and first-time buyers – who haven’t benefited from rising home values and are also coping with rising rents – are being squeezed out.

At the end of 2021, housing affordability dropped to the lowest levels since November of 2008, with households earning the median income needing to spend nearly 33% of their income to afford payments on a median-priced home, according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve. Housing is generally viewed as affordable when households spend no more than 30% of their income on shelter.

Affordability may be strained even further by rising mortgage rates. Some people who had been pre-approved for a mortgage may find they no longer qualify for the same maximum loan amount after mortgage rates rise, said Jennifer Beeston, a senior vice president of mortgage lending for Guaranteed Rate, a mortgage lender.

First-time buyers are already struggling to compete with all-cash offers, including from institutional investors such as private-equity funds, which are taking up a greater share of purchases and are viewed as less risky by sellers, analysts say. Cash purchases accounted for 27% of sales in January, up from 19% a year earlier, according NAR.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 284 Comments